KÜRESEL EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN FİNANSAL PİYASALAR ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ (YENİ SANAYİLEŞMİŞ ÜLKELER ÖRNEĞİ)

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 46 Sayı: 2, 355 - 379, 24.10.2024

Gülden Kadooğlu Aydın , Turgay Münyas

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1412703

Öz

Ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve politik riskin bir çok makroekonomik değişken üzerinde etkileri söz konusudur. Bu değişkenlerin en önemlilerinden biri doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardır. Yabancı yatırımcılar, politika belirsizliğinin yüksek olduğu ekonomilere yatırım yapmaktan kaçınarak, yatırımlarını siyasi istikrarın olduğu ve ekonomide belirsizliğin olmadığı ekonomilere yönlendirmek istemektedirler. Bu çalışma, ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkisini derinlemesine incelemiş ve kompleks ilişkileri aydınlatmıştır. Bulgular, ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin borsa endeksi, tahvil faiz oranları, politika faiz oranları ve döviz kurları arasında uzun vadede kointegre ilişkilerinin mevcudiyetine işaret etmektedir. Ekonomi politikası belirsizliğindeki artışlar, borsa endeksini ve faiz oranlarını negatif bir şekilde etkileyerek düşüşe sebep olmaktadır, aksine döviz kurlarını ise artıran bir etkisi bulunmaktadır. Ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin tüm bu finansal göstergeler arasından en çok politika faiz oranları üzerinde olumsuz yönde etkili olduğu da araştırmanın bir diğer bulgusu olarak yer almaktadır. Ayrıca, çalışmada ekonomi politikası belirsizliği ile diğer finansal göstergeler arasındaki nedensel ilişkilere de ilgi gösterilmiştir. Bu bağlamda, ekonomi politikası belirsizliği ve borsa endeksi ile ülkelerin döviz kurları arasında karşılıklı nedensel ilişkilerin gözlendiği saptanmıştır; ekonomi politikası belirsizliği ile politika faizi ve tahvil faizi arasında tek yönlü bir nedensel ilişki olduğu kaydedilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, finansal modellemelerin daha hassas bir şekilde yapılandırılmasına katkı sağlamakta ve ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkilerinin daha ayrıntılı bir şekilde anlaşılmasına yardımcı olmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği, Politik Risk, Yatırımcı Davranışları.

Kaynakça

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