Assessment of Electricity Generation Using Deep Learning on Solar Power Plants

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 289 - 311, 31.08.2024

Yunus Emre Kıymaz , Hidayet Oguz

https://doi.org/10.47112/neufmbd.2024.49

Öz

Solar panel technology is expensive to install such systems, which have a lifespan of about 25 years on average. It is often important to make production estimates for the future to make optimal use of these systems. This study assesses three two-year daily frequency data sets and a one-year hourly frequency data set from the solar power plants (univariate time series) based in Konya, which have a 1MW capacity per annum. Electricity production analysis is conducted based on the data from the solar power plants using deep learning. The preferred method is determined to be Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and it has been compared with another statistical method used in time series analysis, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The results obtained with each dataset have been subjected to five different performance measurement mechanisms (MSE, RMSE, NMSE, MAE, MAPE and R2). It has been observed that the LSTM model generally provides results closer to real data compared to the SARIMA model. According to the RMSE score, the average value of four power plants is 973 in LSTM and 1361 in SARIMA, in this case LSTM gave a successful result compared to SARIMA. Before establishing a solar power plant, carrying out a feasibility study has a profitability-enhancing role.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Deep Learning, Long Short-Term Memory, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Solar Power Plant, Univariate Time Series

Güneş Enerjisi Santrallerinde Derin Öğrenme Kullanılarak Elektrik Üretiminin Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Güneş paneli teknolojisi ortalama 25 yıl ömrü olan bu tür sistemlerin kurulumu pahalıdır. Bu sistemlerden en iyi şekilde yararlanmak için geleceğe yönelik üretim tahminleri yapmak çoğu zaman önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Konya merkezli yıllık 1MW kapasiteye sahip güneş enerjisi santrallerine (tek değişkenli zaman serisi) ait iki yıllık üç günlük frekans veri seti ve bir yıllık saatlik frekans veri seti değerlendirilmektedir. Elektrik üretim analizi, derin öğrenme kullanılarak güneş enerjisi santrallerinden elde edilen verilere dayanılarak yapılmaktadır. Tercih edilen yöntem uzun kısa süreli hafıza (LSTM) olup, zaman serisi analizinde kullanılan diğer bir istatistiksel yöntem olan mevsimsel otoregresif bütünleşik hareketli ortalama (SARIMA) ile kıyaslanmıştır. Her bir veri seti ile elde edilmiş sonuçlar beş farklı performans ölçüm mekanizmasına (MSE, RMSE, NMSE, MAE, MAPE ve R2) tabi tutulmuş ve LSTM modelinin genellikle SARIMA modeline göre daha gerçek verilere yakın sonuçlar verdiği tespit edilmiştir. RMSE skoruna göre dört santralin ortalama değeri LSTM'de 973, SARIMA'da 1361 olup, bu durumda LSTM, SARIMA'ya göre başarılı bir sonuç vermiştir. Güneş enerjisi santrali kurmadan önce fizibilite çalışmasının yapılması karlılığı artırıcı bir role sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Derin Öğrenme, Güneş Enerjisi Santrali, Mevsimsel Otoregresif Bütünleşik Hareketli Ortalama, Uzun Kısa Süreli Hafıza, Tek Değişkenli Zaman Serileri

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