Enflasyonun Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Reel Özkaynak Karlılığı Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2026, Sayı: 109, 221 - 254, 02.01.2026

Sinan Şahin

https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1763739

Öz

Bu çalışma, enflasyonun Türk bankacılık sektöründe reel özkaynak kârlılığı (RROE) üzerindeki etkisini incelemekte ve sektörün enflasyonist koşullar altında reel kârlılığını sürdürebilme kapasitesine odaklanmaktadır. 2005–2024 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkileri ortaya koymak amacıyla Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeler (ARDL) modeli, Sınır Testi ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, enflasyon ile RROE arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır; bu durum, artan enflasyonun reel kârlılığı aşındırdığını göstermektedir. Enflasyon ile reel kârlılık arasındaki ters yönlü ilişkinin temel nedeni, sektörün mevduat ve kredi faizlerinde yaşanan nominal artışlara paralel olarak net faiz marjını yeterince artıramamasıdır. Nominal göstergeler yerine reel kârlılığa odaklanan bu çalışma, makroekonomik baskı altında banka performansına dair daha doğru ve politika açısından anlamlı bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Banka Karlılığı , Enflasyon , Özkaynak Karlılığı , Net Faiz Marjı

The Impact of Inflation on The Real Return on Equity in the Turkish Banking Sector: An ARDL Approach

Öz

This study examines the impact of inflation on the real return on equity (RROE) in the Turkish banking sector, emphasizing the sector’s ability to sustain real profitability under inflationary conditions. Using quarterly data from 2005 to 2024, the analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Bounds Testing, and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture both short- and long-run dynamics. The results reveal a statistically significant and negative relationship between inflation and RROE, suggesting that rising inflation erodes real profitability. The inverse relationship between inflation and RROE is primarily driven by the sector’s inability to adjust its net interest margin in line with rising nominal deposit and loan rates. By focusing on real profitability rather than nominal indicators, this study offers a more accurate and policy-relevant perspective on bank performance under macroeconomic stress.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bank profitability , Inflation , Return on Equity , Net Interest Matgin

Kaynakça

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