The Causality Between Financial Development and Energy Consumption in Turkey: The Period of 1960-2011

Öz

This study tries to analyze the causal relationship between financial development and energy consumption for Turkey. Data set covering the period of 1960-2011 was used.. As financial development indicators, bank deposits and bank loans are used. In addition, per capita income which affects positively or negatively the financial development indicators and energy consumption is included in data set. As energy consumption data, energy consumption for per capita is employed.  Johansen co-integration test and VAR Granger causality analysis has been employed in the study. According to one of the the results, there is no correlation between financial development and energy consumption in the long term. Other result says that there is a dual casuality between bank deposits, which is an indicator of financial development, and energy consumption in the short run. An increase in bank deposits raises energy consumption and a decrease in bank deposits reduces energy consumption.  Likewise, while energy consumption contributes an increase in bank deposits, reduction of energy consumption will lead to a reduction in bank deposits

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development,Energy Consumption,Johansen Cointegration Analysis,VAR Granger Causality Test

Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Enerji Tüketimi Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1960-2011 Dönemi

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin finansal gelişmesi ve enerji tüketimi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini analiz etmeye çalışmış ve 1960–2011 yıllarını kapsayan veri seti kullanılmıştır. Finansal gelişmişlik göstergeleri olarak banka mevduatları ve banka kredileri kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca finansal gelişmişlik göstergelerini ve enerji tüketimini etkileyen kişi başına düşen milli gelir veri setine dâhil edilmiştir. Enerji tüketimi verisi olarak ise kişi başına düşen enerji tüketimi alınmıştır. Çalışmada, Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi ve VAR Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Ekonometrik analiz sonucunda uzun dönemde finansal gelişme ve enerji tüketimi arasında bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise finansal gelişme göstergelerinden banka mevduatları ve enerji tüketimi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Banka mevduatlarının artması enerji tüketimini arttırırken, banka mevduatlarının azalması da enerji tüketimini azaltmaktadır. Aynı şekilde enerji tüketiminin artması banka mevduatlarını arttırırken, enerji tüketiminin azalması da banka mevduatlarının azalmasına neden olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme,Enerji Tüketimi,Johansen Eşbütünleşme Analizi,VAR Granger Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

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