Yeni Güvenlik Senaryosunda Ganja Boşluğunun Stratejik Önemi

Öz

Gence Koridoru, Azerbaycan ile Gürcistan arasında bulunan sınır bölgesidir. Bu iki ülke arasındaki bu bağlantı, Gence Koridoru’nun birinden ayırdığı ve bölgede başka bir müttefik eksenini oluşturan Ermenistan ve Rusya’nın coğrafi yakınlığı Azerbaycan ve Gürcistan’ı birbirine bağlayan Gence Koridoru’nu stratejik bir bölgeyi haline getirmektedir. Ayrıca Gence, Avrupa ve Karadeniz’den Hazar Denizi ve Orta Asya’ya uzanan stratejik bir yoldur ve bu yol sadece ticari ve askeri geçişleri değil, aynı zamanda Türk dünyasının Türkiye ile Orta Asya arasındaki bağlantısını sağlamaktadır. Türkiye’nin Kuzey Atlantik Antlaşması Örgütü (NATO) üyeliği, yine Türkiye’nin Azerbaycan’la yakın ilişkileri ve Rusya’nın yakın coğrafyasını kontrol etme hedeflerine karşı Gürcistan’ın NATO’ya üye olma isteği gibi Gence Koridoru’nu çevreleyen aktörlerin karmaşık ilişkileri, bu bölge üzerinde olası bir çatışma riskini barındırmaktadır. Bu nedenle, bu alanın kontrolü, askeri ittifaklar arasında potansiyel bir çatışma alanına dönüşmesini beraberinde getirmektedir. Rusya'nın Ukrayna'yı işgali, Avrupa Güvenlik anlayışını değiştirmiş ve resmi aday olan Ukrayna ve Moldova ile birlikte Gürcistan'ın Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyeliğine başvurmasına yol açmıştır. Bu işgal aynı zamanda Türkiye ile AB ilişkilerini değiştirmiş ve Sovyet sonrası coğrafyada bazı gri alanlar yaratmıştır. Bu gri bölgeler, savaş durumu olmamasına rağmen barışın garanti edilmediği yerlerdir. Ancak son yıllarda Ukrayna’da olduğu gibi potansiyel olarak çatışmaya dönüşebileceği bulanık alanlardır. Bu çalışma, Gence Koridoru’nu içerisinde yer aldığı bölge ve jeopolitik konumu içerisinde analiz etmekte ve yeni güvenlik senaryosu çerçevesinde gri bölge kavramını tartışmaktadır. Son olarak, çalışma, Gence Koridoru’nun stratejik konumu ve bunun tüm bölge üzerindeki etkilerini vurgulanarak güvenlik anlayışını geliştirmeyi amaçlayan bazı sonuçlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kafkasya
• jeopolitik
• çatışma
• Gence Boşluğu
• uluslararası güvenlik

Strategic Importance of the Ganja Gap in the New Security Scenario

Abstract

The Ganja gap is the border space comprised between Azerbaijan and Georgia. This connection between these two countries represents a strategic zone due to the proximity of another axis of allies: Armenia and Russia, which are separated by the Ganja gap. Moreover, Ganja is the strategic path from Europe and the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, which also entails not only commercial and military transits but also the connection of the Turkic world between Türkiye and Central Asia. The complex relations of the actors surrounding the Ganja gap warn this space of a potential conflict: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership of Türkiye, its close relations to Azerbaijan, the aspirations of Georgia to become a member of this alliance, opposed to Russia’s intention to control its near abroad. Because of this, the control of this space represents a potential space of clash between military alliances. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the conception of the European Security scenario, leading Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to apply for European Union (EU) membership, being the former two official candidates, changing EU relations with Türkiye and creating some grey zones in the post-Soviet space. These grey zones are blurry spaces where peace is not guaranteed though there is no war situation – but could potentially evolve as such, as it happened in Ukraine in recent years. This contribution analyses the Ganja gap: its territory, and geopolitical context and discusses the new security scenario and the grey zone concept. It finally delivers some conclusions aiming to provide security by emphasising the strategic location of Ganja Gap and its implications for the whole region.

Keywords

• Caucasus
• geopolitics
• conflict
• Ganja Gap
• international security
• gray zone

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