TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE YURTİÇİ KREDİLERİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNİN ROLÜ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 142 - 162, 20.10.2023

Cemil Varlık

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1348126

Öz

Gelişen piyasa ekonomilerinde, bankacılık kesiminin yurtiçi kredilerindeki hızlı düşüşlerin ve aşırı artışların ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilemesi beklenen bir sonuçtur. Bu yüzden yurtiçi kredilerdeki çöküşün veya aşırı kredi genişlemesinin olumsuz etkilerini hafifletmeye yönelik politikaların oluşturulabilmesi için, yurtiçi kredi büyümesini belirleyen faktörlerin bilinmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde 2004Q1-2020Q1 dönemi için sermaye girişlerinin yurtiçi kredi büyümesi üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi amacıyla, yedi değişken (GSYH büyümesi, tüketici fiyat enflasyonu, kredi faiz oranı, brüt sermaye girişleri, nominal döviz kuru, reel krediler ve reel borsa getirisi) içeren yapısal VAR modeli oluşturulmaktadır. Brüt sermaye girişlerinin farklı bileşenlerinin (FDI, portföy ve diğer yatırım girişleri), firmalara ve hane halklarına verilen banka kredileri üzerindeki etkileri de ayrı ayrı araştırılmaktadır. Etki tepki ve varyans ayrıştırması analizleri, bankaların toplam kredileri üzerinde; brüt FDI girişlerinin negatif, buna karşın brüt portföy girişlerinin ve brüt diğer yatırım girişlerinin pozitif etki yarattığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca brüt portföy hisse senedi girişleri ile bankalar ve diğer kesimlere dönük brüt diğer yatırım girişlerinin hem firma hem de hane halkı kredilerini pozitif ve anlamlı biçimde etkilediği kanıtlanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Banka kredileri, brüt sermaye girişleri, yapısal VAR

DETERMINANTS OF DOMESTIC CREDITS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY: THE ROLE OF CAPITAL INFLOWS

Öz

In emerging market economies, it is an expected result that the rapid declines and excessive increases in domestic credits of banking sector will negatively affect economic growth. Therefore, in order to design policies to mitigate the negative effects of domestic credit collapse or excessive credit expansion, it is necessary to know the factors that determine domestic credit growth. In this study, a structural VAR model which includes seven variables (GDP growth, consumer price inflation, lending interest rate, gross capital inflows, nominal exchange rate, real bank loans, and real stock returns) is estimated for the period 2004Q1-2020Q1. The effects of different components of gross capital inflows (FDI, portfolio and other investment inflows) on bank loans to firms and households are also examined separately. Impulse response and variance decomposition analyzes show that gross FDI inflows have a negative effect on banks' total loans, whereas gross portfolio and gross other investment inflows have a positive effect. In addition, it is proven that gross portfolio equity inflows and gross other investment inflows to banks and other sectors positively and significantly affect both firm and household loans.

Anahtar Kelimeler

bank loans, gross capital inflows, yapısal VAR

Kaynakça

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