A Research on the Profitability Expectations of Financial Institutions in Türkiye

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 106, 221 - 244, 15.04.2025

Gökhan Özbilge , Behice Canatan

https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1623467

Öz

This study examines the macroeconomic factors that may influence the profitability expectations of financial institutions operating in Türkiye. Depending on availability, data covering the period from 2012Q3 to 2022Q4 were obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Investing. The findings of the ARDL long-run coefficients indicate that the profitability expectations of financial institutions in Türkiye are positively correlated with composite leading indicator and the exchange rate, and negatively correlated with CDS premiums and stock prices. In the short run, the profitability expectations of financial institutions exhibit a negative relationship with both current and lagged stock prices, a positive relationship with the current exchange rate, a negative relationship with one- and two-period lagged values, and a positive relationship with all values of the VIX Index from two periods prior to the current period. The key takeaway from these results is that macroeconomic factors that can assist financial institutions in formulating appropriate strategies for profitability expectations should be both predictable and not adversely affect participation in financial markets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Institutions , Profitability , Profitability Expectation , Macroeconomic Factors

Seçili Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Türkiye’deki Finansal Kuruluşların Karlılık Beklentileri Üzerine Etkileri

Öz

Bu çalışma, seçili makroekonomik faktörlerin Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren finansal kuruluşların karlılık beklentileri üzerine olan etkilerinin araştırılmasını amaçlamaktadır. Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Sınır Testi yöntemi kullanılan çalışmanın, 2012:3-2022:4 çeyreklik dönemini kapsayan verileri, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, Ekonomik İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü ile Investing’den elde edilmiştir. Araştırmanın uzun dönem bulguları, Türkiye’de yer alan finansal kuruluşların karlılık beklentilerinin, bileşik öncü göstergeler ve döviz kuru ile pozitif; CDS primleri, enflasyon ve hisse senedi fiyatları ile negatif bir ilişki içerisinde olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa dönem bulguları ise finansal kuruluşların karlılık beklentilerinin, bileşik öncü göstergeler, hisse senedi fiyatları, döviz kuru, enflasyon ve VIX Endeksi ile düzeltilebileceğine dikkat çekmektedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen genel sonuçların vurguladığı en önemli nokta, finansal kuruluşların karlılık beklentileri açısından doğru stratejilerin belirlenmesine yardımcı olabilecek makroekonomik faktörlerin hem öngörülebilir olmaları hem de finansal piyasalara katılımı olumsuz etkilememeleri gerektiğidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Kuruluşlar , Karlılık , Karlılık Beklentileri , Makroekonomik Faktörler

Kaynakça

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