Marriage Duration and Divorce in Türkiye: A Microeconometric Analysis of Women’s First Marriages

Öz

This study aims to examine the socioeconomic and demographic factors affecting the probability of divorce and the duration of first marriages among women in Türkiye. To this end, binary logit and log-logistic accelerated failure time models were estimated using the 2021 Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) Turkey Family Structure Survey microdataset, which provides the most current and comprehensive data for the variables considered in the study. The findings confirm that factors such as age at marriage, having children, employment status, type of marriage and other marital characteristics, education level and personal income, disability status, chronic disease, and residence in highly urbanized provinces have an impact on the probability of divorce and the duration of first marriages for women in Turkey. However, for some variables (such as education level, type of marriage, and age at marriage), it was found that the effect of the variable on the duration of marriage differed from its effect on the probability of divorce. This highlights the importance of alternative models for time-to-event data structures where the choice between alternatives and the time elapsed until that choice are significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Divorce
• Binary logit model
• Duration models
• Türkiye
• Family structure

Türkiye’de Evlilik Süresi ve Boşanma: Kadınların İlk Evliliklerine İlişkin Mikroekonometrik Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de kadınların ilk evliliklerinden boşanma olasılıklarını ve ilk evlilik sürelerini etkileyen sosyoekonomik ve demografik faktörlerin analiz edilmesidir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmada ele alınan değişkenler için en güncel ve kapsamlı verileri sağlayan 2021 yılı TÜİK Türkiye Aile Yapısı Araştırması mikro veri seti kullanılarak ikili logit ve log-lojistik hızlandırılmış bozulma zamanı modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular; evlilik yaşı, çocuk sahibi olma, istihdam durumu, evlilik şekli ve evliliğe ilişkin diğer bazı karakteristikler, eğitim düzeyi ve kişisel gelir, engel durumu, kronik hastalık ve yüksek kentleşme gibi faktörlerin Türkiye’de kadınların ilk evliliklerinden boşanma olasılıkları ve evlilik süreleri üzerine etkilerini doğrular. Ancak bazı değişkenler için (eğitim düzeyi, evlilik şekli ve evlilik yaşı gibi) değişkenin evlilik süresi üzerindeki etkisi ile boşanma olasılığı üzerindeki etkilerinin yön bakımından farklılaştığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum alternatifler arasında yapılan tercihin ve tercihe kadar geçen sürenin önemli olduğu (time-to-event) veri yapıları için, alternatif modellerin önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Boşanma
• İkili logit model
• Süre modelleri
• Türkiye
• Aile yapısı

Kaynakça

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