Global Economic Balance of Power and Security Policies

Abstract

Economic multipolarity is gradually deepening in the world. Supply chains have become a complex and extensive international network and global trade in intermediate goods has exceeded trade in final goods. While increased specialization has led to efficiency gains, global value chains have also become a source of vulnerability for the global economy. Production chains and financing networks that worked relatively well under favorable global conditions have proven less resilient in times of COVID-19 and increased geopolitical tension. Increasing commercial activity and common interests among developing countries, as well as political rapprochement, have led to conflict between the economic and national security goals of developed countries, and with the impact of previously ignored developments such as food insecurity, energy scarcity and scarcity, the term “International Security” has become increasingly difficult to define. Protecting economic security requires establishing strategic technology policies and making complex decisions that neutralize security threats without undermining growth. Global economic forecasts strengthen the possibility of a hegemonic struggle between China and the USA in the future. As in the struggle for economic power, US-China relations are complex in the field of international security. Increasing geopolitical tensions and modernization requirements indicate that the increase in defense expenditures will continue in the coming years. On the other hand, the financing of defense expenditures is being discussed at the global level due to the increasing political costs of increasing public debts and tax increases, especially in developing countries. In this study, the current situation of the economic power balance is examined in the light of the data and predictions about the course of the global economic power balance and security policies are evaluated in line with future projections.

Keywords

• USA
• CHINA
• Security
• Trade
• Globalization

Küresel Ekonomik Güç Dengesi Ve Güvenlik Politikaları

Öz

Ekonomik düzlemde dünyada çok kutupluluk giderek derinleşmektedir. Tedarik zincirleri karmaşık ve geniş bir uluslararası ağ haline gelmiş ve küresel düzeyde ara mal ticareti nihai mal ticaretini aşmıştır. Artan uzmanlaşma verimlilik kazanımlarına yol açarken aynı zamanda küresel değer zincirleri küresel ekonomi için bir kırılganlık kaynağı haline gelmiştir. Olumlu küresel koşullar altında nispeten iyi çalışan üretim zincirleri ve finansman ağlarının COVID-19 ve artan jeopolitik gerilim zamanlarında daha az dayanıklı olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında artan ticari faaliyet ve ortak çıkarların siyasi yakınlaşmayı da beraberinde getirmesi gelişmiş ülkelerin ekonomi ve ulusal güvenlik hedeflerinin çatışmaya başlamasına yol açmış, gıda güvensizliği, enerji kıtlığı ve eksikliği gibi daha önce göz ardı edilen gelişmelerin de etkisiyle güvenlik tanımı savaş ve terörizmle ilgili konuların ötesine geçmiştir. Ekonomik güvenliğin korunması stratejik teknoloji politikaları oluşturulmasını ve büyümeyi baltalamadan güvenlik tehditlerini etkisiz hale getiren karmaşık kararlar almayı gerektirmektedir. Küresel ekonomik tahminler gelecekte Çin ile ABD arasında bir hegemonik mücadele olasılığını güçlendirmektedir. Ekonomik güç mücadelesinde olduğu gibi uluslararası güvenlik alanında da ABD-Çin ilişkileri karmaşık bir görünüm içermektedir. Artan jeopolitik gerilimler ile modernizasyon gereksinimleri savunma harcamalarındaki artışın önümüzdeki yıllarda devam edeceğine işaret etmektedir. Diğer yandan, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde artan kamu borçları ve vergi artışlarının siyasi maliyetinin artması ile savunma harcamalarının finansmanı küresel düzeyde tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada veriler ışığında ekonomik güç dengesinin mevcut durumu incelenerek geleceğe yönelik projeksiyonlar doğrultusunda küresel ekonomik güç dengesi ve güvenlik politikalarının seyri ile ilgili tahminler değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ABD
• Güvenlik
• Ticaret
• Küreselleşme
• çin

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