Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY)

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 393 - 404, 30.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.598289

Öz

Climate change
is expressed as major changes in the average climate which exist for many
years. Although climate change occurs on a global scale, the impact of climate
change varies from region to region. Therefore, the analysis of the variations
in meteorological variables is a very vital issue in monitoring of climate
change. In this study, assignment of the change points and trends of annual
mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data of the Konya
Closed Basin in Turkey is examined. For this aim, air temperature data of 11
meteorology station were used. The change point of temperature time series data
was examined using the Pettitt test, Standard Normal Homogeneity test and
Buishand Range test. The Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho and Innovative Şen Trend
methods were used to determine trends of air temperature.  

Kaynakça

  • [1] ŞİMŞEK, O., GÜMÜŞ, V., SOYDAN, N.G., YENİGÜN, K., KAVŞUT, M.E., TOPÇU, E., “Hatay İlinde Bazı Meteorolojik Verilerin Gidiş Analizi”, SDU International Technologic Science, 5(2), 132-144, 2013.
  • [2] MACKELLAR, N., NEW, M., JACK, C., “Observed and Modelled Trends in Rainfall and Temperature for South Africa: 1960–2010”, South African Journal of Science, 110(7/8), 51–63, 2014.
  • [3] KRUGER, A.C., SEKELE, S.S., “Trends in Extreme Temperature Indices in South Africa: 1962–2009”, International Journal of Climatology, 33(3), 661–676, 2013.
  • [4] BAYER ALTIN, T., BARAK, B., “Trends and Changes in Tropical and Summer Days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey”, Atmospheric Research, 196, 182-199, 2017.
  • [5] TABARI, H., TALAEE, P.H., “Recent Trends of Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperatures in the Western Half of Iran”, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 111(3-4), 121–131, 2011.
  • [6] SANTOS, M., FRAGOSO, M., “Precipitation Variability in Northern Portugal: Data Homogeneity Assessment and Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices”, Atmospheric Research, 131, 34-45, 2013.
  • [7] DABANLI, İ., ŞEN, Z., YELEĞEN, M.Ö., ŞİŞMAN, E., SELEK, B., GÜÇLÜ, Y.S., “Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method”, Water Resources Management, 30(14), 5193–5203, 2016
  • [8] OGUNTUNDE, P.G., ABIODUN, B.J., LISCHEID, G., “Spatial and Temporal Temperature Trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000”, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 118(1-2), 95–105, 2012.
  • [9] GAO, L., HUANG, J., CHEN, X., CHEN, Y., LIU, M., “Contributions of Natural Climate Changes and Human Activities to the Trend of Extreme Precipitation”, Atmospheric Research, 205, 60–69, 2018.
  • [10] RIBEIRO, S., CAINETA, J., COSTA, A.C., HENRIQUES, R., SOARES, A., “Detection of Inhomogeneities in Precipitation Time Series in Portugal Using Direct Sequential Simulation”, Atmospheric Research, 171, 147-158, 2016.
  • [11] FONTAINE, B., JANICOT, S., MONERIE, P.A., “Recent Changes in Air Temperature, Heat Waves Occurrences, and Atmospheric Circulation in Northern Africa”, Jounal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (15), 8536–8552, 2013.
  • [12] XU, M., KANG, S., WU, H., YUAN, X., “Detection of Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air Temperature and Precipitation Based on Long-Term Meteorological Station Observations over Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia”, Atmospheric Research, 203, 141-163, 2018.
  • [13] TAYEBI, S., MOHAMMADI, H., SHAMSIPOOR, A., TEYEBI, S., ALAVI, S.A., HOSEINIOUN, S., “Analysis of Land Surface Temperature Trend and Climate Resilience Challenges in Tehran”, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-019-02329-z
  • [14] ERİS, E., AĞIRALİOĞLU, N., “Homogeneity and Trend Analysis of Hydrometeorological Data of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey”, Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 4(2), 99-105, 2012.
  • [15] ROS, F.C., TOSAK, H., SIDEK, L.M., BASRI, H., “Homogeneity and Trends in Long-Term Rainfall Data, Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia”, International Journal of River Basin Management 14(2), 151–163, 2016.
  • [16] TAXAK, A.R., MURUMKAR, A.R., ARYA, D.S., “Long Term Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Trends and Homogeneity Analysis in Wainganga Basin, Central India”, Weather and Climate Extremes 4, 50-61, 2014.
  • [17] KUMAR, V., JAIN, S.K., “Trends in Rainfall Amount and Number of Rainy Days in River Basins of India (1951–2004)”, Hydrology Research, 42(4), 290-306, 2011.
  • [18] SAFARI, B., “Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Temperature in Rwanda During the Last Fifty Two Years”, Journal of Environmental Protection 3(6), 538-551, 2012.
  • [19] SHI, J., CUI, L., WEN, K., TIAN, Z., WEI, P., ZHANG, B., “Trends in the Consecutive Days of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China During 1961–2015”, Environmental Research 161, 381-391, 2018.
  • [20] ABATAN, A.A., ABIODUN, B.J., GUTOWSKI,. W.J. J.R, RASAQ-BALOGUN S.O., “Trends and Variability in Absolute Indices of Temperature Extremes over Nigeria: Linkage with NAO”, International Journal of Climatology, 38(2), 593–612, 2018.
  • [21] SIDDIK, M.A.Z., RAHMAN, M. “Trend Analysis of Maximum, Minimum, and Average Temperatures in Bangladesh: 1961–2008”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 116(3-4),721–730, 2014.
  • [22] ANONYMOUS, Havza Koruma Eylem Planlarının Hazırlanması Projesi – Konya Kapalı Havzası, TÜBİTAK MAM Çevre Enstitüsü, Gebze, Kocaeli, www.cygm.gov.tr/cygm/anasayfa/sutoprakyonetimi/havzakoruma.aspx?sflang=tr , 2010.
  • [23] HAWKINS, P.M., “Testing a Sequence of Observations for a Shift in Location”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72 (357), 180–186, 1977.
  • [24] COSTA, A.C., SOARES, A., “Homogenization of Climate Data; Review and New Perspective using Geostatistics”, Mathematical Geosciences, 41(3), 291–305, 2009.
  • [25] KANG, H.M., YUSOF, F., “Homogeneity Tests on Daily Rainfall Series in Peninsular Malaysia”, International Journal of Contemporary Mathematical Sciences, 7(1), 9– 22, 2012.
  • [26] WIJNGAARD, J.B., KLEIN TANK, A.M.G., KÖNNEN, G.P., “Homogeneity of 20th Century Europan Daily Temperature and Precipitation Series”, International Journal of Climatology 23(6), 679-692, 2003.
  • [27] ALEXANDERSSON, H., “A Homogeneity Test Applied to Precipitation Data”, Journal of Climatology 6(6), 661–675, 1986.
  • [28] BUISHAND, T.A., “Some Methods for Testing the Homogeneity of Rainfalls Records”, Journal of Hydrology, 58(1-2): 11–27, 1982.
  • [29] PETTITT, A.N., “A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change Point Problem”, Applied Statistics 28(2), 126–135, 1979.
  • [30] MANN, H.B., “Non-Parametric Tests Against Trend”, Econometrica 13(3), 245-259, 1945.
  • [31] KENDALL, M.G., Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, 1975.
  • [32] LEHMANN, E.L., Nonparametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks, Holden-Day, San Francisco, Calif, USA, 1975.
  • [33] SNEYERS, R., “On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations”, Technical Note 143, WMO no. 415, World Meteorological Organization, 1990.
  • [34] ŞEN, Z., “Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology”, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • [35] GÜÇLÜ, Y.S., “Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları”, Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Doğal Afetler Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 4(2), 182-191, 2018.
  • [36] YUE, S., PILON, P., CAVADIAS, G., “Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests for Detecting Monotonic Trends in Hydrological Series”, Journal of Hydrology, 259(1–4), 254–271, 2002.

KONYA KAPALI HAVZASI (TÜRKİYE) YILLIK SICAKLIK VERİLERİNİN TREND ANALİZİ VE DEĞİŞİM NOKTALARININ BELİRLENMESİ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 393 - 404, 30.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.598289

Öz

İklim
değişikliği, uzun yıllar için var olan iklim ortalamalarındaki büyük değişimler
olarak ifade edilmektedir. İklim değişikliği küresel ölçekte gerçekleşse de, etkileri
bölgeden bölgeye değişmektedir. Bu nedenle, meteorolojik değişkenlerdeki
değişikliklerin analizi iklim değişikliğinin izlenmesinde çok önemli bir
konudur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki Konya Kapalı Havzası’nın yıllık ortalama
sıcaklık, maksimum sıcaklık ve minimum sıcaklık verilerinin trendlerinin ve değişim
noktalarının belirlenmesi incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla 11 meteoroloji istasyonunun hava
sıcaklığı verileri kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık zaman serisi verilerinin değişim
noktası Pettitt testi, Standart Normal Homojenlik testi ve Buishand Range testi
kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Hava sıcaklığı trendlerini belirlemek için
Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho ve Yenilikçi Şen Trend yöntemleri kullanıldı
.

Kaynakça

  • [1] ŞİMŞEK, O., GÜMÜŞ, V., SOYDAN, N.G., YENİGÜN, K., KAVŞUT, M.E., TOPÇU, E., “Hatay İlinde Bazı Meteorolojik Verilerin Gidiş Analizi”, SDU International Technologic Science, 5(2), 132-144, 2013.
  • [2] MACKELLAR, N., NEW, M., JACK, C., “Observed and Modelled Trends in Rainfall and Temperature for South Africa: 1960–2010”, South African Journal of Science, 110(7/8), 51–63, 2014.
  • [3] KRUGER, A.C., SEKELE, S.S., “Trends in Extreme Temperature Indices in South Africa: 1962–2009”, International Journal of Climatology, 33(3), 661–676, 2013.
  • [4] BAYER ALTIN, T., BARAK, B., “Trends and Changes in Tropical and Summer Days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey”, Atmospheric Research, 196, 182-199, 2017.
  • [5] TABARI, H., TALAEE, P.H., “Recent Trends of Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperatures in the Western Half of Iran”, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 111(3-4), 121–131, 2011.
  • [6] SANTOS, M., FRAGOSO, M., “Precipitation Variability in Northern Portugal: Data Homogeneity Assessment and Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices”, Atmospheric Research, 131, 34-45, 2013.
  • [7] DABANLI, İ., ŞEN, Z., YELEĞEN, M.Ö., ŞİŞMAN, E., SELEK, B., GÜÇLÜ, Y.S., “Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method”, Water Resources Management, 30(14), 5193–5203, 2016
  • [8] OGUNTUNDE, P.G., ABIODUN, B.J., LISCHEID, G., “Spatial and Temporal Temperature Trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000”, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 118(1-2), 95–105, 2012.
  • [9] GAO, L., HUANG, J., CHEN, X., CHEN, Y., LIU, M., “Contributions of Natural Climate Changes and Human Activities to the Trend of Extreme Precipitation”, Atmospheric Research, 205, 60–69, 2018.
  • [10] RIBEIRO, S., CAINETA, J., COSTA, A.C., HENRIQUES, R., SOARES, A., “Detection of Inhomogeneities in Precipitation Time Series in Portugal Using Direct Sequential Simulation”, Atmospheric Research, 171, 147-158, 2016.
  • [11] FONTAINE, B., JANICOT, S., MONERIE, P.A., “Recent Changes in Air Temperature, Heat Waves Occurrences, and Atmospheric Circulation in Northern Africa”, Jounal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (15), 8536–8552, 2013.
  • [12] XU, M., KANG, S., WU, H., YUAN, X., “Detection of Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air Temperature and Precipitation Based on Long-Term Meteorological Station Observations over Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia”, Atmospheric Research, 203, 141-163, 2018.
  • [13] TAYEBI, S., MOHAMMADI, H., SHAMSIPOOR, A., TEYEBI, S., ALAVI, S.A., HOSEINIOUN, S., “Analysis of Land Surface Temperature Trend and Climate Resilience Challenges in Tehran”, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-019-02329-z
  • [14] ERİS, E., AĞIRALİOĞLU, N., “Homogeneity and Trend Analysis of Hydrometeorological Data of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey”, Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 4(2), 99-105, 2012.
  • [15] ROS, F.C., TOSAK, H., SIDEK, L.M., BASRI, H., “Homogeneity and Trends in Long-Term Rainfall Data, Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia”, International Journal of River Basin Management 14(2), 151–163, 2016.
  • [16] TAXAK, A.R., MURUMKAR, A.R., ARYA, D.S., “Long Term Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Trends and Homogeneity Analysis in Wainganga Basin, Central India”, Weather and Climate Extremes 4, 50-61, 2014.
  • [17] KUMAR, V., JAIN, S.K., “Trends in Rainfall Amount and Number of Rainy Days in River Basins of India (1951–2004)”, Hydrology Research, 42(4), 290-306, 2011.
  • [18] SAFARI, B., “Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Temperature in Rwanda During the Last Fifty Two Years”, Journal of Environmental Protection 3(6), 538-551, 2012.
  • [19] SHI, J., CUI, L., WEN, K., TIAN, Z., WEI, P., ZHANG, B., “Trends in the Consecutive Days of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China During 1961–2015”, Environmental Research 161, 381-391, 2018.
  • [20] ABATAN, A.A., ABIODUN, B.J., GUTOWSKI,. W.J. J.R, RASAQ-BALOGUN S.O., “Trends and Variability in Absolute Indices of Temperature Extremes over Nigeria: Linkage with NAO”, International Journal of Climatology, 38(2), 593–612, 2018.
  • [21] SIDDIK, M.A.Z., RAHMAN, M. “Trend Analysis of Maximum, Minimum, and Average Temperatures in Bangladesh: 1961–2008”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 116(3-4),721–730, 2014.
  • [22] ANONYMOUS, Havza Koruma Eylem Planlarının Hazırlanması Projesi – Konya Kapalı Havzası, TÜBİTAK MAM Çevre Enstitüsü, Gebze, Kocaeli, www.cygm.gov.tr/cygm/anasayfa/sutoprakyonetimi/havzakoruma.aspx?sflang=tr , 2010.
  • [23] HAWKINS, P.M., “Testing a Sequence of Observations for a Shift in Location”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72 (357), 180–186, 1977.
  • [24] COSTA, A.C., SOARES, A., “Homogenization of Climate Data; Review and New Perspective using Geostatistics”, Mathematical Geosciences, 41(3), 291–305, 2009.
  • [25] KANG, H.M., YUSOF, F., “Homogeneity Tests on Daily Rainfall Series in Peninsular Malaysia”, International Journal of Contemporary Mathematical Sciences, 7(1), 9– 22, 2012.
  • [26] WIJNGAARD, J.B., KLEIN TANK, A.M.G., KÖNNEN, G.P., “Homogeneity of 20th Century Europan Daily Temperature and Precipitation Series”, International Journal of Climatology 23(6), 679-692, 2003.
  • [27] ALEXANDERSSON, H., “A Homogeneity Test Applied to Precipitation Data”, Journal of Climatology 6(6), 661–675, 1986.
  • [28] BUISHAND, T.A., “Some Methods for Testing the Homogeneity of Rainfalls Records”, Journal of Hydrology, 58(1-2): 11–27, 1982.
  • [29] PETTITT, A.N., “A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change Point Problem”, Applied Statistics 28(2), 126–135, 1979.
  • [30] MANN, H.B., “Non-Parametric Tests Against Trend”, Econometrica 13(3), 245-259, 1945.
  • [31] KENDALL, M.G., Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, 1975.
  • [32] LEHMANN, E.L., Nonparametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks, Holden-Day, San Francisco, Calif, USA, 1975.
  • [33] SNEYERS, R., “On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations”, Technical Note 143, WMO no. 415, World Meteorological Organization, 1990.
  • [34] ŞEN, Z., “Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology”, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • [35] GÜÇLÜ, Y.S., “Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları”, Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Doğal Afetler Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 4(2), 182-191, 2018.
  • [36] YUE, S., PILON, P., CAVADIAS, G., “Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests for Detecting Monotonic Trends in Hydrological Series”, Journal of Hydrology, 259(1–4), 254–271, 2002.
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İnşaat Mühendisliği
Bölüm İnşaat Mühendisliği
Yazarlar

Cihangir Koycegız 0000-0002-0510-1164

Meral Buyukyıldız 0000-0003-1426-3314

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Ocak 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 29 Temmuz 2019
Kabul Tarihi 29 Kasım 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Koycegız, C., & Buyukyıldız, M. (2020). DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY). Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 393-404. https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.598289
AMA Koycegız C, Buyukyıldız M. DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY). NÖHÜ Müh. Bilim. Derg. Ocak 2020;9(1):393-404. doi:10.28948/ngumuh.598289
Chicago Koycegız, Cihangir, ve Meral Buyukyıldız. “DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY)”. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 9, sy. 1 (Ocak 2020): 393-404. https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.598289.
EndNote Koycegız C, Buyukyıldız M (01 Ocak 2020) DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY). Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 9 1 393–404.
IEEE C. Koycegız ve M. Buyukyıldız, “DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY)”, NÖHÜ Müh. Bilim. Derg., c. 9, sy. 1, ss. 393–404, 2020, doi: 10.28948/ngumuh.598289.
ISNAD Koycegız, Cihangir - Buyukyıldız, Meral. “DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY)”. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi 9/1 (Ocak 2020), 393-404. https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.598289.
JAMA Koycegız C, Buyukyıldız M. DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY). NÖHÜ Müh. Bilim. Derg. 2020;9:393–404.
MLA Koycegız, Cihangir ve Meral Buyukyıldız. “DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY)”. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 9, sy. 1, 2020, ss. 393-04, doi:10.28948/ngumuh.598289.
Vancouver Koycegız C, Buyukyıldız M. DETERMINATION OF CHANGE POINT AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DATA IN KONYA CLOSED BASIN (TURKEY). NÖHÜ Müh. Bilim. Derg. 2020;9(1):393-404.

download