Esad’ın Düşüşüne Kadar Türkiye’nin Suriye ve Irak’taki Askeri Operasyonlarının Neoklasik Jeo-stratejik Analizi

Öz

Bu makale, Türkiye'nin 2024 yılında Esad'ın düşüşüne kadar Suriye’nin ve Irak'ın Kuzey’inde yürüttüğü askeri operasyonların nedenlerini, stratejik mantığını, sonuçlarını ve etkinliğini, başta Kürdistan İşçi Partisi (PKK) olmak üzere militan Kürt gruplarla mücadelesi bağlamında incelemekte ve değerlendirmektedir. Neoklasik bir jeo-stratejik çerçevenin benimsendiği bu çalışmada, çevresel gerçekler ve bu gerçeklere bağlı tehdit ve fırsatlara ilişkin elit algıları, elitlerin stratejik tercihlerini açıklamada merkezi faktörler olarak ele alınmaktadır. Vaka çalışması, Türkiye'nin PKK unsurlarıyla askeri çatışmasının evrimini, Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) elitlerinin tehdit ve fırsat algıları ile yeni Osmanlıcılık ve Türk-İslam milliyetçiliği ideolojik eğilimleriyle birlikte incelemektedir. Birincil ve ikincil verilerin geniş incelenmesine dayanarak makale, Türkiye’nin Suriye ve Irak’taki operasyonlarının, PKK bağlantılı grupların genişlemesi, Suriye’deki insani kriz ve Arap Baharı sırasında yaşanan bölgesel istikrarsızlıkla şekillenen güvensiz bir sınır gerçekliğine verilmiş, esas olarak hesaplanmış bir yanıt olduğunu savunmaktadır. Bu operasyonların hem Suriye hem de Irak'ta “şimdi olması sonra olmasından iyidir” zorunluluğu altında, bölücülük ve terörizm tehditlerine karşı çıkmayı amaçlayan önleyici bir stratejik mantığı yansıttığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Neoklasik Jeostrateji
• Türk Askeri Operasyonları
• Neo-Osmanlıcılık
• Önleyici Strateji
• PKK

Neoclassical Geo-strategic Analysis of Türkiye’s Military Operations in Syria and Iraq Till Assad’s Fall

Öz

This article examines and evaluates the reasons, strategic logic, outcomes, and effectiveness of Türkiye's military operations in northern Syria and Iraq until Assad's fall in 2024 as part of its campaign against Kurdish militant factions, particularly the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Adopting a neoclassical geostrategic framework, paper treats environmental realities and elite perceptions of the threats and opportunities associated with them as central factors explaining elites' strategic decisions. In this way, it explores the evolution of Türkiye’s military confrontation with PKK and associated groups along with Justice and Development Party (JDP) elites' perceptions of threats and opportunities and ideological leanings of neo-Ottomanism and Turkish-Islamic nationalism. Relying on extensive examination of primary and secondary data, the article argues that Türkiye’s operations in Syria and Iraq are mainly a calculated response to an insecure border reality marked by the expansion of PKK, the humanitarian crisis in Syria, and regional instability amid the Arab Spring. Thus, it is argued that these operations are the results of a preventive strategic logic aimed at countering separatism and terrorism threats, under the imperative of "better now than later" in both Syria and Iraq.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Neoclassical Geostrategy
• Turkish Military Operations
• Neo-Ottomanism
• Preventive Strategy
• PKK

Kaynakça

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