Causality relationships between institutional indicators and human development in Türkiye: A Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Approach

Öz

This study examines the causal relationships between institutional quality and human development in Turkey. The Human Development Index (HDI) provides a multidimensional measure of welfare by combining income, education, and life expectancy indicators. Although the influence of institutions on human development has been widely explored, studies incorporating structural breaks remain scarce. This limitation is crucial for Turkey, where institutional indicators have experienced periodic fluctuations, making advanced econometric approaches necessary. Using annual data from 1996–2024, the study analyzes the relationship between HDI and four subcomponents of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)—Control of Corruption (CC), Government Effectiveness (GE), Regulatory Quality (RQ), and Rule of Law (RL)—through the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality framework. Stationarity was tested using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Fourier KPSS tests, while the optimal lag length was selected according to information criteria. The results reveal bidirectional causality between HDI and regulatory quality, and between regulatory quality and rule of law, while unidirectional causality flows from government effectiveness and rule of law to HDI. These findings emphasize that effective governance and institutional reforms play a crucial role in enhancing human development. The study contributes methodologically to the literature and provides policy guidance for promoting sustainable human progress in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Human development index
• Institutional quality
• Fourier Toda–Yamamoto

Türkiye’de kurumsal göstergeler ile insani gelişmişlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri: Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de kurumsal kalite ile insani gelişmişlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini incelemektedir. İnsani Gelişmişlik Endeksi (İGE), gelir, eğitim ve yaşam süresi göstergelerini birleştirerek refahın çok boyutlu bir ölçüsünü sunmaktadır. Kurumların insani gelişme üzerindeki etkisi literatürde geniş biçimde incelenmiş olsa da, yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan çalışmalar sınırlıdır. Bu eksiklik, kurumsal göstergelerde dönemsel dalgalanmalar yaşayan Türkiye açısından daha gelişmiş ekonometrik yaklaşımların kullanılmasını gerekli kılmaktadır. 1996–2024 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak, İGE ile Dünya Yönetişim Göstergeleri’nin (WGI) dört alt bileşeni—Yolsuzluk Kontrolü (CC), Hükûmet Etkinliği (GE), Düzenleyici Kalite (RQ) ve Hukukun Üstünlüğü (RL)—arasındaki ilişkiler Fourier Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik çerçevesiyle analiz edilmiştir. Durağanlık, Genişletilmiş Dickey–Fuller ve Fourier KPSS testleriyle incelenmiş; optimal gecikme uzunluğu bilgi kriterlerine göre belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, İGE ile düzenleyici kalite ve düzenleyici kalite ile hukukun üstünlüğü arasında çift yönlü; hükûmet etkinliği ve hukukun üstünlüğünden İGE’ye doğru ise tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, etkin yönetişim ve kurumsal reformların insani gelişmişliği artırmada kritik rol oynadığını vurgulamaktadır. Çalışma, literatüre yöntemsel katkı sağlamakta ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma politikalarına yön göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İnsani gelişmişlik endeksi
• Kurumsal kalite
• Fourier Toda–Yamamoto

Kaynakça

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