The Relationship Between Credit Ratings and Financial Performance: An Analysis of the Turkish Banking Sector

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between firm credit ratings and banks’ financial performance within the context of the Turkish banking sector. To this end, annual data covering the period 2005–2024 for eight conventional banks operating in Türkiye are employed. Credit ratings assigned to banks by Fitch are converted into a 100-point scale using the CRIS methodology based on Basu et al. (2012) and are used as the credit rating indicator. Accounting-based return on assets (ROA) and market-based Tobin’s Q are selected as measures of financial performance. The empirical findings indicate that credit ratings have a statistically significant effect on return on assets at the panel level, whereas return on assets does not exert a causal effect on credit ratings. In contrast, no bidirectional causality is detected between Tobin’s Q and banks’ credit ratings at the panel level, although limited causality is observed for certain individual banks. Overall, the results suggest that credit ratings serve as an informative signal for banks’ profitability, while their relationship with marketbased performance indicators remains weak and heterogeneous across banks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Credit Ratings
• ROA
• Tobin’s Q

Kredi Derecelendirme Notları ile Finansal Performans Arasındaki İlişki: Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, firma kredi derecelendirme notları ile bankaların finansal performansı arasındaki ilişkiyi Türk bankacılık sektörü özelinde incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren sekiz konvansiyonel bankaya ait 2005–2024 dönemine ilişkin yıllık veriler kullanılarak analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Fitch tarafından bankalara verilen kredi derecelendirme notları, Basu vd. (2012) temelli “Kredi Ülke Dönüşüm İndeksi-KÜDİ” yöntemiyle 100’lük ölçeğe dönüştürülerek, kredi derecelendirme notu göstergesi olarak kullanılmıştır. Finansal performans ölçütleri olarak muhasebe temelli aktif karlılık ile piyasa temelli Tobin Q değişkenleri tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, kredi derecelendirme notlarının aktif karlılığı panel düzeyinde anlamlı biçimde etkilediğini, ancak aktif karlılığın kredi derecelendirme notlarını etkilemediğini göstermektedir. Öte yandan Tobin Q ile bankaların kredi derecelendirme notları arasındaki ilişkide, panel düzeyinde her iki yönde de bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiş, yalnızca bazı bankalar için nedensellik gözlenmiştir. Genel olarak sonuçlar, kredi derecelendirme notlarının bankaların kârlılığı açısından bilgi sinyali niteliği taşıdığını, buna karşılık piyasa temelli performans göstergeleriyle olan ilişkilerinin zayıf ve banka bazında heterojen bir yapı sergilediğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kredi Derecelendirme Notları
• Aktif Karlılık
• Tobin Q

Kaynakça

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