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Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 115, 103 - 118, 13.04.2021

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad, N., Aghdam, R. F., Butt, I., & Naveed, A. (2020). Citation-based systematic literature review of energy-growth nexus: An overview of the field and content analysis of the top 50 influential papers. Energy Economics, 86(104642). doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104642
  • Albulescu, A. T. (2020). Coronvirus and oil price crash. HAL archives ouvertes. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02507184v2 adresinden alındı
  • Albulescu, C. (2020). Do Covid-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertanity? arXiv:2003.07591v1 [q-fin.CP]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.07591 adresinden alındı
  • Aloui, R., Gupta, R., & Miller, S. M. (2016). Uncertanity and crude oil returns. Energy Economics, 55, 92-100. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.012
  • Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., . . . Thwaites, G. (2020). Economic uncertanity before and during Covid-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics(104274), 1-30. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104274
  • Antonakasis, N., Chatziantoniou, I., & Filis, G. (2014). Dynamic spillovers of oil price shpck and economic policy uncertanity. Energy Economics, 44, 433-447. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.05.007
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Bohl, M. T. (2000). German Monetary Unification and The STability of the German M3 Money Demand Function. Economic Letters, 66(2).
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertanity. the National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Berger, T., & Uddin, G. S. (2016). On the deynamic dependence between equity markets, commodity futures and economic uncertanity indexes. Energy Economics, 56, 374-383. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.024
  • Bilgin, Bilgin, M. H., Demir, E., Gozgor, G., Karabulut , G., & Kaya, H. (2019). A novel index of macroeconomic uncertanity for Turkey based on Google-Trends. Economics Letter, 184(10861), 1-5. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108601
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., & Kima, R. (2020). The global effects of covid-19-induced uncertanity. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 11/2020 ssrn.
  • Castelnuovo, E., & Tran, T. D. (2017). Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia. Econom. Letter, 161, 149-153. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.032
  • Chen, X., Sun, X., & Li, J. (2020). How does economic policy uncertanity react to oil price shocks? A multi-scale perspective. Applied Economic Letters, 3, 188-193. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2019.1610704
  • Cunado, J., & Perez de Garcia, F. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for soma Asian countries. Q.Rev.Econ.Financ., 45(1), 65-83.
  • Degiannakis, S., Filis, G., & Panagiotakopoulou, S. (2018). Oil price shocks and uncertanity: How stable is their relationship overtime? Economic Modelling, 72, 42-53. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.004
  • Geyikçi, U. B. (2017). Analysing of the Relation Between Stock Markets and Economic Growth in Turkey by ARDL Bound Test. Journal of Business Research, 9(3), 197-212. doi:DOI: 10.20491/isarder.2017.295
  • Hailemariam, A., Smyth, R., & Zhang, X. (2019). Oil price and economic policy uncertanity: Evidence from nonparametric panel data model. Energy Economics, 83, 40-51.
  • Jeris, S. S., & Nath, R. D. (2020). Covid-19, oil price and UK economiy policy uncertanity: evidence from the ARDL approach. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(3), 503-514. doi:DOI: 10.3934/QFE.2020023
  • Kang, W., & Ratti, R. A. (2013). Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertanity. Economic Modelling, 36, 314-19.
  • Kang, W., Ratti, R. A., & Vespignani, J. L. (2017). Oil price shocks and policy uncertanity: New evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production. Energy Economics, 66, 56-546. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.01.027
  • Matuka, A. (2020, September). Covid-19 outbreak and US economic policy. doi:Matuka, Adelajda, COVID-19 Outbreak and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: An ARDhttp://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3685346
  • Menegaki, A. N. (2019). The ARDL Method in the EnergyGrowth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies. Economies, 7(105), 1-16. doi:doi:10.3390/economies7040105
  • Montasser, G. E., Aggad, K., Clark, L., Gupta , R., & Kemp, S. (2014). Causal link between oil price and uncertanity in India. University of Pretoria.
  • Moran, K., Stevanovic, D., & Toure, A. K. (2020). Macroeconomic uncertanity and the Covid-19 pandemic: measure and impacts on the Canadian economy. Centre de recherche sur les risques les enjeux économiques et les politiques publiques.
  • Narayan, P. (2004). Reformulating critical values for the bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: an application to the tourism demand model for Fiji. Australia Monash University, 1-40.
  • Narayan, S., & Narayan, P. K. (2005). An emprical analysis of Fiji's import demand function. Journal of Economic Studies, 32, 158-168. doi:10.1108/01443580510600931
  • Pata, U. K. (2020). Covid-19 Induced economic uncertanity: A comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States. ssrn: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3637652 adresinden alındı
  • Peseran, M. H., & Peseran, B. (1997). Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. ounral of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Quadan, M., & Nama, H. (2018). Investor sentiment and the price of oil. Energy Economics, 69, 42-58. doi:doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.10.035
  • Rahman, S., & Serletis, A. (2011). The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks. Macroecon. Dyn., 15(s3), 437-471.
  • Rehman, M. U. (2018). Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertanity? Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 498, 123-136. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.12.133
  • Sharif, A., Aloui, C., & Yaroyava, L. (2020). Covid-19 pandemic, oil prices , stock market and policy uncertanity nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the WaveletBased Approach. ssrn: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3574699. adresinden alındı
  • Sun, X., Chen, X., Wang, J., & Li, J. (2020). Multiscale interactions netween economic policy uncertanity and oilprices in time-frequency domains. The North American ournal of Economics and Finance, 51. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.10.002
  • TradingEconomics. (2020). GDP G20. Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp?continent=g20 adresinden alındı
  • Tursoy, T., & Faisal, F. (2016). Causality between stock price and GDP in Turkey: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach. Romanian Statistical Review, 4, 3-20.
  • Wang, Y. (2019). The impact of oil price shocks on economic policy uncertanity of China: Evidence from nonlinear analysis. Advance in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research. Atlantis Press. doi:https://doi.org/10.2991/ssmi-19.2019.79.

The Impact of Covid-19 and Crude Oil Price on Economic Policy Uncertainty; Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy

Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 115, 103 - 118, 13.04.2021

Öz

This study measured the short-run and long-run effects of Covid-19 on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) using daily data from 04.04.2020 to 16.09.2020 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. In addition, the impact of crude oil price on EPU was measured.According to the ARDL bound test results, Covid-19 new deaths and Covid-19 new cases had a significant impact on the EPU in both short-run and long-run, while the effect of recovery was not found. In addition, the Brent crude oil price also has an inverse and significant effect on the EPU. The findings of the study show that while the decline in oil price is expected to cause a decrease in the current account deficit and therefore a decrease in uncertainty in an emerging economy where the current account deficit creates extreme fragility, Covid-19 has increased uncertainty by dominating this situation.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad, N., Aghdam, R. F., Butt, I., & Naveed, A. (2020). Citation-based systematic literature review of energy-growth nexus: An overview of the field and content analysis of the top 50 influential papers. Energy Economics, 86(104642). doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104642
  • Albulescu, A. T. (2020). Coronvirus and oil price crash. HAL archives ouvertes. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02507184v2 adresinden alındı
  • Albulescu, C. (2020). Do Covid-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertanity? arXiv:2003.07591v1 [q-fin.CP]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.07591 adresinden alındı
  • Aloui, R., Gupta, R., & Miller, S. M. (2016). Uncertanity and crude oil returns. Energy Economics, 55, 92-100. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.012
  • Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., . . . Thwaites, G. (2020). Economic uncertanity before and during Covid-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics(104274), 1-30. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104274
  • Antonakasis, N., Chatziantoniou, I., & Filis, G. (2014). Dynamic spillovers of oil price shpck and economic policy uncertanity. Energy Economics, 44, 433-447. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.05.007
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Bohl, M. T. (2000). German Monetary Unification and The STability of the German M3 Money Demand Function. Economic Letters, 66(2).
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertanity. the National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Berger, T., & Uddin, G. S. (2016). On the deynamic dependence between equity markets, commodity futures and economic uncertanity indexes. Energy Economics, 56, 374-383. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.024
  • Bilgin, Bilgin, M. H., Demir, E., Gozgor, G., Karabulut , G., & Kaya, H. (2019). A novel index of macroeconomic uncertanity for Turkey based on Google-Trends. Economics Letter, 184(10861), 1-5. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108601
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., & Kima, R. (2020). The global effects of covid-19-induced uncertanity. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 11/2020 ssrn.
  • Castelnuovo, E., & Tran, T. D. (2017). Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia. Econom. Letter, 161, 149-153. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.032
  • Chen, X., Sun, X., & Li, J. (2020). How does economic policy uncertanity react to oil price shocks? A multi-scale perspective. Applied Economic Letters, 3, 188-193. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2019.1610704
  • Cunado, J., & Perez de Garcia, F. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for soma Asian countries. Q.Rev.Econ.Financ., 45(1), 65-83.
  • Degiannakis, S., Filis, G., & Panagiotakopoulou, S. (2018). Oil price shocks and uncertanity: How stable is their relationship overtime? Economic Modelling, 72, 42-53. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.004
  • Geyikçi, U. B. (2017). Analysing of the Relation Between Stock Markets and Economic Growth in Turkey by ARDL Bound Test. Journal of Business Research, 9(3), 197-212. doi:DOI: 10.20491/isarder.2017.295
  • Hailemariam, A., Smyth, R., & Zhang, X. (2019). Oil price and economic policy uncertanity: Evidence from nonparametric panel data model. Energy Economics, 83, 40-51.
  • Jeris, S. S., & Nath, R. D. (2020). Covid-19, oil price and UK economiy policy uncertanity: evidence from the ARDL approach. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(3), 503-514. doi:DOI: 10.3934/QFE.2020023
  • Kang, W., & Ratti, R. A. (2013). Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertanity. Economic Modelling, 36, 314-19.
  • Kang, W., Ratti, R. A., & Vespignani, J. L. (2017). Oil price shocks and policy uncertanity: New evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production. Energy Economics, 66, 56-546. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.01.027
  • Matuka, A. (2020, September). Covid-19 outbreak and US economic policy. doi:Matuka, Adelajda, COVID-19 Outbreak and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: An ARDhttp://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3685346
  • Menegaki, A. N. (2019). The ARDL Method in the EnergyGrowth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies. Economies, 7(105), 1-16. doi:doi:10.3390/economies7040105
  • Montasser, G. E., Aggad, K., Clark, L., Gupta , R., & Kemp, S. (2014). Causal link between oil price and uncertanity in India. University of Pretoria.
  • Moran, K., Stevanovic, D., & Toure, A. K. (2020). Macroeconomic uncertanity and the Covid-19 pandemic: measure and impacts on the Canadian economy. Centre de recherche sur les risques les enjeux économiques et les politiques publiques.
  • Narayan, P. (2004). Reformulating critical values for the bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: an application to the tourism demand model for Fiji. Australia Monash University, 1-40.
  • Narayan, S., & Narayan, P. K. (2005). An emprical analysis of Fiji's import demand function. Journal of Economic Studies, 32, 158-168. doi:10.1108/01443580510600931
  • Pata, U. K. (2020). Covid-19 Induced economic uncertanity: A comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States. ssrn: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3637652 adresinden alındı
  • Peseran, M. H., & Peseran, B. (1997). Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. ounral of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Quadan, M., & Nama, H. (2018). Investor sentiment and the price of oil. Energy Economics, 69, 42-58. doi:doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.10.035
  • Rahman, S., & Serletis, A. (2011). The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks. Macroecon. Dyn., 15(s3), 437-471.
  • Rehman, M. U. (2018). Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertanity? Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 498, 123-136. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.12.133
  • Sharif, A., Aloui, C., & Yaroyava, L. (2020). Covid-19 pandemic, oil prices , stock market and policy uncertanity nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the WaveletBased Approach. ssrn: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3574699. adresinden alındı
  • Sun, X., Chen, X., Wang, J., & Li, J. (2020). Multiscale interactions netween economic policy uncertanity and oilprices in time-frequency domains. The North American ournal of Economics and Finance, 51. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.10.002
  • TradingEconomics. (2020). GDP G20. Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp?continent=g20 adresinden alındı
  • Tursoy, T., & Faisal, F. (2016). Causality between stock price and GDP in Turkey: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach. Romanian Statistical Review, 4, 3-20.
  • Wang, Y. (2019). The impact of oil price shocks on economic policy uncertanity of China: Evidence from nonlinear analysis. Advance in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research. Atlantis Press. doi:https://doi.org/10.2991/ssmi-19.2019.79.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme Finans
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Umut Burak GEYİKCİ> (Sorumlu Yazar)
MANISA CELAL BAYAR UNIVERSITY
0000-0002-4285-2151
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 13 Nisan 2021
Başvuru Tarihi 13 Ekim 2020
Kabul Tarihi 21 Mart 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 115

Kaynak Göster

APA Geyikci, U. B. (2021). The Impact of Covid-19 and Crude Oil Price on Economic Policy Uncertainty; Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy . Maliye ve Finans Yazıları , (115) , 103-118 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/mfy/issue/61345/810332

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