Disaggeration of global climate model data using different methods and predicting future precipitation

Öz

Climate change affects the world with increasing severity, leading to dangerous consequences. Global Climate change is increasing its effects worldwide every day and causing dangerous consequences. Especially, intense rainfall events caused by climate change lead to flooding disasters. These flooding events can result in loss of life and property damage. Therefore, various preventive measures are being implemented. One of these measures is the development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. However, since these curves are usually based on past historical data, they are not considered suitable for future use. For this reason, in this study, different methods were used to derive new IDF curves for the future, which include climate change, by using climate model data and disaggregated precipitation data.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate models
• Data disaggregation
• IDF curves

Küresel iklim model verilerinin farklı yöntemlerle ayrıştırılması ve geleceğe yönelik yağış tahminlerinin yapılması

Öz

Küresel iklim değişikliği, her geçen gün Dünya genelinde daha fazla etkisini artırarak tehlikeli sonuçlara neden olmaktadır. Özellikle iklim değişikliği kaynaklı şiddetli yağışlar, sel felaketlerine yol açmaktadır. Bu sel olayları, can kaybına ve maddi hasara neden olabilmektedir. Bu nedenle, çeşitli önleyici çalışmalar yürütülmektedir. Bu çalışmalardan biri, Yağış Şiddeti-Süre-Frekans (IDF) eğrilerinin oluşturulmasıdır. Ancak bu eğriler genellikle geçmiş tarihsel verilere dayandığından, gelecek için kullanılmaları uygun görülmemektedir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada iklim modeli verileri ve ayrıştırılmış yağış verileri kullanılarak iklim değişikliğini de içeren geleceğe yönelik yeni IDF eğrileri elde etmek için farklı yöntemler kullanılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim modelleri
• Veri ayrıştırma
• IDF eğrileri

Kaynakça

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