TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA

Öz

Birinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında Altın Standardı Sisteminin çöküşü, yoğun kambiyo kontrolleri ile farklı döviz kuru rejimlerinin uygulanmasını beraberinde getirmişti. İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında yürürlüğe konulan Bretton Woods sistemi ise sabit, fakat ayarlanabilir bir kur sistemi oluşturmuştu. Ancak sistemin çöküşü ile birlikte sabit kur sistemi terk edilerek çok sayıda farklı kur rejimi uygulanmaya başlandı. Ancak sistemin çöküşü ile birlikte döviz kur rejiminin seçimini belirleyen unsurlar ile gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin farklı yapısal özelliklerinin olası etkilerine ilişkin tartışmalar da artış gösterdi.Sermaye hareketlerinin bütün dünyada gittikçe serbestleştirilmesi, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde optimum döviz kuru rejiminin seçimini konuya ilişkin tartışmaların merkezine oturtmuş; sermaye hareketlerindeki sürekli artışlar, döviz kurlarının oluşumuna ilişkin yeni modellerin ve optimum para alanları teorisi ile ortaya konulmuş yaklaşımların yanı sıra “İki Kutup Hipotezi” ya da “Dalgalanma Korkusu Fenomeni” gibi yeni bazı yaklaşımların önünü açmıştır. Ancak ülkelerin ekonomik yapılarının farklılığının da etkisiyle döviz kuru sistemi tercihi konusunda bir görüş birliği oluşamamıştır. Temel olarak döviz kuru sistemleri sabit, esnek kur sistemleri ve karma kur sistemleri olarak sınıflandırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Optimum Para Alanı değişkenleri ile yeni bazı finansal değişkenlerden yararlanılarak Poirson (2001) tarafından geliştirilen bir döviz kuru esneklik indeksi kullanılmış ve Türkiye içi en ideal döviz kuru sisteminin hangisi olacağını belirlemek amacıyla Panel veri analizi ve simülasyon yöntemlerine başvurulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz Kuru, Döviz Kuru Rejimi Tercihi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. ALIBER Robert Z., “Uncertainty, Currency Areas and The Exchange Rate Systems”, Economica, Vol. 39, No. 156, 1972, ss. 432- 441.
2. APPLEYARD, Dennis R.,Alfred J. Field, International Economics, Richard Irwin Inc., USA, 1992.
3. BALTAGI Badi H., Econometrics Analysis of Panel Data, 2nd Edition, John Wiley and Sons, 2001,
4. BANKS Jerry, John S. Carson, II, Barry L. Nelson, David M. Nicol, DiscreteEvent System Simulation, Prentice- Hall Inc. ,2001.
5. BARAY Alp ù., ù. Esnaf, Yöneylem AraútÕrmasÕ, Literatür YayÕncÕlÕk, Eylül 2000.
6. BAYOUMI Tamim, Barry Eichengreen, Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 45, No. 2, 1998, ss. 191- 209.
7. BENASSY-Quéré, Benoit Coeuré, The Survival of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes, In: Proceedings of the International Conference—Towards Regional Currency Areas, 2002.
8. BERGSTEN C. Fred., John Williamson, Exchange Rates and Trade Policy, In Trade Policy in the 1980s, edited by W. R. Cline, Institute for International Economics, 1983.

9. BERNANKE Ben, S., “Monetary Policy in A World of Mobile Capital”, Cato Journal ,Vol. 25, No. 1, 2005, ss. 1- 12.
10. BRANSON William H, Lawrence Krause, John Kareken, Walter Salant, “Monetary Policy and The New View of International Capital Movements”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1970, No. 2, 1970, ss. 235- 270.
11. BRODA Christian, “Coping with Terms of Trade Shocks: Pegs versus Floats”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 2, 2001, ss. 376- 380.
12. CALLIER Philippe, “Speculation and The Forward Foreign Exchange Rate: A Note”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. XXXV, No.1, March 1980, ss. 173- 176.
13. CALVO Guillermo A., Carmen M. Reinhart, “Fear of Floating”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXVII, No. 2, 2002, ss. 379- 408.
14. CALVO Guillermo A., Frederic S. Mishkin, “The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 4, 2003, ss. 99- 118.
15. CAVES Douglas W. and Edgar L. Feige, “Efficient Foreign Exchange Markets and the Monetary Approach to Exchange- Rate Determination”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1980, ss. 120- 134.
16. CAVES Richard E., “Flexible Exchange Rates”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 2, 1963, ss. 120- 129.
17. COOK Dennis R., Sanford Weisberg, “Diagnostics for Heteroscedasticity in Regression”, Biometrika, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1983, ss. 1- 10.
18. COOPER Richard N., Exchange Rate Choices, Conference Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Issue June, 1999.
19. CORDEN W.M., Monetary Integration, Essays in International Finance, 93, International Finance Section, Princeton University, USA, 1972.
20. DAVIDSON Russell, James G. MacKinnon, Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 1993.
21. DORNBUSCH Rudi, “Fewer Monies, Better Monies”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 2, 2001, ss. 238- 242.
22. DORNBUSCH Rudiger and Stanley Fischer, “Exchange Rates and the Current Account”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 70, No.5, 1980, ss. 960- 971.
23. DORNBUSCH Rudiger, “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 6, 1976, ss. 1161- 1176.
24. DORNBUSCH Rudiger, “Flexible Exchange Rates and Excess Capital Mobility”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1986, No. 1, 1986, ss. 209- 226.
25. DREYER J. S., “Determinants of Exchange- Rate Regimes For Currencies of Developing Countries: Some Preliminary Results”, World Development, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1978, ss. 437- 445.
26. EDWARDS Sebastian , Miguel A. Savastano, “Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know?, What Do We Need To Know?”, NBER Working Papers, No. 7228, July 1999, ss. 1- 75.
27. EDWARDS Sebastian, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, “Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers”, European Economic Review, Vol. 49, 2005, ss.2079- 2105.
28. EDWARDS Sebastian, “How Effective are Capital Controls?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 4, 1999,ss. 65- 84.
29. EDWARDS Sebastian, The Determinants of the Choice Between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes, NBER Working Papers, No. 5756, 1996.
30. EICHENGREEN Barry, “Global Imbalances and The Lessons of Bretton Woods”, NBER Working Papers, No. 10497, May, 2004.
31. EICHENGREEN Barry, Ricardo Hausmann, “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility”, NBER Working Papers, No. 7418, 1999
32. EICHENGREEN Barry, Toward A New Financial Architecture: A Practical Post- Asia Agenda, Washington, DC, Institute For International Economics, 1999.
33. FIELDING David, Paul Mizen, “Investment, Output and Interest Rate Policy When Capital is Mobile”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 107, No. 441, 1997, ss. 431- 440.
34. FISCHER Stanley, “Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Exchange Rate Regimes: Is The Bipolar View Correct?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2001, ss. 3- 24.
35. FRANKEL Jeffrey A., “Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies”, NBER Working Papers, No. 10032, 2003.
36. FRANKEL Jeffrey A., On the Mark: “A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No.4, 1979, ss. 610- 622.
37. FRANKEL Jeffrey A., “No Single Currency Regime is Right For All Countries Or At All Times”, NBER Working Papers No. 7338.
38. FRENKEL Jacob A., “A Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 78, No. 2,1976, ss. 200- 224.
39. FRENKEL Jacob A., “Elasticities and The Interest Parity Theory”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, No. 3, 1973, ss. 741- 747.
40. FRENKEL Jacob A., “Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices and The Role of “News”: Lessons From The 1970s”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.89, No.4, 1981, ss. 665- 705.
41. FRENKEL Jacob A., Michael Mussa, “Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Open Economy”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No.2, (May 1981), ss. 253- 258.
42. FRENKEL Jacob A:, Thorvaldur Gylfason, John F. Helliwell, “A Synthesis of Monetary and Keynesian Approaches to Short-run Balance- of- Payments Theory”, The Economic Journal, Vol.90, No.359, 1980, ss. 582- 592.
43. GHOSH Atish R., Anne- Marie Gulde, Holger C. Wolf, Exchange Rate Regimes “Choices and Consequences”, The MIT Press 2002.
44. GIDDY Ian H., “An Integrated Theory of Exchange Rate Equilibrium”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 11, No. 5, 1976, ss. 883- 892.
45. GOLDSTEIN Henry N., “The Implications of Triangular Arbitrage for Forward Exchange Policy”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 19, No.3, 1964, ss. 544- 551.
46. GÜÇLÜ Mehmet, “Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Kur Rejimi Tercihi”, (YayÕnlanmamÕú Doktora Tezi), Ege Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, øzmir, 2008
47. GÜRAN Nevzat, Döviz Kuru Sistemleri ve Ekonomik Denge, Kavram MatbaasÕ, øzmir, 1987.
48. HAGEN Jürgen Von, Jizhong Zhou, “The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime, An Empirical Analysis for Transition Economies”, Economics of Transition, Vol. 13, No. 4, 2005, ss. 679- 703.
49. HARRIGAN Jane, “Time to Exchange the Exchange Rate Regime Are Hard Pegs the Best Option For Low-Income Countries”, Development Policy Review, Vol. 24, No. 2,2006, ss. 205- 223.
50. HAUSMANN R., U. Panizza, E. Stein, Why Do Countries Float The Way They Float, Mimeograph, Inter American Development Bank, 1999.
51. HELLER Robert H., “Determinants of Exchange Rate Practises”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1978, ss. 308- 321.
52. HSIAO Cheng, Analysis of Panel Data, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press, 2003.
53. HOFFMANN Dennis L., Don E. Schlagenhauf, “The Impact of News and Alternative Theories of Exchange Rate Determination”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.17, No.3, 1985, ss. 328- 346.
54. HONKAPOHJA S., Pikkarainen, P., Country Characteristics and The Choice of The Exchange Rate Regime: are mini-skirts followed by maxis? In: Akerholm, J., Giovannini, A. (Eds.), Exchange Rate Policies in the the Nordic Countries, CEPR, 1994, ss. 31- 53.
55. HOLDEN Paul, Merle Holden, Esther C. Suss, “The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 3, 1979 ss. 327- 333.
56. HORVATH Julius, “Optimum Currency Area Theory: A Selective Review”, BOFIT Discussion Papers, No. 15, 2003.
57. HUSAIN Aasim, A. Mody, Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Rate Regime Durability and Performance in Developing Versus Advanced Economies”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 52, No. 25, 2005, ss. 35- 64.
58. HUSTED Steven, Michael Melvin, International Economics, Pearson AddisonWesley, Sixth Edition. USA, 2004.
59. INGRAM James, International Economics, John Wiley & Sons, USA, 1986.
60. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, IFS, BOP, DOT, Online Databases, 1989- 2008 http://www.imfstatistics.org ISARD Peter, Exchange Rate Economics, Cambridge University Press, 1995.
61. JAMES Harold, Michael D. Bordo, Haberler Versus Nurkse: “The Case for Floating Exchange Rates as an Alternative to Bretton Woods”, ed. Jörg Baumberger, University of St. Gallen, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 2001- 08, 2001.
62. JOHNSON Harry G., The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, Further Essays in Monetary Economics, Harvard University Press, 1969.
63. JOHNSON Harry G., “The Case For Flexible Exchange Rates”, Hobart Papers No. 46, 1969. JOHNSON Harry G., “The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Theory”, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 2, March 1972, ss. 1555- 1572.
64. JOHNSON Harry G., Towards A General Theory of the Balance of Payments, Chapter VI in Harry G. Johnson, International Trade and Economic Growth: Studies in Pure Theory, 5. Impression, George Allen and Unwin Ltd., 1970, ss. 153-68
65. JOHNSON Melvin, Krishna M. Kasibhatla and John Malindretos, Keynesian and Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments, Keynesian & Monetary Approaches to Managing Disequilibrium in Balance of Payments Accounts, Greenwood Publishing Group, 2000.
66. JUHN, G., P. Mauro, Long-run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis, IMF Working Paper, No. 02/104, 2002.
67. KENEN Peter B., The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View, in Mundell R. and Swoboda A., (eds), Monetary Problems of The International Economy, University of Chicago Pres, 1969.
68. KENNY Paul, “The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas”, Student Economic Review, Vol. 17, 2003, ss. 137- 149.
69. KINDLEBERGER Charles P., International Economics, Irwin Publishing, 1968. KOURI Pentti J.K., Jorge Braga De Macedo, Walter S. Salant, Marina v. N. Whitman, “Exchange Rates and International Adjustment Process”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1978, No. 1, ss. 111- 157.
70. KRUEGER Anne O., “Balance of Payments Theory”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1969, ss. 1- 26.
71. KRUGMAN Paul R., Maurice Obstfeld, International Economics, Fifth Edition., Addison- Wesley, USA, 2000.
72. KRUGMAN Paul, “A Model of Balance-of - Payments Crisis”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, No. 3, 1979, ss. 311- 325.
73. LIN Kuan Pin, Computational Econometrics: Gauss Programming for Econometricians and Financial Analysts, Etext Textbook Publisher, 2001.
74. LUIZA Maria, Falcao Silva, Modern Exchange Regimes, Stabilisation Programmes and Co- Ordination of Macroeconomic Policies, Ashgate Publishing Ltd., England, 1999.
75. MACHLUP Fritz, “Three Concepts of the Balance of Payments and the So called Dolar Shortage”, The Economic Journal, Vol. LX, 1950, ss. 46- 68
76. MC KINNON Ronald I, “The Exchange Rate and Macro Economic Policy: Changing Postwar Perceptions”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1981, ss. 531- 557.
77. MCKINNON Ronald I., Huw Pill, “Exchange-Rate Regimes For Emerging Markets:Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 15, No. 3, 1999, ss. 19- 38.
78. MCKINNON Ronald I., “Optimum Currency Areas”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No.4, 1963, ss. 717- 726.
79. MCKINNON Ronald I, Gunther Schnabl, “The East Asian Dolar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin”, Review of Development Economics, Vol. 8, No. 3, 2004, ss. 331- 360.
80. MEON P.G., J.-M. Rizzo, The Viability of Fixed Exchange Rate Commitments: Does Politics Matter? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation, Open Economies Review, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2002, ss. 111- 132.
81. MUNDELL Robert A., “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas”, American Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 4, 1961, ss. 657- 665.
82. MUNDELL Robert A., “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates”, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol.29, No.4, (Nov. 1963), ss. 475- 485.
83. MUNDELL Robert A., International Economics, MacMillan Press, New York 1968.
84. MUNDELL Robert A., The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability, IMF Staff Papers, No. IX, (March 1962).
85. MUNDELL Robert A., “The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 74, No.2, 1960, ss. 227- 257.
86. MUNDELL Robert A., Currency Areas, Volatility and Intervention, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2000, ss. 281- 299.
87. MUSSA Michael, “The Exchange Rate, The Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under A Regime of Controlled Floating”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 78, No. 2, 1976, ss. 229- 248.
88. OBSTFELD Maurice, “Rational and Self- Fulfilling Balance-of- Payments Crises”, American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 1, 1986, ss. 72- 81.
89. OBSTFELD Maurice, Richard N. Cooper, Paul R. Krugman, “Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1985, No. 2, 1985, ss. 369- 464.
90. OBSTFELD Maurice; Kenneth Rogoff, “The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, 1995, ss. 73- 96
91. PHAUP Dwight E., “A Reinterpatation of the Modern Theory of Forward Exchange Rates”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol 13, No 4, 1981, ss. 477- 484.
92. PILBEAM Keith, “Economic Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Movements”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 15, No. 1, 2001, ss. 55- 64.
93. POIRSON Héléné, “How Do Countries Choose Their Exchange Rate Regime”, IMF Working Paper, No. 01/46, 2001.
94. POOLE William, “Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Model”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, No.2, 1970, ss. 197- 216.
95. RAVINDRAN A., Don T. Philips, James J. Solberg, Operations Research, Principles and Practise, John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1987.
96. REINHART Carmen M., “The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2, 2000, ss. 65- 70 .
97. RICCI L.A., Exchange-Rate Regimes and Location, IMF Working Paper, 97/69, 1997.
98. RIZZO Jean- Marc, The economic determinants of the choice of an exchange rate regime: a probit analysis, Economics Letters, Vol. 59, No. 3, 1998, ss. 283- 287.
99. ROSENBERG Michael R., Currency Forecasting, A Guide To Fundamental and Technical Models Of Exchange Rate Determination, McGraw- Hill, 1996.
100. SHONE Ronald, “The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: Stock- Flow Equilibria”, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Vol. 32, No.2, 1980, ss. 200- 209.
101. SOHMEN Egon, “Fiscal and Monetary Policies Under Alternative Exchange Rate Systems”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 81, No.3, 1967, ss. 515- 523.
102. SUITS Daniel B., “Dummy Variables: Mechanics V. Interpretation”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 1, ss. 177- 80.
103. SVENSSON Lars E. O., Assaf Razin, “The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger- Laursen- Metzler Effect”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 1, 1983, ss. 97- 125.
104. TAHA Hamdy A., Operations Research, An Introduction, Sixth Edition, Prentice Hall International Inc., 1997.
105. TAVLAS George S.,” Reviewed work(s): The Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime by John Williamson”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 108, No. 451 (1998), 1895-1898
106. TAVLAS George S., “The Economics of Exchange-Rate Regimes: A Review Essay”, The World Economy, Vol. 26, No. 8, 2003, ss .1215- 1246.
107. TAYLOR Mark P., “Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulance”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 99, No. 396, 1989, ss. 376- 391.
108. TAYLOR Mark P., “The Economics of Exchange Rates”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1995, ss. 13- 47.
109. TOBIN James, “Financial Globalization”, World Development, Vol. 28, No. 6, June 2000, ss. 1101- 1104.
110. WINSTON Wayne L., Operations Research, PWS- Kent Publishing Company, 1991.
111. WOOLDRIDGE J.M., Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2002
112. WORLDBANK, World Development Indicators Online Database, 1989- 2008. http://www.worldbank.org
113. YAöCI Fahrettin, Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes For Developing Countries, The World Bank, Africa Region Working Paper Series, No. 16, 2001.