Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Gelirleri: Public Expenditures and Revenues in Turkey: An Nedensellik İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 129 - 146, 01.10.2010

Anıl Akçağlayan Meltem Kayıran

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Hata düzeltme modeli ve Toda‐Yamamoto yöntemleri kullanıla‐ rak yapılan çalışmada, 1987:1 ve 2005:04 arasın‐ daki dönemde kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelir‐ leri arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olmasına rağmen, nedensellik olmadığı sonucuna ulaşıl‐ mıştır. Bu sonuç, kamu harcamaların kısılması ve/veya vergilerin artırılmasının bütçe açıklarını azaltmada etkili olabileceğini ifade etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bütçe açıkları, kamu harca‐ maları‐kamu gelirleri, Granger nedensellik, eşbütünleşme.

Public Expenditures and Revenues in Turkey: An Investigation on Causality

Öz

This paper investigates the evidence for cointegration government revenue and expenditure for Turkey over the period 1987:01‐2005:04. The results from Yamamoto method suggest that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in either direction. This finding supports the idea that either reducing expenditures or raising taxes can decrease the budget deficit in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Budget deficits, public expenditures‐ public revenues, Granger causality, cointegration.

Kaynakça

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