Uzun Dönem Denge Döviz Kuru ve Sapmalar: Beer Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışmada, BEER (Davranışsal Denge Döviz Kuru) yaklaşımı ile cari açık sorunu yaşayan 15 gelişmekte olan ülke için 1995-2012 döneminde uzun dönem denge döviz kuru ve sapmaların belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Uygulanan panel veri analizi neticesinde, uzun dönem denge reel efektif döviz kurunun en önemli belirleyicisinin göreli verimlilik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca net yabancı varlık stokundaki değişmelerin de önemli etkiler yarattığı gözlenmiştir. Elde edilen uzun dönem denge reel efektif döviz kuru değerleri, ulusal ve uluslararası ekonomik gelişmelere bağlı olarak denge düzeyinden sapmaların dönemden döneme ve ülkeye göre önemli farklılıklar gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Buna göre, 2008 küresel krizinin reel efektif döviz kurları üzerinde önemli etkilerinin olduğu görülmüştür. Hindistan, Polonya, Hırvatistan ve Litvanya’da reel efektif döviz kurunun uzun dönem denge düzeyinden sapmasının diğer ülkelere oranla düşük oranda olduğu ancak Güney Afrika, Mısır, Gana, Kolombiya, Uruguay, Bulgaristan ve Tunus’ta yüksek oranda olduğu belirlenmiştir. Türkiye için elde edilen sonuçlar, reel efektif döviz kurunun seyrinin genel olarak krizlerin habercisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Reel efektif döviz kurunun 2003’ten itibaren küresel krizin etkilerinin hissedildiği 2009 yılına kadar hem yurtiçi hem de küresel ölçekteki gelişmelere bağlı olarak denge düzeyine göre aşırı değerli olduğu ve sonraki süreçte 2011 yılından itibaren ise yaşanan gelişmelere bağlı olarak düşük değerli bir görünüme sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Davranışsal Denge Döviz Kuru,Denge Döviz Kurundan Sapma,Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler,Panel Veri Analizi

Equilibrium Exchange Rates And Misalignments: The Beer Approach

Öz

In this study, it was aimed to determine the long-run equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments for 15 developing countries with current account deficit in the period of 1995-2016 by using BEER (Behavioral Balance Exchange Rate) approach. As a result of the applied panel data analysis, it was determined that the most important determinant of long-term equilibrium real effective exchange rate is relative productivity. In addition, changes in the net foreign asset stock also have significant effects. The obtained long-run equilibrium real exchange rates showed that the misalignments from the equilibrium level differed significantly from period to period and according to country due to the national and international economic developments. Accordingly, the 2008 global crisis has had significant effects on real effective exchange rates. In India, Poland, Croatia and Lithuania, the misalignments of the real effective exchange rate from the long-run equilibrium level was low compared to other countries, but it was found to be high in South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, Colombia, Uruguay, Bulgaria and Tunisia. The results obtained for Turkey show that the trend of real effective exchange rate is a precursor of crises. It was determined that the real effective exchange rate was overvalued than the equilibrium level due to the developments in both domestic and global scale from 2003 to 2009 when the effects of the global crisis were felt, but it has depreciated due to the developments in the following period beginning from 2011.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Behavioral equilibrium exchange rates,Misalignment from equilibrium exchange rate

Kaynakça

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