-

Öz

This study, unlike the previous studies dealing with Kaldor’s engine of economic growth hypotheses, provides an outline of Kaldor's growth model and tests its relevance to the economic experience of Turkey during the period 19632005 by using recent cointegration and causality tests. Kaldor's first law states that manufacturing is the engine of economic growth, whereas the second proposition, also known as Verdoorn's law, asserts that there is a strong positive casual relationship between manufacturing productivity growth and output growth, due to static and dynamic increasing returns to scale. Kaldor's third law purports that overall growth is positively correlated to employment growth in manufacturing output, and negatively correlated to employment in non-manufacturing sectors. The empirical results, regardless of the specification and estimation techniques employed, suggest that the models can partly explain the developments in the economy to a certain degree.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kaldor‘s Law, Industrial Sector, Employment, Productivity, Growth.

Kaldor Yasası Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Sanayi Sektörü ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisinin Sınanması

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Kaldor Yasasını tanıtarak bu yasanın Türkiye ekonomisi için ampirik geçerliliğini 1963-2005 dönemine ilişkin verilerle daha önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak güncel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik yöntemlerle sınamaktır. Kaldorun birinci yasası imalat sanayinin ekonomik büyümenin motoru olduğunu belirtirken; Verdoorn yasası olarakta bilinen ikinci yasası sanayi sektöründeki işgücü verimliliği ile üretim miktarı arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu ima etmektedir. Kaldor’un üçüncü yasası, sanayi sektöründe işgücü verimliliği ile üretim miktarı arasında pozitif, ancak sanayi sektörü dışındaki diğer sektörlerde işgücü verimliliği ile üretim miktarı ve istihdam hacmi arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğunu varsaymaktadır. Analiz sonuçları kısmen de olsa Kaldor Yasasını destekleyici bulgular sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kaldor Yasası, Sanayi Sektörü, İstihdam, Verimlilik, Büyüme.

Kaynakça

1. Ateşoğlu, H.S. (1993), "Manufacturing and Economic Growth in the United States", Applied Economics, 25, 67-69.
2. Bairam, E. (1987), “The Verdoorn law, returns to scale and industrial growth: a review of the literature”, Australian Economic Papers, June, 20–44.
3. Bairam, E. (1991), "Economic Growth and Kaldor’s Law: The Case of Turkey", Applied Economics, 23, 1277-1280.
4. Choi, Kwang. (1983) “Theories of Comparative Economic Growth”, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa
5. Cripps, T.F. and Roger J.Tarling (1973),”Growth in Advanced Capitalist Economies 1950–70”, Occasional Paper 40, Cambridge University Pres.
6. Diaz-Bautista, A. (2003), ”Mexico’s Industrial Engine of Growth: Cointegration and Causality” www.ejournal.unam.mx/momento_economico/no126/MOE12605.pdf (Erişim: 07.06.2007)
7. Drakopolous, S.A and I.T. Theododiou (1991) “Kaldorian Approach to Greek Economic Growth” Applied Economics, 23, 1683-1689.
8. Harris, R. I. D. and A. Liu (1999), “Verdoorn's Law and Increasing Returns to Scale: Country Estimates Based on the Cointegration Approach”, Applied Economics Letters, 6(1).

9. Johansen, S., R., Mosconi, and B. Nielsen (2000), “Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend”, Econometrics Journal, 3, 216–249.
10. Kaldor, N. (1966), Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth in the United Kingdom: An Inaugural Lecture (London: Cambridge University Press).
11. Kaldor, N. (1968), “Productivity and Growth in Manufacturing Industry: a reply”, Economica, 35, 385-391.
12. Kaldor, N. (1975), “Economic Growth and the Verdoorn Law – A Comment on Mr. Rowthorn’s Article”, Economic Journal, 85, 891–6.
13. Leybourne, S. and P. Newbold (2003), “Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks”, Applied Economics, 35(9).
14. Mamgain, V. (1999), “Are the Kaldor–Verdoorn Laws Applicable In The Newly Industrializing Countries”, Review of Development Economics, 3(3).
15. Mccombie, J.S.L. (1982), ”Economic Growth, Kaldor’s Laws And The StaticDynamic Verdoorn Law Paradox”, Applied Economics, 14, 279–94.