Türkiye’de Reel Konut Fiyatlarının Faiz, Kur ve Enflasyon Şoklarına Asimetrik Tepkisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Türkiye’de konut fiyatları son yıllarda barınma maliyetleri, hanehalkı serveti, finansal istikrar ve enflasyon beklentileri açısından temel makroekonomik göstergelerden biri haline gelmiştir. Çalışma, Türkiye’de reel konut fiyatlarının konut kredisi faiz oranı, USD/TL kuru ve yıllık enflasyon şoklarına verdiği asimetrik tepkileri NARDL yaklaşımıyla incelemektedir. Analizde 2010:01–2026:05 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılmış, bağımlı değişken olarak TÜFE’den arındırılmış reel konut fiyat endeksinin logaritması esas alınmıştır. Konut kredisi faizi, USD/TL kuru ve yıllık enflasyon değişkenleri pozitif ve negatif kısmi toplamlarına ayrıştırılarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Birim kök testleri, değişkenlerin I(0) veya I(1) özellik taşıdığını ve I(2) yapı bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Ampirik bulgular, düzey değişkenleri arasında anlamlı bir ilişkiye işaret etmekle birlikte hata düzeltme katsayısının istatistiksel olarak zayıf olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle sonuçlar uzun dönem dengeye güçlü ve hızlı uyarlanma ilişkisi yerine kısa ve orta dönem asimetrik tepkiler üzerinden değerlendirilmiştir. En güçlü bulgu faiz kanalında ortaya çıkmaktadır. Konut kredisi faiz oranındaki artışlar reel konut fiyatları üzerinde kısa dönemde negatif ve anlamlı etki yaratırken, faiz düşüşleri aynı ölçüde ters yönlü bir etki üretmemektedir. Enflasyon artışları reel konut fiyatlarını kısa dönemde pozitif etkilemekte, enflasyon düşüşleri ise anlamlı bir karşılık oluşturmamaktadır. Kur kanalındaki asimetri bulguları model seçimine ve kırılma dönemlerinin dikkate alınmasına daha duyarlıdır. Bulgular, Türkiye konut piyasasında makro-finansal şokların yönüne göre farklı fiyat tepkileri oluştuğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Reel konut fiyatları
• NARDL
• Faiz oranı
• Döviz kuru
• Enflasyon

Asymmetric Responses of Real House Prices in Türkiye to Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Inflation Shocks: A NARDL Approach

Öz

Housing prices in Türkiye have become a key macroeconomic indicator in relation to housing affordability, household wealth, financial stability, and inflation expectations. This article examines the asymmetric responses of real housing prices in Türkiye to mortgage interest rate, USD/TL exchange rate, and annual inflation shocks using the NARDL approach. The empirical analysis uses monthly data for the period 2010:01–2026:05, with the logarithm of the CPI-deflated real housing price index as the dependent variable. Mortgage interest rates, the USD/TL exchange rate, and annual inflation are decomposed into positive and negative partial sums to capture asymmetric effects. Unit root tests indicate that the variables are either I(0) or I(1), with no evidence of I(2) integration. The findings point to a meaningful level relationship among the variables, although the error correction coefficient remains statistically weak. For this reason, the results are interpreted mainly through short- and medium-run asymmetric responses rather than a strong and rapid long-run adjustment mechanism. The most robust finding concerns the interest rate channel. Increases in mortgage interest rates exert a negative and statistically significant short-run effect on real housing prices, whereas decreases in interest rates do not generate a symmetric opposite response. Increases in inflation have a positive short-run effect on real housing prices, while declines in inflation do not produce a significant reverse effect. Evidence on exchange rate asymmetry is more sensitive to model specification and the inclusion of structural break dummies. Overall, the results show that real housing prices in Türkiye react differently depending on the direction of macro-financial shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Real housing prices
• NARDL
• Interest rate
• Exchange rate
• Inflation

Kaynakça

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