Türkiye’de Ekonomik Aktivite ile Trafik Kazaları Arasındaki Doğrusal Olmayan İlişki

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2015-2025 döneminde Türkiye’de ekonomik aktivite ile trafik kazaları arasındaki doğrusal olmayan ilişkiyi incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada aylık frekanslı veriler kullanılmış; yapısal kırılmaları esnek biçimde modelleyen Fourier ARDL yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, ekonomik aktivite ile trafik kazaları arasında ters-U biçiminde bir ilişkinin (Trafik Güvenliği Kuznets Eğrisi) varlığını göstermektedir. Ekonomik faaliyetlerdeki artış başlangıçta kaza riskini yükseltmekte, ancak belirli bir gelişim eşiğinden sonra bu etki zayıflamaktadır. Ayrıca, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın trafik kazalarını azaltmak yerine paradoksal olarak artırdığı bulunmuştur. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin karayolu odaklı ulaştırma yapısı nedeniyle ekonomik çevrimlerin kaza dinamikleri üzerinde belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, trafik güvenliği stratejilerinin makroekonomik dalgalanmalar ve modal değişimler göz önünde bulundurularak dinamik bir şekilde oluşturulması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trafik Kazaları
• Ekonomik Aktivite
• Trafik Güvenliği Kuznets Eğrisi
• Fourier ARDL

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Economic Activity and Traffic Accidents in Türkiye

Öz

This study aims to examine the non-linear relationship between economic activity and traffic accidents in Türkiye over the period 2015-2025. The research uses monthly frequency data and applies the Fourier ARDL method, which flexibly models structural breaks. Empirical findings indicate the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic activity and traffic accidents (Traffic Safety Kuznets Curve). The increase in economic activities initially raises the risk of accidents, but after a certain development threshold, this effect weakens. Moreover, it is found that an increase in oil prices paradoxically raises traffic accidents rather than reducing them. The study reveals that due to Turkey's road-oriented transport structure, economic cycles are decisive on accident dynamics. The results show that traffic safety strategies should be designed dynamically, taking into account macroeconomic fluctuations and modal shifts.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Traffic Accidents
• Economic Activity
• Traffic Safety Kuznets Curve
• Fourier ARDL

Kaynakça

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