Analysis and Applicability of Mersin Region Wind Speed Data with Artificial Neural Networks

Öz

In this study, wind speed data were analyzed in order to provide energy to the heating and electrical systems of a house with renewable energy sources in Mersin-Mut region. Three-year wind speed data is taken from the Turkey General Directorate of Meteorology in the region. Annual estimation was made with artificial neural networks using 28-day wind speed data for the studied area. Some of the wind data were used for training of the neural network, and some were used for testing. In the artificial neural network model, the most successful model was obtained by changing the number of neurons in the hidden layer. In the analysis made using eight neurons in the hidden layer, the lowest MAE and RMSE error values ​​were calculated. While the number of neurons was eight, MAE and RMSE values ​​were obtained as 0.4056 and 0.5403, respectively. In addition, analysis of wind data with WAsP software has been carried out for this region. Thus, the average instantaneous wind speed was determined according to the analysis studies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Renewable Energy Sources,wind energy,YSA,RMSE,MAE

Mersin Bölgesi Rüzgar Hız Verilerinin Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Analizi ve Uygulanabilirliği

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Mersin-Mut bölgesinde yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları ile bir evin ısıtma ve elektrik sistemlerine enerji sağlanabilmesi için rüzgar hızı verileri analiz edilmiştir. Bölgedeki üç yıllık rüzgar hızı verileri Türkiye Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’nden alınmıştır. İncelenen bölge için 28 günlük rüzgar hızı verileri kullanılarak yapay sinir ağları ile yıllık tahmin gerçekleştirilmiştir. Rüzgar verilerinin bir kısmı yapay sinir ağının eğitimi için, bir kısmıda test işlemi için kullanılmıştır. Yapay sinir ağı modelinde gizli katmandaki nöron sayıları değiştirilerek en başarılı model elde edilmiştir. Gizli katmanda sekiz nöron kullanılarak yapılan analizde, en düşük MAE ve RMSE hata değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Nöron sayısı sekiz iken, MAE ve RMSE değerleri sırasıyla 0.4056 ve 0.5403 olarak elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, bu bölge için rüzgar verilerinin WAsP yazılımı ile analiz çalışmaları da gerçekleştirilmiştir. Böylece, analiz çalışmalarına göre ortalama anlık rüzgar hızı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynakları,Rüzgar Enerjisi,YSA,RMSE,MAE

Kaynakça

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