Ekim 1987’de Beş Ülkede Borsa Çöküşü ve Makroiktisadî Sonuçlar (İngiltere, Almanya, Fransa, Japonya, Hollanda)

Öz

Ekim 1987’de ABD’de Hisse Senedi Piyasasında, belli başlı piyasa endekslerine [Dow Jones (DJ), S&P, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) gibi] günlük, aylık veya çeyreklik veriler îtibarıyle bakıldığında, dramatik bir fiyat çöküşü tecrübe edilmiştir. Hisse senedi piyasası (borsa) çöküşü piyasa endeksinde asgarî %10 kadarlık bir düşüş durumunu tanımlar. Çalışmada Ekim 1987’de gelişmiş ülkelerde de borsa çöküşleri yaşanıp yaşanmadığı sorusuna 5 ülke (İngiltere, Almanya, Fransa, Japonya, Hollanda) özelinde amprik sûrette cevap aranmaktadır. FTS 100 (İngiltere), DAX (Almanya), CAC 40 (Fransa), Nikkei 225 (Japonya), AEX (Hollanda) endekslerinin 19/20 Ekim 1987, Ekim 1987, 1987/4. çeyreği zarfında sergiledikleri değişim tetkik edilmiştir. Böylece bu endekslere bakıldığında bir piyasa çöküşü vukû bulup bulmadığı teşhis edilmiştir. İlâveten, aynı dönemde bu ülkelerde bir makroekonomik yavaşlama veya durgunluk meydana gelip gelmediği araştırılmış, bu maksatla reel ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik oranı, sınaî üretim göstergelerinin sergilediği değişim tesbit edilmiştir. Üç sonuca ulaşılabilmiştir: (i) 19/20 Ekim 1987 îtibarıyle günlük bazda yalnızca İngiltere, Japonya, Hollanda’da, (ii) hem 1987 Ekimi ve hem de 1987/4. çeyrek îtibarıyle 5 ülkenin hepsinde borsa çöküşü meydana gelmiştir. (iii) 1987’nin 4. çeyreği îtibarıyle; Almanya ve Hollanda’da makroekonomik yavaşlama, Fransa’da ise sınaî üretim endeksi ölçü alındığında bir durgunluk tecrübe edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çöküş
• hisse senedi piyasası
• borsa
• iktisadî durgunluk
• iktisadî yavaşlama
• gelişmiş ekonomiler.

The Stock Market Crash in Five Countries, October 1987, and Macroeconomic Consequences (United Kingdom, Germany, French, Japan, and Netherlands)

Abstract

A dramatic “price crash” was experienced in the USA Stock Market, in October 1987 when it was looked at main indexes (such as DJ, S&P, Nasdaq, NYSE) in the stock market with respect daily, monthly, quarterly datas. Stock market collapse describes a situation where a decline over 10% happened in the price index. In the study, it is searched a response empirically for question of “whether or not stock market crashes were lived not only in the USA but also in other developed countries, especially in the five countries (UK, Germany, French, Japan, Netherlands)”, in October 1987. It is surveyed the change in FTS 100 (UK), DAX (Germany), CAC 40 (French), Nikkei 225 (Japan), AEX (Netherlands), that appeared on 19/20 October, in October month, in 4th quarter of 1987. Thus, it was diagnosed “whether or not a market crash occurred” if these indexes are considered. Moreover, it was researched if or not a macroeconomic slowdown or recession in these countries at the same period. In this purpose, the changes that the indicators of real economic growth, unemployment rate, total industrial production exhibited were determined. Three conclusions could be reached: (i) in regard to 19/20 October 1987, a stock market crash only happened in UK, Netherlands, and Japan, (ii) in regard to both October 1987 and 4th quarter of 1987, stock market crash happen in everyone. (iii) A macroeconomic slowdown was lived in Germany and Netherlands, and a recession was experienced in French if the industrial production index is took benchmark.

Keywords

• Crash
• stock markets
• recession
• slowdown
• developed economies.

Kaynakça

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