Assessing Profitability Allocation under Inflation between Food Producers and Retailers

Öz

Türkiye’s sharp rise in food prices between 2019 and 2025 brought a familiar question to the centre of public debate: who along the value chain was actually retaining the gains? Large retailers were widely assumed to have fared better than producers. It draws on a balanced panel of 203 firm-year observations for 24 producers and five retail/wholesale firms listed on Borsa İstanbul, constructed from the original, unadjusted current-period figures in the initial consolidated annual financial statements disclosed on KAP for each fiscal year. Firm and year fixed-effects models trace how retailer–producer differences in gross profit margin, operating expenses, net other operating items and operating margin moved as food inflation changed. The accounts tell a more complicated story than the prevailing narrative suggests. Retailers’ gross and operating margins do not widen relative to those of producers; if anything, the estimates point towards a narrowing. A growing operating-expense burden relative to sales is an important part of this pattern. More favourable movements in net other operating items absorb some of that pressure, but not enough to reverse the margin picture. Neither the baseline models nor the alternative inflation measures and sensitivity checks reveal a systematic shift in profitability towards retailers. Some year-based methods make the relative decline in gross and operating margins statistically clearer, whereas firm-based and two-way approaches do not yield the same strength of evidence. For the companies examined, the findings therefore do not bear out the widely held view that high food inflation transferred profitability towards the retail end of the value chain. By bringing company accounts into a debate often conducted through shelf prices alone, the study follows the producer–retailer comparison through successive stages of the income statement and provides a firmer basis for assessing how profitability was distributed during the inflationary period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Inflation
• Profitability Allocation
• Food Value Chain
• Gross Profit Margin

Enflasyon Altında Gıda Üreticileri ve Perakendecileri Arasında Kârlılık Dağılımının Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Türkiye’de gıda fiyatlarının hızla yükseldiği 2019-2025 dönemi, fiyat artışlarının değer zincirinde kimin kazancına dönüştüğü sorusunu kamuoyu tartışmalarının merkezine taşımıştır. Bu tartışmanın odağında, büyük perakendecilerin üreticilere kıyasla enflasyondan daha avantajlı çıktığı yönündeki yaygın görüş yer almaktadır. Çalışma, bu görüşün muhasebe kârlılığında karşılık bulup bulmadığını incelemektedir. Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören 24 üretici ile 5 perakendeci/toptancı firmadan oluşan 203 gözlemlik dengeli panel, her mali yıl için KAP’ta ilk/orijinal olarak yayımlanan konsolide yıllık finansal tablolardaki düzeltilmemiş cari dönem tutarlarından oluşturulmuştur. Firma ve yıl sabit etkilerini içeren modellerle, gıda enflasyonu değişirken iki grup arasındaki brüt kâr marjı, faaliyet giderleri, net diğer faaliyet kalemleri ve esas faaliyet marjı farklarının nasıl seyrettiği incelenmiştir. Ortaya çıkan muhasebe görünümü, perakendeciler lehine açık bir kârlılık kaymasına işaret etmemektedir. Tahminlerde perakendecilerin üreticilere göre brüt ve esas faaliyet marjları genişlememekte, aksine daralma eğilimi göstermektedir. Bu görünümde, satışlara oranla artan faaliyet giderlerinin önemli bir payı vardır. Net diğer faaliyet kalemleri perakendeciler açısından daha olumlu seyretse de sağladığı dengeleme, marjlardaki hareketi tersine çevirecek ölçüde değildir. Temel modellerin yanı sıra alternatif enflasyon göstergeleri ve duyarlılık kontrolleri de bu genel okumayı korumaktadır. Yıl temelli bazı yöntemler göreli marj kaybını istatistiksel olarak daha belirgin hâle getirse de firma temelli ve iki yönlü yöntemler aynı ölçüde destek sunmamaktadır. İncelenen şirketler bakımından bulgular, yüksek gıda enflasyonunun kârlılığı değer zincirinin perakende tarafına taşıdığı yönündeki yaygın kabulü doğrulamamaktadır. Çalışma, raf fiyatları etrafında şekillenen tartışmaya şirket hesaplarından kanıt getirerek, enflasyon dönemindeki üretici–perakendeci kârlılık dağılımını gelir tablosunun farklı aşamalarında değerlendirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon
• Kârlılık Dağılımı
• Gıda Değer Zinciri
• Brüt Kâr Marjı

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