Türkiye’nin 2030 CO2 Emisyon Hedefinin Holt-Winters Üstel Düzeltme Modeli ile Tahmini

Yıl 2025, Sayı: Özel Sayı 3, 109 - 127, 31.12.2025

İlknur Yeşim Dinçel Kıratoğlu

https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1834216

Öz

Bu çalışma Paris Anlaşması ile taahhüt edilen, Türkiye’nin karbon emisyon hedefinin gerçekleşebilme durumunun orta vadeli olarak tahmin edilmesini amaçlamaktadır. Bu kapsamda Holt-Winter Üstel Düzeltme modeli ile aşırı uyum riski azaltılarak Türkiye'nin 2024-2030 dönemi karbon emisyon düzeyi %95 güven aralığında tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, emisyonların 2030 yılına kadar artmaya devam ederek yaklaşık 600 MtCO₂e düzeyine ulaşacağını göstermektedir. Bu tahmin ise Türkiye'nin referans senaryoya göre %41 azaltım taahhüdü içeren Güncellenmiş Ulusal Katkı Beyanı ile paralel bir sonuçtur. Zira katkı beyanı ile oldukça eleştiri alan bir hedef olarak; mutlak bir emisyon azalışından ziyade, artıştan azaltım mantığı kurgulanmıştır. Referans senaryo baz alınarak emisyon azaltımı yerine, emisyon artış hızının azaltılması hedeflenmiştir. Çalışma bulguları da Paris Anlaşması kapsamındaki resmi taahhüt ile uyumludur. Türkiye’nin 2053 net sıfır emisyon hedefine ulaşmak için çok daha katı iklim ve enerji politikalarına ihtiyaç duyduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CO₂ Emisyonu Tahmini , Holt–Winters Üstel Düzeltme , sürdürülebilir kalkınma

Forecasting of Türkiye's 2030 CO₂ Emission Target Using The Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing Model

Öz

This study aims to estimate, in the medium term, the feasibility of achieving Turkey's carbon emission target as committed under the Paris Agreement.. Using the Holt–Winters exponential smoothing model, which mitigates overfitting in short annual series, it estimates Türkiye’s CO₂ emissions for 2024–2030 within a 95% confidence interval. The findings indicate that emissions will continue to rise until 2030, reaching roughly 600 MtCO₂e. This forecast is consistent with Türkiye’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution, which envisages a 41% reduction relative to a reference scenario. However, the pledge has been widely criticised, as it is framed not as an absolute reduction in emissions, but as a “reduction from increase”, targeting a slower growth rate in emissions rather than a decline relative to current levels. The results confirm this logic and show that, under existing commitments, Türkiye will fall short of a decarbonisation path, implying a need for stricter climate and energy policies to meet the 2053 net-zero goal.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CO₂ Emissions Forecasting , Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing , Sustainable Development

Kaynakça

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