Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries

Öz

This study aims to reveal the direction and nature of the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Türkiye). In this study, annual data for the period 1970–2023 were analyzed using the Bootstrap Panel Causality test developed by Kónya (2006). According to the results of the analysis, there is a statistically significant and positive causality relationship from economic growth to FDI in Indonesia, Nigeria and Türkiye. In the analysis conducted for Mexico, no statistically significant relationship was found. On the other hand, a statistically significant and positive causal relationship from FDI to economic growth was found only in Nigeria. The results of the study provide noteworthy implications for both policymakers and investors and emphasise that the impact of FDI on growth should be evaluated in line with country dynamics. These findings underline the importance of aligning FDI policies with each country’s structural characteristics and ensuring that foreign capital flows are directed toward productive sectors in order to support sustainable growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• MINT Countries
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Economic Growth
• Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Çift Yönlü Nedenselliğin İncelenmesi: MINT Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, MINT ülkelerinde (Meksika, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye) doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (FDI) ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü ve niteliğini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1970-2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler, Kónya (2006) tarafından geliştirilen Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeden FDI’ya doğru istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Meksika için yapılan analizde ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Öte yandan, FDI’dan ekonomik büyümeye doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir nedensellik ilişkisine yalnızca Nijerya’da rastlanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları hem politika yapıcılar hem de yatırımcılar açısından dikkate değer çıkarımlar sunmakta; özellikle FDI’ın büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin ülke dinamikleri doğrultusunda değerlendirilmesi gerektiğine vurgu yapmaktadır. Bu bulgular, doğrudan yabancı yatırım politikalarının her ülkenin yapısal özellikleriyle uyumlu hâle getirilmesinin ve yabancı sermaye akımlarının sürdürülebilir büyümeyi destekleyecek üretken sektörlere yönlendirilmesinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• MINT Ülkeleri
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

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