THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, TRADE OPENNESS AND POPULATION DENSITY ON CO2 EMISSIONS IN TURKEY: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 32, 23 - 35, 30.12.2015

Cuma Bozkurt , İlyas Okumuş

Öz

This study explores the relationship between per capita CO2 emissions, per capita income, per capita energy consumption, trade openness rate and population density for Turkey over the period from 1966 to 2011 in order to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Hatemi-J (2008) cointegration test under two structural breaks is used to determine the relationship. The results reveal that there is a cointegration relationship with two structural breaks (1973, 1985) between CO2 emissions (dependet variable) and independent variables (economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness rate and population density). Moreover, economic growth and other independent variables affect CO2 emissions positively. Therefore, the EKC hypothesis is valid for Turkey

Anahtar Kelimeler

Environmental Kuznets Curve, CO2 emissions, cointegration test with structural breaks

TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME, ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, TİCARİ SERBESTLEŞME VE NÜFUS YOĞUNLUĞUNUN CO2 EMİSYONU ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: YAPISAL KIRILMALI EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Öz

Çalışma, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezinin geçerliliğini test etmek için, 1966-
2011 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Türkiye’de CO2 emisyonu, ekonomik büyüme, enerji
tüketimi, ticari açıklık oranı ve nüfus yoğunluğu değişkenleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi
incelemektedir. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisini belirlemek için iki yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Hatemi-J
(2008) eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Test sonuçları CO2 emisyonu (bağımlı değişken) ile
bağımsız değişkenler (ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi, ticari açıklık oranı ve nüfus
yoğunluğu) arasında iki yapısal kırılmayla (1973, 1985) birlikte eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu
göstermiştir. Ayrıca, diğer bağımsız değişkenlerle birlikte ekonomik büyüme CO2 emisyonunu
pozitif etkilemektedir. Bundan dolayı, ÇKE hipotezi Türkiye için geçerlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi, CO2 emisyonu, yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

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