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MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 47 - 59, 27.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.525003

Öz

Ulusal
ekonomilerin dışa açık bir uluslararası ticaret politikası benimsemesinin
iktisadi büyümelerine olumlu yönde katkıda bulunacağı hipotezi literatürde uzun
yıllardır tartışılmakta ve büyük ölçüde kabul görmektedir. Bu bağlamda Meksika,
Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye’den oluşan MIST ülkeleri ele alınmış, her bir
ülke için zaman serisi yöntemlerinden Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Toda-Yamamoto
nedensellik analizleri uygulanarak dış ticaret ile büyüme arasındaki ilişki
incelenmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre geliri dış ticaretten en çok etkilenen
ülke Meksika’dır.
Bununla birlikte Meksika, Endonezya ve Türkiye için
dış ticarete dayalı büyüme hipotezi geçerlidir.

Kaynakça

  • Alam, M. S. (1991). Trade orientation and macroeconomic performance in LDCs: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(4), 839-848.
  • Amirkhalkhali, S. ve Dar, A. A. (1995). A varying-coefficients model of export expansion, factor accumulation and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country, time series data. Economic Modelling, 12(4), 435-441.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of development economics, 5(2), 181-189.
  • Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock. Journal of development economics, 18(1), 23-35.
  • Çetintaş, H. ve Barışık, S. (2009). Export, import and economic growth: The case of transition economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636-649.
  • Chandra, R. (2003). Reinvestigating export-led growth in India using a multivariate cointegration framework. The Journal of Developing Areas, 37(1), 73-86.
  • De Gregorio, J. (1992). Economic growth in latin america. Journal of development economics, 39(1), 59-84.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Dreger, C. & Herzer, D. (2011). A Further Examination of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis (Discussion Paper No. 305). Frankfurt: European University Viadrina.
  • Edeme, R. K., Ifelunini, I. A. ve Nkalu, N. C. (2016). A Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth of ECOWAS Countries. Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, 24(05).
  • Ee, C. Y. (2016). Export-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from selected Sub-Saharan African countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35, 232-240.
  • Ekanayake, E. (1999). Exports and economic growth in Asian developing countries: Cointegration and error-correction models. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 43-56.
  • Elbeydi, K. R., Hamuda, A. M. ve Gazda, V. (2010). The relationship between export and economic growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 17(1), 69-76. Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Fitzová, H. ve Zídek, L. (2015). Impact of trade on economic growth in the Czech and Slovak Republics. Economics & Sociology, 8(2), 36-50.
  • Foresti, P. (2006). Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth. MPRA Paper No. 2962.
  • Fosu, A. K. (1996). Primary exports and economic growth in developing countries. World Economy, 19(4), 465-475.
  • Furuoka, F. (2009). Exports and Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis. The Icfai University Journal of Applied Economics, VIII(2), 7-16.
  • Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
  • Granger, C. W. ve Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Helpman, E. (1987). Imperfect competition and international trade: evidence from fourteen industrial countries. Journal of the Japanese and international economies, 1(1), 62-81.
  • Herzer, D. (2010). A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis (Discussion Paper No. 200). Berlin: Ibero America Institute for Economic Research.
  • Hussain, M. A. ve Saaed, A. A. J. (2015). Impact of exports and imports on economic growth: Evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 13-21.
  • Hye, Q. M. A., Wizarat, S. ve Lau, W.-Y. (2013). Trade-led growth hypothesis: An empirical analysis of South Asian countries. Economic Modelling, 35, 654-660.
  • Iheanacho, E. (2017). ARDL approach to trade libralisation and economic growth in the developing country: Evidence from Nigeria. African Research Review, 11(2), 138-159.
  • Ijirshar, V. (2015). The empirical analysis of agricultural exports and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 7(3), 113-122.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-led growth, growth-driven export, both or none? Granger causality analysis on OECD countries. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 1(4), 73-94.
  • Kravis, I. B. (1970). Trade as a handmaiden of growth: Similarities between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The Economic Journal, 80(320), 850-872.
  • Mbaku, J. M. (1989). Export growth and economic performance in developing countries: further evidence from Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 14(2), 127-142.
  • Nelson, C. R. ve Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
  • Newey, W. K. ve West, K. D. (1987). Hypothesis testing with efficient method of moments estimation. International Economic Review, 28(3), 777-787.
  • Nguyen H. T. (2016). Impact of export on economic growth in vietnam: empirical research and recommendations. International Business and Management, 13(3), 45-52.
  • Njimanted, G. F. ve Aquilas, N. A. (2015). The impact of timber exports on economic growth in Cameroon: an econometric investigation. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 3(3), 46-60.
  • Park, J. Y. ve Phillips, P. C. (1989). Statistical inference in regressions with integrated processes: Part 2. Econometric Theory, 5(1), 95-131.
  • Phillips, P. C. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Ram, R. (1985). Exports and economic growth: Some additional evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-425.
  • Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 18(4), 613-623.
  • Raza, M. ve Zhang Ying, X. (2017). The causal relationship between export and economic growth of Pakistan. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 5(2), 210-231.
  • Şahbaz, A., Hüseyin, A. ve Yanar, R. (2014). Seçilmiş Asya ülkeleri için ihracata dayalı büyüme modeli: Panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(22), 24-46.
  • Sharma, S. C. ve Dhakal, D. (1994). Causal analyses between exports and economic growth in developing countries. Applied Economics, 26(12), 1145-1157.
  • Shihab, R. A., Soufan, T. ve Abdul-Khaliq, S. (2014). The causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Jordan. Global Journal of Management And Business Research, 14(3), 17-22.
  • Shirazi, N. S. ve Manap, T. A. A. (2004). Exports and economic growth nexus: The case of Pakistan [with comments]. The Pakistan Development Review, 43(4), 563-581.
  • Sims, C. A. Stock, J. H., ve Watson, M. W. (1990). Inference in linear time series models with some unit roots. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 113-144.
  • Stiglitz, J. E. (2006). Making globalization work. New York: WW Norton & Company.
  • Toda, H. Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Topallı, N. ve Alagöz, M. (2015). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik. International Journal of Social and Economic Sciences (IJSES)(2), 122-126.
  • Tyler, W. G. (1981). Growth and export expansion in developing countries: Some empirical evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 9(1), 121-130.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F. ve Gülmez, A. (2013). Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizi. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 8(1), 145-161.
  • Zang, W. ve Baimbridge, M (2012). Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies. Applied Economics, 44, 361-372.

Imports, Exports and Economic Growth in MIST Countries: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 47 - 59, 27.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.525003

Öz

The hypothesis that an open international trade policy will contribute positively to the economic growth of the countries has been discussed and widely accepted in the literature for many years. In this context, the relationship between foreign trade and growth are discussed for the MİST countries consisting of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey by applying the time series methods which are Johansen co-integration and Toda-Yamamoto causality analyses. According to empirical findings, income of Mexico is the most affected by foreign trade. However, trade-led growth hypothesis is valid for Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Alam, M. S. (1991). Trade orientation and macroeconomic performance in LDCs: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(4), 839-848.
  • Amirkhalkhali, S. ve Dar, A. A. (1995). A varying-coefficients model of export expansion, factor accumulation and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country, time series data. Economic Modelling, 12(4), 435-441.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of development economics, 5(2), 181-189.
  • Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock. Journal of development economics, 18(1), 23-35.
  • Çetintaş, H. ve Barışık, S. (2009). Export, import and economic growth: The case of transition economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636-649.
  • Chandra, R. (2003). Reinvestigating export-led growth in India using a multivariate cointegration framework. The Journal of Developing Areas, 37(1), 73-86.
  • De Gregorio, J. (1992). Economic growth in latin america. Journal of development economics, 39(1), 59-84.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Dreger, C. & Herzer, D. (2011). A Further Examination of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis (Discussion Paper No. 305). Frankfurt: European University Viadrina.
  • Edeme, R. K., Ifelunini, I. A. ve Nkalu, N. C. (2016). A Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth of ECOWAS Countries. Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, 24(05).
  • Ee, C. Y. (2016). Export-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from selected Sub-Saharan African countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35, 232-240.
  • Ekanayake, E. (1999). Exports and economic growth in Asian developing countries: Cointegration and error-correction models. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 43-56.
  • Elbeydi, K. R., Hamuda, A. M. ve Gazda, V. (2010). The relationship between export and economic growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 17(1), 69-76. Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Fitzová, H. ve Zídek, L. (2015). Impact of trade on economic growth in the Czech and Slovak Republics. Economics & Sociology, 8(2), 36-50.
  • Foresti, P. (2006). Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth. MPRA Paper No. 2962.
  • Fosu, A. K. (1996). Primary exports and economic growth in developing countries. World Economy, 19(4), 465-475.
  • Furuoka, F. (2009). Exports and Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis. The Icfai University Journal of Applied Economics, VIII(2), 7-16.
  • Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
  • Granger, C. W. ve Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Helpman, E. (1987). Imperfect competition and international trade: evidence from fourteen industrial countries. Journal of the Japanese and international economies, 1(1), 62-81.
  • Herzer, D. (2010). A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis (Discussion Paper No. 200). Berlin: Ibero America Institute for Economic Research.
  • Hussain, M. A. ve Saaed, A. A. J. (2015). Impact of exports and imports on economic growth: Evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 13-21.
  • Hye, Q. M. A., Wizarat, S. ve Lau, W.-Y. (2013). Trade-led growth hypothesis: An empirical analysis of South Asian countries. Economic Modelling, 35, 654-660.
  • Iheanacho, E. (2017). ARDL approach to trade libralisation and economic growth in the developing country: Evidence from Nigeria. African Research Review, 11(2), 138-159.
  • Ijirshar, V. (2015). The empirical analysis of agricultural exports and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 7(3), 113-122.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-led growth, growth-driven export, both or none? Granger causality analysis on OECD countries. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 1(4), 73-94.
  • Kravis, I. B. (1970). Trade as a handmaiden of growth: Similarities between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The Economic Journal, 80(320), 850-872.
  • Mbaku, J. M. (1989). Export growth and economic performance in developing countries: further evidence from Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 14(2), 127-142.
  • Nelson, C. R. ve Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
  • Newey, W. K. ve West, K. D. (1987). Hypothesis testing with efficient method of moments estimation. International Economic Review, 28(3), 777-787.
  • Nguyen H. T. (2016). Impact of export on economic growth in vietnam: empirical research and recommendations. International Business and Management, 13(3), 45-52.
  • Njimanted, G. F. ve Aquilas, N. A. (2015). The impact of timber exports on economic growth in Cameroon: an econometric investigation. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 3(3), 46-60.
  • Park, J. Y. ve Phillips, P. C. (1989). Statistical inference in regressions with integrated processes: Part 2. Econometric Theory, 5(1), 95-131.
  • Phillips, P. C. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Ram, R. (1985). Exports and economic growth: Some additional evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-425.
  • Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 18(4), 613-623.
  • Raza, M. ve Zhang Ying, X. (2017). The causal relationship between export and economic growth of Pakistan. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 5(2), 210-231.
  • Şahbaz, A., Hüseyin, A. ve Yanar, R. (2014). Seçilmiş Asya ülkeleri için ihracata dayalı büyüme modeli: Panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(22), 24-46.
  • Sharma, S. C. ve Dhakal, D. (1994). Causal analyses between exports and economic growth in developing countries. Applied Economics, 26(12), 1145-1157.
  • Shihab, R. A., Soufan, T. ve Abdul-Khaliq, S. (2014). The causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Jordan. Global Journal of Management And Business Research, 14(3), 17-22.
  • Shirazi, N. S. ve Manap, T. A. A. (2004). Exports and economic growth nexus: The case of Pakistan [with comments]. The Pakistan Development Review, 43(4), 563-581.
  • Sims, C. A. Stock, J. H., ve Watson, M. W. (1990). Inference in linear time series models with some unit roots. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 113-144.
  • Stiglitz, J. E. (2006). Making globalization work. New York: WW Norton & Company.
  • Toda, H. Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Topallı, N. ve Alagöz, M. (2015). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik. International Journal of Social and Economic Sciences (IJSES)(2), 122-126.
  • Tyler, W. G. (1981). Growth and export expansion in developing countries: Some empirical evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 9(1), 121-130.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F. ve Gülmez, A. (2013). Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizi. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 8(1), 145-161.
  • Zang, W. ve Baimbridge, M (2012). Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies. Applied Economics, 44, 361-372.
Toplam 51 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Gökhan Akar 0000-0001-8401-4052

Mehmet Özcan 0000-0001-9082-0894

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Ocak 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 9 Şubat 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Akar, G., & Özcan, M. (2020). MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(1), 47-59. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.525003
AMA Akar G, Özcan M. MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi. MJSS. Ocak 2020;9(1):47-59. doi:10.33206/mjss.525003
Chicago Akar, Gökhan, ve Mehmet Özcan. “MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 9, sy. 1 (Ocak 2020): 47-59. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.525003.
EndNote Akar G, Özcan M (01 Ocak 2020) MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 9 1 47–59.
IEEE G. Akar ve M. Özcan, “MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi”, MJSS, c. 9, sy. 1, ss. 47–59, 2020, doi: 10.33206/mjss.525003.
ISNAD Akar, Gökhan - Özcan, Mehmet. “MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 9/1 (Ocak 2020), 47-59. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.525003.
JAMA Akar G, Özcan M. MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi. MJSS. 2020;9:47–59.
MLA Akar, Gökhan ve Mehmet Özcan. “MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, c. 9, sy. 1, 2020, ss. 47-59, doi:10.33206/mjss.525003.
Vancouver Akar G, Özcan M. MIST Ülkelerinde İthalat, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi. MJSS. 2020;9(1):47-59.

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