Kaldıraç ve Döngüsellik: Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2006 Ocak-2018 Ocak döneminde bankacılık sektöründe faaliyet gösteren bankaların kaldıraç yapısının döngüselliğini araştırmaktır. Döngüselliğin tespiti için, kaldıraç oranı ve aktif değişimi arasındaki ilişki regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir. Regresyon analizi tahminleri, aktif değişiminin kaldıraç oranı değişimini pozitif yönlü ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir şekilde etkilediğine işaret etmektedir. Bu sonuç, kaldıracın döngüsel olduğunu göstermektedir. Kaldıracın döngüselliği, banka varlıklarının büyüme gösterdiği dönemlerde, kaldıraç oranının artmasına ve finansal çevrimler ile kredi çevrimlerinin birbirini tetiklemesine sebep olabilmektedir. Bu şekilde, kaldıracın finansal hızlandırma mekanizma olmasından yola çıkılarak, finansal genişleme dönemlerinde döngüsel karşıtı bir politika belirlenmesi ile makro riskleri azaltabilen önlemler geliştirilebileceği söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kaldıraç Döngüselliği,Finansal Çevrimler,Kredi Çevrimleri,Finansal Hızlandırıcı Mekanizma

Leverage and Procyclicality: An Application on Banking Sector

Öz

The purpose of this study is to investigate the procyclicality of the leverage structure of the banks operated in banking sector in the term of 2006 January-2018 January. In order to determine the procyclicality, the relationship between the changes of leverage rate and asset was investigated by regression analysis. The estimations of the regression analysis indicate that the asset change affects the leverage rate change positive direction and statisticallly significant. This result shows that the leverage is procyclical. Leverage procylicality can cause increase in the leverage rate and trigger of the financial cycles and the credit cycles each other during periods when the banks assets grow. In this way, it can be said that by taking approach the leverage as a financial accelerator mechanism, with determined countercyclical policy during financial expansion periods, the precautions can be developed that can decrease macro risks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Leverage Procyclicality,Financial Cycles,Credit Cycles,Financial Accelerator Mechanism

Kaynakça

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