Labor Force Participation Decision: Discrete Dependent Variable Panel Data Models

Yıl 2019, , 315 - 330, 30.08.2019

Canan Güneş

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.450826

Cited By: 1

Öz

The labor force participation is important for the growth and
development by increasing the economic activities. This study aims to
investigate the socioeconomic and demographic factors and the effects of 2008 financial crisis
influencing the labor force participation decisions of individuals in working
age using discrete dependent variable panel data models. For this purpose, the
2007-2010 Income and Living Conditions Survey Panel Data Set covering the 2008
crisis is used. Since women’s labor force participation rate in Turkey is low, separate
models are estimated for men and women enabling us to compare the results. According to the findings,
the probability of labor force participation is increasing in both women and men during the crisis. The increase in
labor force participation is due to the increase in unemployment in women and
employment and unemployment in men. Having a university degree is an important determinant
of women’s labor force participation and employment. While being married and
having a child decrease the probability of labor force participation for women,
increase the probability of labor force participation for men.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Labor Supply, Labor Force Participation, Discrete Dependent Variable Panel Data Models, Panel Logit Model, Panel Multinomial Logit Model

İşgücüne Katılım Kararı: Nitel Bağımlı Değişkenli Panel Veri Modelleri

Öz

İşgücüne
katılım, ekonomik faaliyetlerin arttırılıp büyüme ve kalkınmanın sağlanması
açısından önem taşımaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, çalışma çağında olan bireylerin
işgücüne katılım kararları üzerinde sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik etmenler ile
2008 finans krizinin yarattığı etkileri nitel bağımlı değişkenli panel veri
modelleriyle incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmada, 2008 krizini
kapsayan, 2007-2010 Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması Panel Veri Seti
kullanılmaktadır. Türkiye'de kadınların işgücüne katılımının düşük olması
nedeniyle kadın ve erkekler için ayrı modeller tahmin edilmekte ve karşılaştırma
yapılabilmesi sağlanmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, kriz döneminde hem
kadın hem de erkeklerde işgücüne katılma olasılığı artmaktadır. İşgücüne katılımdaki
artış, kadınlarda işsizliğin erkeklerde ise hem istihdam hem de işsizliğin
artması ile ortaya çıkmaktadır. Üniversite mezunu olmak, kadınların işgücüne
katılımlarında ve istihdamda olmalarında önemli bir belirleyicidir. Evlilik ve
hanede küçük çocuk olması kadınların işgücüne katılım olasılığını azaltırken,
erkeklerinkini arttırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşgücü arzı, İşgücüne Katılım, Nitel Bağımlı Değişkenli Panel Veri Modelleri, Panel Logit Model, Panel Multinomial Logit Model

Kaynakça

• Acar, Elif Öznur; Tansel, Aysıt (2016), “Defining and Measuring Informality: The Case of Turkish Labor Market”, Sosyoekonomi, Vol. 24(28): 147-174.
• Alcan, Deniz; Can, Raif; Pektaş, Betül (2015), “Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Hareketlilik: Mikro Veriye Dayalı Analiz”, Kalkınma Bakanlığı Ekonomi Çalışma Tebliğleri Serisi, No: 2015/1.
• Bahçe Kaya, Seçil; Memiş, Emel (2014), "The Uncounted Who Wish to Work-Distinct to the Unemployed or Similar?", Sosyoekonomi, Vol. 21(1): 305-333.
• Becker, Gary S. (1965), “A Theory of the Allocation of Time”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 75, No. 299: 493-517.
• Booth, Alison L.; Jenkins, Stephen P.; Serrano, Carlos Garcia (1999), “New Men and New Women? A Comparison of Paid Work Propensities from a Panel Data Perspective”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(2): 167-197.
• Butler, J. S.; Moffitt, Robert (1982), "A Computationally Quadrature for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model", Econometrica, Vol. 50, No. 3: 761-764.
• Cai, Lixin (2010), “Work Choices of Married Women: Drivers of Change”, Visiting Researcher Paper, Productivity Commission, Canberra.
• Croda, Enrica; Kyriazidou, Ekaterini; Polycarpou, Ioannis (2011), “Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women in Germany: A Panel Data Analysis”, Working Paper Department of Economics of the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, No:17.
• Frees, Edward W. (2004), Longitudinal and Panel Data: Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences, New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Greene, William H. (2012) LIMDEP Version 10 Econometric Reference Guide, New York: Econometric Software, Inc.
• Haan, Peter (2010), “A Multi-State Model of State Dependence in Labor Supply: Intertemporal Labor Supply Effects of a Shift from Joint to Individual Taxation”, Labor Economics, 17: 323-335.
• Haynes, Michele; Western, Mark; Yu, Laurel; Spallek, Melanie (2006), “Methods for Categorical Longitudinal Survey Data: Understanding Employment Status of Australian Women”, Methods for Longitudinal Surveys (MOLS2006) Conference, University of Essex, Colchester, United Kingdom, July 12-14, 2006. (pp. 1-25).
• Heckman, James J.; Willis, Robert J. (1977), “A Beta-Logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, Issue. 1: 27-58.
• Hill, R. Carter; Griffiths, William E.; Lim, Guay C. (2011), Principles of Econometrics, Fourth Edition, United States of America: John Wiley & Sons.
• Hyder, Asma; Behrman, Jere R. (2014), “Female Economic Activity in Rural Malawi”, J Dev Leadersh, 3(1): 1-10.
• Hyslop, Dean R. (1999), “State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women”, Econometrica, Vol. 67, No. 6: 1255-1294.
• İkizler, Hüseyin; Tunalı, İnsan (2012), “Agricultural Transformation and Labor Mobility During the ARIP Period in Turkey: Evidence From Micro-Data, 2000-2002”, Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series, No: 706.
• Keane, Michael P.; Sauer, Robert M. (2010), “A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Unobserved Endogenous State Variables”, International Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 4: 925-958.
• Lechmann, Daniel S. J.; Wunder, Christoph (2016), “The Dynamics of Solo Self-Employment: Persistence and Transition to Employership”, Labor and Socio-Economic Research Center Discussion Papers, No: 96.
• Nakamura, Alice; Nakamura, Masao (1985), “Dynamic Models of the Labor Force Behavior of Married Women Which can be Estimated Using Limited Amounts of Past Information”, Journal of Econometrics, 27: 273-298.
• Neyman, J.; Scott, Elizabeth L. (1948), “Consistent Estimates Based on Partially Consistent Observations”, Econometrica, Vol. 16, No. 1: 1-32.
• Özer, Mustafa; Biçerli, Kemal (2003), “Türkiye'de Kadın İşgücünün Panel Veri Analizi”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(1): 55-85.
• Prowse, Victoria (2012), “Modeling Employment Dynamics with State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity”, Journal of Business&Economic Statistics, Vol. 30, No. 3: 411-431.
• Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders (2012), Multilevel and Logitudinal Modeling Using Stata Volume II: Categorical Responses, Counts and Suvival, Third Edition, Texas: Stata Press.
• Selim, Sibel; Kırgel, H. Duygu; Çelik, Orkun; Yazıcıoğlu, Hakan (2014), “Türkiye'de İşsizliğin Sosyo-Ekonomik Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Cilt. 10, Sayı. 22: 1-25.
• Shiu, Ji-Liang; Hu, Yingyao (2013), “Identification and Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Unobserved Covariates”, Journal of Econometrics, 175(2013): 116-131.
• Tansel, Aysıt; Kan, Elif Öznur (2012), “Labor Mobility Across The Formal/Informal Divide in Turkey: Evidence from Individual Level Data”, ERC Working Papers in Economics, No:12/01.
• Taşçı, H. Mehmet; Tansel, Aysıt (2005a), “Unemployment and Transitions in the Turkish Labor Market: Evidence from Individual Level Data”, IZA Discussion Paper, No: 1663.
• Taşçı, H. Mehmet; Tansel, Aysıt (2005b), “Youth Unemployment Duration in Turkey”, METU Studies in Development, 32: 517-545.TÜSİAD; KAGİDER (2008), Türkiye’de Toplumsal Cinsiyet Eşitsizliği: Sorunlar, Öncelikler ve Çözüm Önerileri, İstanbul: Graphis Matbaa.
• Voicu, Aleaxandru (2005), "Employment Dynamics in the Romanian Labor Market. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach", Journal of Comparative Economics, 33(2005): 604-639.
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, Ferda (2012), Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı, İstanbul: Beta.