Examining the Connection Between Real Wages, Labor Productivity, and Inflation Using Nonlinear Methods in the Case of Türkiye: New Evidence Based on Wavelet Decomposition

Öz

This study investigates the interrelationship between real wages, labor productivity, and inflation in Türkiye's manufacturing sector from 2005 to 2024, utilizing Fourier-based methods and wavelet decomposition. The analysis results indicate that inflation and the square of real wages reduce labor productivity, while real wages increase labor productivity. Furthermore, an inverted U-shaped relationship was found between wages and productivity. Fourier Granger causality results indicate a bidirectional causality relationship between the variables. In the short-term, the direction of causality is from inflation and the square of wages to labor productivity, while in the medium- and long-term, there is a reciprocal causality relationship.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Labor Productivity
• Real Wages
• Inflation
• Fourier Cointegration-Causality
• Wavelet Decomposition

Türkiye Örneğinde Reel Ücretler, Emek Verimliliği ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Bağlantının Doğrusal Olmayan Yöntemler Kullanılarak İncelenmesi: Dalgacık Ayrıştırmasına Dayalı Yeni Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2005-2024 yılları arasında Türkiye imalat sektöründe reel ücretler, emek verimliliği ve enflasyon arasındaki karşılıklı ilişkiyi Fourier tabanlı yöntemler ve dalgacık ayrıştırması yöntemini kullanılarak incelemektedir. Analiz sonuçları, enflasyonun ve reel ücretlerin karesinin emek verimliliğini azalttığını, reel ücretlerin ise emek verimliliğini artırdığını belirtmektedir. Ayrıca reel ücretler ve emek verimliliği arasında ters U-şeklinde bir ilişkinin olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Fourier Granger nedensellik sonuçları, değişkenler arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisine işaret etmektedir. Kısa vadede nedenselliğin yönü enflasyondan ve reel ücretlerin karesinden emek verimliliğine doğru iken, orta ve uzun vadede karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisi vardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Emek Verimliliği
• Reel Ücretler
• Enflasyon
• Fourier Eşbütünleşme-Nedensellik
• Dalgacık Ayrıştırması

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