DOĞU ASYA VE PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ: PANEL VERİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Unemployment is one of the main problems of all countries. Thus, the interests and efforts of economists to explain the unemployment is becomes important. In this context, one of the hypothesis put forthed about unemployment is the hysteresis hypothesis. According to the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, unemployment rate follows a nonreverting path to its equilibrium in the long-run. The aim of this paper is to investigate the validity of hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment rates in the developed East Asian and Pacific countries during the period 1985–2011. To this end we employed the panel unit root test introduced by Carrion-i-Silvestre and Carrion-i-Silvestre et. al. in 2005. The findings show that, the hysteresis does not characterise the unemployment in most of the countries contrary to the first generation panel unit root tests. Thus, it can be said that, the cyclical fluctuations don’t have permanent effect on the unemployment level in these countries

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Unemployment hysteresis, natural rate hypothesis, panel unit root test, structural breaks, East Asian and Pacific countries

DOĞU ASYA VE PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ: PANEL VERİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

 işsizliği açıklamaya ilişkin ilgi ve çabaları önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede işsizlikle ilgili ortaya atılan hipotezlerden birisi histeri hipotezidir. İşsizlik histerisi hipotezine göre işsizlik oranı, uzun dönemde dengeden uzaklaşan bir seyir izlemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı da, işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin geçerliliğini gelişmiş Doğu Asya ve Pasifik ülkeleri için 1985-2011 döneminde sorgulamaktır. Bu amaçla, Carrion-i-Silvestre ile Carrion-i-Silvestre ve diğerleri tarafından 2005 yılında geliştirilen panel birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, birinci kuşak panel birim kök testlerinin aksine, gelişmiş Doğu Asya ve Pasifik ülkelerinin çoğunluğunda işsizlik histerisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Bu sebeple konjoktürel dalgalanmaların bu

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İşsizlik histerisi,doğal işsizlik oranı hipotezi,panel birim,kök testi,yapısal kırılmalar,Doğu Asya ve Pasifik ülkeleri

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