Individual Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Turkey

Öz

In this study, individual factors affecting the unemployment duration of unemployed persons in the labour market of Turkey are examined. For this purpose, the unemployed persons in 15 cities from different regions of Turkey have been surveyed using a questionnaire prepared through reviewing the studies done before. The number of questionnaires administered is 2162. Survival analysis has been used as the econometric method so that social, demographic and economic factors influencing the unemployment duration of persons have been specified. Then, findings have been employed to put forward some suggestions for the solution to the problem of high rates of unemployment in Turkey. Besides, the study is considered to provide a better understanding as to the labour market of the country, thereby contributing to the discussions as regards to the problem of unemployment, which is among the most important economic issues of the country. Furthermore, it is deemed to shape the policy aiming to shorten the unemployment duration.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Unemployment Duration,Unemployed,Turkey

Türkiye’de İşsizlik Süresinin Bireysel Belirleyicileri

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de emek piyasasında işsiz bireylerin işsizlik süresini etkileyen bireysel faktörler inceleme konusu yapılmıştır. Bu amaca uygun olarak daha önce yapılmış çalışmalardan faydalanılarak hazırlanan anket, Türkiye’nin farklı bölgelerinde bulunan 15 ilde, işsiz bireylere uygulanmıştır. Yapılan toplam anket sayısı 2162’dir. Ekonometrik yöntem olarak sağ kalım analizi kullanılmıştır. Böylece, işsiz bireylerin işsizlik süreleri üzerinde etkili olan sosyal, demografik ve ekonomik faktörler belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular ile işsizliğin yoğun olduğu bir ülke olan Türkiye’de, bu sorunun çözümü için öneriler geliştirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmanın ülkedeki emek piyasasının daha iyi anlaşılmasına fırsat tanıyacağı düşünülmektedir. İşgücü piyasasının daha iyi anlaşılması ise, toplumun en önemli ekonomik sorunlarından biri olan işsizlik ile ilgili tartışmalara katkı sağlayacaktır. Özellikle işsizlik süresinin azaltılması için oluşturulabilecek politikalara yön verebileceği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İşsizlik Süresi,İşsiz,Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. Abraham, Katharine G.; Shimer, Robert (2001) “Changes In Unemployment Duration And Labor Force Attachment” NBER Working Paper No:8513,1-62.
2. Addison, John T.; Portugal, Pedro (1989), “Job Displacement, Relative Wage Changes, and Duration of Unemployment” Journal of Labor Economics, 7 (3),281-302.
3. Akaike, Hirotugu (1974), “A new look at the statistical model identification”, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19: 716–723.
4. Arulampalam, Wiji; Stewart Mark B. (1995), “The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment”, The Economics Journal, 105, 321-332.
5. Begum, Nasima (2004), “Characteristics of the short-term and long-term unemployed”, Labour Market Trends, 112(4), 139-144
6. Björklund, Anders (1978), “On the duration of unemployment in Sweden, 1965-1976”, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 421-439.
7. Bulut, Volkan (2011), “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Süresini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Yaşam Çözümlenmesi ile İncelenmesi”, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü İstatistik Anabilim Dalı
8. Dolton, Peter; Donal O’Neill (1995), “The Impact of Restart on Reservation Wages and Long-Term Unemployment” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57 (4) , 451-470.

9. Foley, Mark C. (1997), “Determinants Of Unemployment Duration In Russia”, Center Discussion Paper, No:779, 1-36
10. Ham, John C.; Rea Samuel A. (1987), “Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada”, Journal of Labor Economics, 5 (3), 325-353.
11. Haurin, Donald R.; Sridhar Kala S. (2003), “The Impact of Local Unemployment Rates On Reservation Wages and The Duration of Search For a Job”, Applied Economics, 35: 1469-1476.
12. Heath, Alexandra; Swann Troy (1999), “Reservation Wages and The Duration of Unemployment”, Economic Research Department Reserve Bank of Australia, Discussion Paper 1999-02.
13. Hunt, Jennifer (1995), “The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany” Journal of Labor Economics, 13 (1) , 88-120.
14. Jones, Stephen R. G. (1988), “The Relationship Between Unemployment Spells And Reservation Wages As A Test Of Search Theory”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 741-765.
15. Katchova, Anna L. (2013), “Survival Analysis”, Econometrics Academy Website: https://sites.google.com/site/econometricsacademy/, (Erişim: 10.12.2015).
16. Katz, Lawrence F.; Meyer Bruce D. (1988), “The Impact Of The Potential Duration Of Unemployment Benefits On The Duration Of Unemployment”, NBER Working Paper Series 2741, 1-45.
17. Kuhlenkasper, Torben; Steinhardt Max F. (2011), “Unemployment Duration in Germany- A comprehensive study with dynamic hazard models and P-Spliness”, Norface Migration Discussion Paper, 2011-18, 1-26.
18. Kupets, Olga (2006), "Determinants Of Unemployment Duration in Ukranie”, Economics Research and Outreach Center-Economics Education and Research Consortium, 1-36.
19. Lalive, Rafael (2008), “How do extended benefits affect unemployment duration? A regression discontinuity approach”, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 785-806.
20. Lancaster, Tony; Chesher Andrew (1983), “An Econometric Analysis of Reservation Wages”, Econometrica, 51(6): 1661-1676.
21. Lippman, Steven A.; McCall John J. (1976), “The economics of job search: A survey” Economic inquiry, 14(2), 155-189.
22. Machin, Stephen; Manning Alan (1998), “The Causes and Consequences of Long-term Unemployment in Europe”, (Ed. O. Ashenfelter ve D. Card), Handbook of Labour Economics, Volume 3C, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
23. Meyer, Bruce D. (1990), “Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells”, Econometrica, 58 (4) , 757-782.
24. Mortensen, Dale T. (1970), “Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve”, The American Economic Review, 60(5): 847-862
25. Roed, Knut; Zhang Tao (2003), “Does Unemployment Compensation Affect Unemployment Duration”, The Economic Journal, 113, 190-206.
26. Rogers, Cynthia L. (1997), “Job Search and Unemployment Duration: Implications fort he Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis”, Journal of Urban Economics, 42, 109-132.
27. Schwarz, Gideon (1978), “Estimating the dimension of a model”. Annals of Statistics 6: 461–464.
28. Tansel, Aysit; Taşçı H. Mehmet (2004), “Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Men and Women in Turkey”, IZA Discussion Paper No.1258, 1-39.
29. Tansel, Aysit; Taşçı H. Mehmet (2010), “Hazard Analysis Of Unemployment Duration By Gender In A Developing Country: The Case Of Turkey”, Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series No:521, 1-32.
30. Taşçı, H. Mehmet; Özdemir Ali Rıza (2006), “Trends in Long-Term Unemployment and Determinants of Incidence of Long-Term Unemployment in Turkey”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 7 (2) , 1-33.
31. Taşçı, H. Mehmet; Tansel Aysit (2005), “Youth unemployment duration in Turkey” METU Studies in Development, 32, 517-545.
32. Van den Berg, Gerard J.; van Ours Jan C. (1994), “Unemployment Dynamics And Duration Dependence In France, The Netherlands And The United Kingdom”, The Economic Journal, 104, 432-443.