ÜLKELERİN GELİŞMİŞLİK SEVİYESİ OPTİMAL KAMU BÜYÜKLÜĞÜNÜ NASIL ETKİLEMEKTEDİR: PANEL DATA ANALİZİ İLE UYGULAMALI BİR ÇALIŞMA

Yıl 2021, , 391 - 405, 30.03.2021

Rıza Bayrak

https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.870485

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmanın ana amacı kamu harcamalarının optimal bir değerinin olup olmadığı; varsa bunun ülkelerin gelişmişlik seviyesine göre değişip değişmediğini test etmektir. Bu araştırma soruları, Armey Eğrisi yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bağımlı değişkeni ekonomik büyüme oranı; bağımsız değişkenleri ise kamu harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki payı, sabit sermaye oluşumu ve işsizliktir. 2008 Küresel Finansal Krizin etkilerini de yansıtmak amacıyla da kukla değişken kullanılmıştır. Veriler Dünya Bankası veri tabanından temin edilmiştir. Çalışmada 21 ülkeye ait 1990-2019 dönemi verileri, AMG Panel Veri Analizi yardımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre; İspanya, Meksika ve Kolombiya hariç diğer 18 ülkede optimal kamu harcaması değerinin varlığı doğrulanmıştır. Bununla birlikte gelişmiş ülkelerde optimal kamu büyüklüğü ortalamasının GDP’nin %30.67’si, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise bu değerin %25.43 olduğu gözlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar Wagner (1882)’in savı ve Keynesyen görüş ile tutarlılık içinde olup; ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyi arttıkça, iktisadi yapı içinde kamu büyüklüğünün artığını söylemek mümkündür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Büyüme, Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu, Kamu Harcamaları, Armey Eğrisi, AMG Panel Veri Analizi

HOW DOES THE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF COUNTRIES AFFECT OPTIMAL SIZE OF GOVERNMENT: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY WITH PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz

The aim of this study is to clarify whether there is optimal government size; if there is, to determine whether it changes according to the development level of the countries. Estimations for these research questions were analyzed with the help of the Armey Curve. The economic growth rate was used as a dependent variable; while the annual public expenditure ratio in national income, gross fixed capital formation, unemployment rate were used as independent variables and additionally the effects of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis as a dummy variable. The data were obtained from the World Bank database. 21 countries' data for the period 1990-2019 were analyzed with AMG Panel Data. According to the findings obtained from the study; the existence of optimal public expenditure value has been confirmed in 18 countries except for Spain, Mexico, and Colombia. It has been observed that the optimal public size average is 30.67% in developed countries and 25.43% in developing countries. These results are consistent with Wagner's (1882) argument and Keynesian view. It is possible to say that as the development level of the countries increases, accordingly the public size within the economic structure increases.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Growth, Gross Fixed Capital Stock, Public Spendimg, Armey Curve, AMG Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

• Adhikary, B.K. (2011). FDI, Trade Openness, Capital Formation, and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Linkage Analysis, International Journal of Business and Management, 6(1), 16-28
• Alimi, R. S. (2014). Does Optimal Government Size Exists for Developing Economies? The Case of Nigeria, MPRA Paper No. 56073. Retrieved: 14th July 2020, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56073/,
• Altunc, Ö. ve Aydın, C. (2013). The Relationship Between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Groth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 92 (2013), 66-75.
• Armey, D. (1995). The Freedom Revolution. Washington: Regnery Publishing.
• Barro, R.J. (1989). A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government, NBER Working Paper No: 2855.
• Barro, R.J. (1991). Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-444.
• Bayrak, R. (2020). Optimal Public Size in Sustainable Development, Sustainable Development: Interdisciplinary Approach (Eds: Rıza Bayrak and Mustafa Polat), Ankara: NOBEL Publication.
• Brumm, H.J. (1997). Military Spending, Government Disarray, and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis, Journal of Macroeconomics, 19(4), 827-838.
• Chao, J.C.P. ve H. Grubel (1998). “Optimal Levels of Spending and Taxation in Canada,” chapter in “How to Use the Fiscal Surplus: What is the Optimum Size of Government”, The Fraser Institute, Vancouver, Retrieved: 14 July 2020, https://www.fraserinstitute.org/ sites/default /files/HowtoUseFiscalSurplusOptimal Levels.pdf,
• Chobanov, D. ve A. Mladenova, (2009). What is the Optimum Size of Government, Institute for Market Economics, 1-47. Retrieved: 14 June 2020, https://ime.bg/uploads/69a09c OptimalSize of Government.pdf,
• De Long, B. L. Summers (1991). Equipment Investment and Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), 445-502.
• Eberhardt, M., ve S. Bond (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. MPRA, No. 17692, Retrieved: 20 August 2020, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17692/.
• Ersoy, A. (2008). Economic Theories and History of Thought, Ankara: Nobel Publications.
• Facchini, F. ve Melki, M. (2011). Optimal Government Size and Economic Growth in France (1871-2008): An Explanation by The State Market Failures. CES Working Papers, ISSN: 1955-611X, Paris, 1-38.
• Friedman, M. (1997). If the Only US were as Free as Hong Kong. Wall Street Journal, Jully 8.
• Henrekson, M. (1993). Wagner’s Law-A Spurious Relationship, Public Finance, 48, 406-415.
• Heitger, B. (2001). The Scope of Government and its Impact on Economic Growth in OECD Countries, Kiel Working Paper No.1034, Kiel: Institute of World Economics.
• Karras, G. (1996). The Optimal Government Size: further International Evidence on the Productivity of Government Services, Economic Inquiry, 34 (2), 193-203.
• Karras, G. (1997). On the Optimal Government Size in Europe: Theory and Empirical Evidence, The Manchester School of Economic&Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, 65(3), 280-94.
• Keho, Y. (2017). The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth: The Case of Cote d’Ivoire, Cogent, Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1-14
• Kormendi, R.C. ve P.G. Meguire (1985). Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16, 141-163.
• Kuştepeli, Y. (2005). The Relationship Between Government Size and Economic Growth: Evidence From a Panel Data Analysis, Dokuz Eylül University Discussion Paper Series, No:05/06, 1-10.
• Levine, R., D. Renelt (1992). A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Regressions, The American Economic Review, 82(4), 942-963.
• Mankiw, N.G., D. Romer ve Weil, D.N. (1992), A contribution to the empirics of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437.
• Mavrov, H. (2007). The Size of Government Expenditure and the Rate of Economic Growth in Bulgaria. Economic Alternatives, 1, 53-63. Retrieved: 01.03.2018, https://www.unwe.bg/uploads/Alternatives /A06_01.2007.pdf.
• Minsky, H.P. (1975). John Maynard Keynes, New York: Columbia University Publications.
• Mitchell, D.J. (2011). Laffer Eğrisi Doğrultusunda Vergi Oranları, Vergilendirilebilir Gelir ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişkinin Anlaşılması (Çev. S. Çukurçayır), Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 161, Retrieved: 26 June 2020, https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/09/017.pdf.
• Pamuk, Y. ve U. Dündar (2016). Optimal Size of Public Expenditure: The Case of Turkey”, Hacettepe Üniversity Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 34(3), 23-50.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-section dependence in panels, University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, Retrieved: 20 September 2020, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00181-020-01875-7,
• Pesaran, H. M. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265–312.
• Pevcin, P. (2004a). Economic Output and Optimal Size of Government. Economic and Business Review, 6(3), 213-227.
• Pevcin, P. (2004b). Does the optimal size of government spending exist?, Paper presented to the EGPA (European Group of Public Administration), 2004 Annual Conference, Ljubljana.
• Rahn, R. ve Fox, H. (1996). What is the Optimum Size of Government? Vernon K. Kriebel Foundation.
• Ram, R. (1986). Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time-Series Data: Reply, America Economic Review, 79(1), 272-280.
• OECD (2020). General Government Spending, OECD Data, https://data.oecd.org /gga/general-government-spending.htm, Accessed date: 20th June 2020
• Schumpeter, J.A. (1934). Theory of Economic Development, Cambridge (MA): Harward University Press.
• Screpanti, E., Zamagni, S. (1993). An Outline of the History of Economic Thought, Oxford: Clarendon Publication.
• Scully, G. (1994). What is the Optimum Size Size of Government? National Centre for Policy Analysis Policy Report No: 188, Policy Report No: 316.
• Scully, G. (2008). Optimal Taxation, Economic Growth and Income Equality in the United States, National Center for Policy Analysis Policy Report No: 316.
• Stiglitz, Joseph E. (1996). The Role of Government in Economic Development, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics. 11-23
• Turan, T. (2014). Optimal Size of Government in Turkey, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4(2), 286-294.
• Uneze, E. (2013). The Relation Between Capital Formation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 16(3), 272-28.
• United Nations (1987). Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Vedder, R. ve Gallaway, L. (1998). Government Size and Economic Growth. Joint Economic Committee. Washington D.C., 1-15.
• Wagner, A. (1883). Three Extracts on Public Finance, Musgrave, A.R., Peacock, A.T., (ed.) (1967), Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, 1-27.
• World Bank (2020). The World Bank in Middle-Income Countries, Middle Income Countries Home, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mic/overview Accessed date: 12 June 2020.
• Yaman Songur, D. (2017). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investments and Foreign Trade on Gross Domestic Product: The Case of the Eurasian Countries, Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2(2), 117-133.