Çalışma Sermayesi ve Karlılık İlişkisinin Keşifsel Bir Araçla ANFIS İncelenmesi

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 285 - 308, 01.04.2016

Birol Yıldız Soner Akkoç

Öz

Literatürde çalışma sermayesi konusunda korelasyon ve regresyon gibi doğrusal analiz teknikleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen öncü araştırmada, çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık arasında ilişkinin negatif yönlü olduğu raporlanmıştır. Aslında çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olduğuna dair bulgular teoriyle ters düşmektedir. Çünkü finans teorisine göre çalışma sermayesinin azlığı işletmenin faaliyetlerini aksatacak ve kârlılığı olumsuz etkileyecektir. Ancak çalışma sermayesinin fazlalığı da kaynakların atıl kalması nedeniyle, kârlılığı azaltmaktadır. Nitekim özellikle son zamanlardaki yayınlarda çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık ilişkisinin doğrusal olmadığı ve bir optimal çalışma sermayesi büyüklüğü bulunduğu yönünde önemli bulgular raporlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık arasındaki ilişki Uyarlanabilir Sinirsel Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System – ANFIS ile modellenerek, görsel bir şekilde gün yüzüne çıkartılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, çalışma sermayesi ve kârlılık ilişkisinin doğrusal olmadığını göstermektedir. Çalışmada veri seti olarak Borsa İstanbul’da 2000-2013 yılları arasında işlem gören işletmeler yer almaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çalışma Sermayesi, Karlılık, Sinirsel Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi, ANFIS, Borsa Istanbul

Explore Working Capital – Profitability Relation with a Non-Linear Tool ANFIS

Öz

The pioneering research on working capital were carried out using techniques such as correlation and linear regression analysis and many of these research studies have reported that there is a negative relationship between working capital and profitability. In fact, studies search for a linear relationship between working capital and profitability, contradicts the theory. Because according to financial theory, lack of working capital is hampering the operations of the business. Therefore, profitability is reduced. However, again according to the theory, in excess of working capital due to remain idle resources it will adversely affect profitability. Indeed, recent publications on the relationship between working capital and profitability is reported that there is a non-linear relationship and indicates the optimal size of working capital. This research study aims to explore the relationship instead of looking for a linear relationship between capital and profitability. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for the Detection ANFIS is used. Results are non-linear relationship of working capital and profitability reveals. The study used a data set of enterprises listed at the stock exchange in Borsa Istanbul between the years 2000-2013.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Working capital, profitability, Neuro

Kaynakça

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