Uluslararası Göçün İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Avrupa Ülkelerine Yönelik Ampirik Bir Analiz

Öz

Avrupa göçmen hareketlerinin yoğun olduğu bir coğrafya olarak dikkat çekmektedir. II. Dünya Savaşı, Berlin Duvarının yıkılışı, Afrika ve Latin Amerika ile olan bağlantıları nedeniyle bölge yoğun bir şekilde göç almıştır. 2000’li yıllardan sonra, özellikle Afganistan, Ortadoğu ve Afrika’da yaşanan savaş, iç çatışma ve politik istikrarsızlıklar göç hareketlerini daha da artırmıştır. Göç hareketlerinin sosyal ve siyasi neticeleri olduğu kadar önemli ekonomik sonuçları da bulunmaktadır. Bunların başında işgücü piyasalarında oluşturduğu dalgalanmalar gelmektedir. Çalışma Avrupa ülkelerinde uluslararası göçün işsizlik oranları üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Yöntem olarak panel regresyon analizi tercih edilmektedir. Analizler 27 Avrupa ülkesi için 2000-2017 yılları arasında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik analiz sonuçları uluslararası göçün işsizlik üzerinde istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Ek olarak, GSYİH, kamu harcamaları, eğitim harcamaları ve ücretlerdeki artış işsizlik oranlarını düşürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa
• İşsizlik
• Uluslararası göç
• Göçmenler
• GSYİH
• Panel regresyon analizi

The Effect of International Migration on Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis on the European Countries

Öz

Europe attracts attention in terms of geography where immigrant movements are intense. The region received international migrant heavily because of World War II, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and its connections with Africa and Latin America. After the 2000s, the war, civil conflict and political instability in especially Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa increased the migration movements. Migration movements have important social and political consequences as well as economic consequences. The most essential of these is the fluctuations in the labour market. The study aims to empirically investigate the effect of international migration on unemployment rates in European countries. Panel regression analysis is preferred as a method. The analysis performed for 27 European countries and between 2000-2017 years. Empirical analysis results show that international migration does not have a statistically significant effect on unemployment. In addition, increases in GDP, public expenditures, education expenditures and wage rises reduce unemployment rates.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Europe
• Unemployment
• International migration
• Immigrants
• GDP
• Panel regression analysis

Kaynakça

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