Türkiye İçin Ricardocu Denkliğin Ekonometrik Testi

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 7 - 28, 01.12.2015

Hüseyin Ağır Ayşe Zabun

Öz

Ricardocu Denklik Hipotezi RDH , kamu harcamaları sonucunda ortaya çıkan bütçe açıklarının finansmanında, borçlanma ya da vergileme yolunun seçilmesinin özel kesimin harcamaları üzerinde bir etkisinin olmayacağını, tüketim- tasarruf- yatırım- faiz ve cari işlemler hesabının da bundan etkilenmeyeceğini ileri sürektedir. Bu çalışma eş bütünleşmeye dayalı FMOLS yöntemiyle Türkiye Ekonomisi üzerine 1975-2013 dönemi yıllık verilerini kullanarak RDH’yi test etmektedir. Buna göre, Türkiye Ekonomisi için RDH geçerli değildir ve hükümet tüketimi özel tüketimi ikame etmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ricardocu Denklik Hipotezi, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Eşbütünleşme, FMOLS, Wald Testi

An Econometric Test of Ricardian Equivalance For Turkey

Öz

asserts that whether a goverment finances its spending with debt or a tax way has no effect on total level of expenditure of private sector, and consumption, savings, investment, interest rates, the current account will not be affected in financing the budget deficit resulted from public spending. This study aims to test validity of REH for the Turkish Economy with annual data of 1975-2013 period by using FMOLS method based on co-integration analysis. The results show that REH doesn’t apply for Turkish Economy and government consumption substitutes private consumption

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Ricardian Equivalance Hypothesis, Turkish Economy, Cointegration, FMOLS, Wald Test

Kaynakça

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