DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY)

Öz

Climate change is expressed as major changes in the average climate which exist for many years. Although climate change occurs on a global scale, the impact of climate change varies from region to region. Therefore, the analysis of the variations in meteorological variables is a very vital issue in monitoring of climate change. In this study, assignment of the change points and trends of annual mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data of the Konya Closed Basin in Turkey is examined. For this aim, air temperature data of 11 meteorology station were used. The change point of temperature time series data was examined using the Pettitt test, Standard Normal Homogeneity test and Buishand Range test. The Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho and Innovative Şen Trend methods were used to determine trends of air temperature.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• : Climate change,Konya Closed Basin,temperature,trend analysis

KONYA KAPALI HAVZASI (TÜRKİYE) YILLIK SICAKLIK VERİLERİNİN TREND ANALİZİ VE DEĞİŞİM NOKTALARININ BELİRLENMESİ

Öz

İklim değişikliği, uzun yıllar için var olan iklim ortalamalarındaki büyük değişimler olarak ifade edilmektedir. İklim değişikliği küresel ölçekte gerçekleşse de, etkileri bölgeden bölgeye değişmektedir. Bu nedenle, meteorolojik değişkenlerdeki değişikliklerin analizi iklim değişikliğinin izlenmesinde çok önemli bir konudur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki Konya Kapalı Havzası’nın yıllık ortalama sıcaklık, maksimum sıcaklık ve minimum sıcaklık verilerinin trendlerinin ve değişim noktalarının belirlenmesi incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla 11 meteoroloji istasyonunun hava sıcaklığı verileri kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık zaman serisi verilerinin değişim noktası Pettitt testi, Standart Normal Homojenlik testi ve Buishand Range testi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Hava sıcaklığı trendlerini belirlemek için Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho ve Yenilikçi Şen Trend yöntemleri kullanıldı.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği,Konya Kapalı Havzası,sıcaklık,trend analizi

Kaynakça

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