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Teknik Analizin Popülaritesi, Hisse Senedi Piyasası Yatırımcıları Arasında Düşük Finansal Okuryazarlığın ve Aşırı Güvenin Bir Ürünü mü?

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 1, 146 - 169, 01.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.991524

Öz

Komisyon giderleri, içeriden öğrenenlerin ticareti, spreadler ve kurumsal yatırımcıların yüksek frekanslı algoritmaları gibi faktörler nedeniyle işlem sıklığının artmasıyla bireysel yatırımcıların hisse senedi piyasalarındaki toplam getirisi azalmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, teknik analiz yöntemine inanma ile yatırımcıların finansal okuryazarlık düzeyi, aşırı güven ve yüksek getiri beklentileri arasındaki ilişki 3.844 kişiye ait anket verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Yüksek frekanslı işlemlerde teknik analizin etkinliği ve başarısı, yatırımcının analitik becerilerine bağlı olsa da; teknik analiz ve ticaretin, finansal okuryazarlığı düşük ve irrasyonel yüksek getiri beklentileri olan kişiler arasında oldukça popüler olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Almenberg, J.; Dreber, A. (2015), “Gender, Stock Market Participation and Financial Literacy”, Economics Letters, Vol.137: 140-142.
  • Anwar, M.; Khan, S. Z.; Rehman, A. U. (2017), “Financial Literacy, Behavioral Biases and Investor’s Portfolio Diversification: Empirical Study of an Emerging Stock Market”, Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Vol.2, No.2:144-163.
  • Arora, S.; Marwaha, K. (2013), “Financial Literacy Level and Awareness Regarding Stock Market: An Empirical Study of Individual Stock Investors of Punjab”. Management and Labour Studies, Vol.38, No.3: 241-253.
  • Balloch, A.; Nicolae, A.; Philip, D. (2015), “Stock Market Literacy, Trust, and Participation”, Review of Finance, Vol.19, No.5: 1925-1963.
  • Barber, B. M.; Odean, T. (2001), “Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.116, No.1: 261-292.
  • Bettman, J. L.; Sault, S. J.; Schultz, E. L. (2009), “Fundamental and Technical Analysis: Substitutes or Complements?”, Accounting & Finance, Vol.49, No.1: 21-36.
  • Brown, D. P.; Jennings, R. H. (1989), “On Technical Analysis”, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol.2, No.4: 527-551.
  • Chu, Z.; Wang, Z.; Xiao, J. J.; Zhang, W. (2017), “Financial Literacy, Portfolio Choice and Financial Well-Being”, Social Indicators Research, Vol.132, No.2: 799-820.
  • Chuang, W. I.; Lee, B. S. (2006), “An Empirical Evaluation of the Overconfidence Hypothesis”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol.30, No.9: 2489-2515.
  • De Bondt, W. F.; Thaler, R. (1985), “Does the Stock Market Overreact?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol.40, No.3: 793-805.
  • Dodd, D.; Graham, B. (1934), “Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition”, (McGraw-Hill, New York).
  • Dorn, D.; Sengmueller, P. (2009), “Trading as Entertainment?”, Management Science, Vol.55, No.4: 591-603.
  • Dourra, H.; Siy, P. (2002), “Investment Using Technical Analysis and Fuzzy Logic”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems; Vol.127, No.2: 221-240.
  • Gerritsen, D. F. (2016), “Are Chartists Artists? The Determinants and Profitability of Recommendations Based on Technical Analysis”, International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol.47: 179-196.
  • Glaser, M.; Weber, M. (2007), “Overconfidence and Trading Volume”, The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Vol.32, No.1: 1-36.
  • Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R.; Huang, H. (2009), “Investor Competence, Trading Frequency, and Home Bias”, Management Science, Vol.55, No.7: 1094-1106.
  • Greig, A. C. (1992), “Fundamental Analysis and Subsequent Stock Returns”; Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.15, No.2-3: 413-442.
  • Harter, C.; Harter, J. F. (2010), “Is Financial Literacy Improved by Participating in a Stock Market Game?”, Journal for Economic Educators, Vol.10, No.1: 21-32.
  • Hoffmann, A. O.; Shefrin, H. (2014), “Technical Analysis and Individual Investors”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol.107: 487-511.
  • Hoffmann, A. O.; Post, T. (2016), “How Does Investor Confidence Lead To Trading? Linking Investor Return Experiences, Confidence, and Investment Beliefs”. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Vol.12: 65-78.
  • Hsu, Y.; Shiu, C. Y. (2010), “The Overconfidence of Investors in The Primary Market”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.18, No.2: 217-239.
  • Jiang, J.; Liao, L.; Wang, Z.; Xiang, H. (2020), “Financial Literacy and Retail İnvestors' Financial Welfare: Evidence From Mutual Fund Investment Outcomes in China”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.59: 101242.
  • Kansal, P.; Singh, S. (2018), “Determinants of Overconfidence Bias in Indian Stock Market”, Qualitative Research in Financial Markets. Vol.10, No.4: 381-394.
  • Klapper, L.; Lusardi, A. (2020), “Financial Literacy and Financial Resilience: Evidence from around the World”, Financial Management, Vol.49, No.3: 589-614.
  • Kubińska, E.; Czupryna, M.; Markiewicz, Ł.; Czekaj, J. (2018), “Technical Analysis Gives You Courage, But Not Money-on the Relationship between Technical Analysis Usage, Overconfidence and Investment Performance”, Argumenta Oeconomica, Vol.1, No.40: 317-343.
  • Kumar, A. (2009), “Who Gambles in the Stock Market?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol.64, No.4: 1889-1933.
  • Lewellen, W. G.; Lease, R. C.; Schlarbaum, G. G. (1980), “Portfolio Design and Portfolio Performance: The Individual Investor”, Journal of Economics and Business. Vol.32, No.3: 185–197.
  • Li, J.; Li, Q.; Wei, X. (2020), “Financial Literacy, Household Portfolio Choice and Investment Return”. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 101370.
  • Lusardi, A.; Mitchell, O. S. (2014), “The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.52, No.1: 5-44.
  • MKK (2021). “Borsa Trendleri Raporu (Ocak-Aralık 2020)”, obtained from: https://www.mkk.com.tr/tr-tr/Veri-Depolama-Hizmetleri/Documents/Borsa-Trendleri-Raporu-Ocak-Aral%c4%b1k-2020.pdf
  • Mouna, A.; Jarboui, A. (2015). “Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification: an Observation from the Tunisian Stock Market”, International Journal of Bank Marketing, Vol.33, No.6: 808-822.
  • Munir, I. U.; Yue, S.; Ijaz, M. S.; Hussain, S.; Zaidi, S. Y. (2020), “Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation: Does Gender Matter?”, The Singapore Economic Review, 1-20.
  • Neely, C.J. (1997), “Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market: a Layman’s Guide in: Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis”, Working Paper 2011-001B, 23–38.
  • Odean, T. (1998), “Volume, volatility, price, and profit when all traders are above average”, The Journal of Finance, Vol.53, No.6: 1887-1934.
  • Odean, T.; B. Barber. (2000), “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors”, Journal of Finance, No.55, Vol.2: 773-806.
  • Park, C. H.; Irwin, S. H. (2007), “What do We Know About the Profitability of Technical analysis?”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol.21, No.4: 786-826.
  • Sivaramakrishnan, S.; Srivastava, M.; Rastogi, A. (2017), “Attitudinal Factors, Financial Literacy, and Stock Market Participation”, International Journal of Bank Marketing, Vol.35, No.5: 818-841.
  • Statman, M. (2002). “Lottery Players/Stock Traders”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol.58, No.1: 14-21.
  • Statmen, M.; Thorley, S.; Vorkink, K. (2006), “Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume”, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol.19, No.4: 1531–1565.
  • Thomas, A.; Spataro, L. (2015), “Financial Literacy, Human Capital and Stock Market Participation in Europe: An Empirical Exercise Under Endogenous Framework”, Dipartimento di Economia e Management–Università di Pisa Discussion Paper, Gennaio, 194.
  • TSPB (2020), “Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2019”, obtained from: https://www.tspb.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TurkiyeSermayePiyasasi2019r.pdf#page=48
  • Van Rooij, M.; Lusardi, A.; Alessie, R. (2011), “Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.101, No.2: 449-472. Vanhaverbeke, F. (2014), “Excess Returns: A Comparative Study Of The World's Greatest İnvestors”, Harriman House Limited.
  • Vieira, K. M., Potrich, A. C. G.; Bressan, A. A. (2020), “A Proposal of A Financial Knowledge Scale Based On Item Response Theory”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Vol.28: 100405.
  • Volpe, R. P.; Kotel, J. E.; Chen, H. (2002), “A Survey of Investment Literacy Among Online Investors”, Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, Vol.13, No.1: 1-16.
  • Wafi, A. S.; Hassan, H.; Mabrouk, A. (2015), “Fundamental Analysis Models in Financial Markets–Review Study”, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol.30: 939-947.
  • Xia, T.; Wang, Z., & Li, K. (2014), “Financial literacy overconfidence and stock market participation”. Social Indicators Research, Vol.119, No.3: 1233-1245.

Is Popularity of Technical Analysis a Product of Low Financial Literacy and Overconfidence Among Stock Market Investors?

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 1, 146 - 169, 01.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.991524

Öz

Individual investors’ overall return in stock markets decreases with the increase in trade frequency due to factors such as commission expenses, insider trading, spreads, and institutional investors’ high-frequency algorithms. In this study, the relationship between believing the technical analysis method and the financial literacy level, overconfidence, and high return expectations of investors have been analyzed with the use of survey data of 3,844 people. Although the efficiency of technical analysis and success in high-frequency trading depends on investor’s analytical skills, it is found that technical analysis and trading are very popular among people who have low financial literacy and irrational high return expectations.

Kaynakça

  • Almenberg, J.; Dreber, A. (2015), “Gender, Stock Market Participation and Financial Literacy”, Economics Letters, Vol.137: 140-142.
  • Anwar, M.; Khan, S. Z.; Rehman, A. U. (2017), “Financial Literacy, Behavioral Biases and Investor’s Portfolio Diversification: Empirical Study of an Emerging Stock Market”, Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Vol.2, No.2:144-163.
  • Arora, S.; Marwaha, K. (2013), “Financial Literacy Level and Awareness Regarding Stock Market: An Empirical Study of Individual Stock Investors of Punjab”. Management and Labour Studies, Vol.38, No.3: 241-253.
  • Balloch, A.; Nicolae, A.; Philip, D. (2015), “Stock Market Literacy, Trust, and Participation”, Review of Finance, Vol.19, No.5: 1925-1963.
  • Barber, B. M.; Odean, T. (2001), “Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.116, No.1: 261-292.
  • Bettman, J. L.; Sault, S. J.; Schultz, E. L. (2009), “Fundamental and Technical Analysis: Substitutes or Complements?”, Accounting & Finance, Vol.49, No.1: 21-36.
  • Brown, D. P.; Jennings, R. H. (1989), “On Technical Analysis”, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol.2, No.4: 527-551.
  • Chu, Z.; Wang, Z.; Xiao, J. J.; Zhang, W. (2017), “Financial Literacy, Portfolio Choice and Financial Well-Being”, Social Indicators Research, Vol.132, No.2: 799-820.
  • Chuang, W. I.; Lee, B. S. (2006), “An Empirical Evaluation of the Overconfidence Hypothesis”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol.30, No.9: 2489-2515.
  • De Bondt, W. F.; Thaler, R. (1985), “Does the Stock Market Overreact?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol.40, No.3: 793-805.
  • Dodd, D.; Graham, B. (1934), “Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition”, (McGraw-Hill, New York).
  • Dorn, D.; Sengmueller, P. (2009), “Trading as Entertainment?”, Management Science, Vol.55, No.4: 591-603.
  • Dourra, H.; Siy, P. (2002), “Investment Using Technical Analysis and Fuzzy Logic”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems; Vol.127, No.2: 221-240.
  • Gerritsen, D. F. (2016), “Are Chartists Artists? The Determinants and Profitability of Recommendations Based on Technical Analysis”, International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol.47: 179-196.
  • Glaser, M.; Weber, M. (2007), “Overconfidence and Trading Volume”, The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Vol.32, No.1: 1-36.
  • Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R.; Huang, H. (2009), “Investor Competence, Trading Frequency, and Home Bias”, Management Science, Vol.55, No.7: 1094-1106.
  • Greig, A. C. (1992), “Fundamental Analysis and Subsequent Stock Returns”; Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.15, No.2-3: 413-442.
  • Harter, C.; Harter, J. F. (2010), “Is Financial Literacy Improved by Participating in a Stock Market Game?”, Journal for Economic Educators, Vol.10, No.1: 21-32.
  • Hoffmann, A. O.; Shefrin, H. (2014), “Technical Analysis and Individual Investors”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol.107: 487-511.
  • Hoffmann, A. O.; Post, T. (2016), “How Does Investor Confidence Lead To Trading? Linking Investor Return Experiences, Confidence, and Investment Beliefs”. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Vol.12: 65-78.
  • Hsu, Y.; Shiu, C. Y. (2010), “The Overconfidence of Investors in The Primary Market”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.18, No.2: 217-239.
  • Jiang, J.; Liao, L.; Wang, Z.; Xiang, H. (2020), “Financial Literacy and Retail İnvestors' Financial Welfare: Evidence From Mutual Fund Investment Outcomes in China”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.59: 101242.
  • Kansal, P.; Singh, S. (2018), “Determinants of Overconfidence Bias in Indian Stock Market”, Qualitative Research in Financial Markets. Vol.10, No.4: 381-394.
  • Klapper, L.; Lusardi, A. (2020), “Financial Literacy and Financial Resilience: Evidence from around the World”, Financial Management, Vol.49, No.3: 589-614.
  • Kubińska, E.; Czupryna, M.; Markiewicz, Ł.; Czekaj, J. (2018), “Technical Analysis Gives You Courage, But Not Money-on the Relationship between Technical Analysis Usage, Overconfidence and Investment Performance”, Argumenta Oeconomica, Vol.1, No.40: 317-343.
  • Kumar, A. (2009), “Who Gambles in the Stock Market?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol.64, No.4: 1889-1933.
  • Lewellen, W. G.; Lease, R. C.; Schlarbaum, G. G. (1980), “Portfolio Design and Portfolio Performance: The Individual Investor”, Journal of Economics and Business. Vol.32, No.3: 185–197.
  • Li, J.; Li, Q.; Wei, X. (2020), “Financial Literacy, Household Portfolio Choice and Investment Return”. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 101370.
  • Lusardi, A.; Mitchell, O. S. (2014), “The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.52, No.1: 5-44.
  • MKK (2021). “Borsa Trendleri Raporu (Ocak-Aralık 2020)”, obtained from: https://www.mkk.com.tr/tr-tr/Veri-Depolama-Hizmetleri/Documents/Borsa-Trendleri-Raporu-Ocak-Aral%c4%b1k-2020.pdf
  • Mouna, A.; Jarboui, A. (2015). “Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification: an Observation from the Tunisian Stock Market”, International Journal of Bank Marketing, Vol.33, No.6: 808-822.
  • Munir, I. U.; Yue, S.; Ijaz, M. S.; Hussain, S.; Zaidi, S. Y. (2020), “Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation: Does Gender Matter?”, The Singapore Economic Review, 1-20.
  • Neely, C.J. (1997), “Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market: a Layman’s Guide in: Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis”, Working Paper 2011-001B, 23–38.
  • Odean, T. (1998), “Volume, volatility, price, and profit when all traders are above average”, The Journal of Finance, Vol.53, No.6: 1887-1934.
  • Odean, T.; B. Barber. (2000), “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors”, Journal of Finance, No.55, Vol.2: 773-806.
  • Park, C. H.; Irwin, S. H. (2007), “What do We Know About the Profitability of Technical analysis?”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol.21, No.4: 786-826.
  • Sivaramakrishnan, S.; Srivastava, M.; Rastogi, A. (2017), “Attitudinal Factors, Financial Literacy, and Stock Market Participation”, International Journal of Bank Marketing, Vol.35, No.5: 818-841.
  • Statman, M. (2002). “Lottery Players/Stock Traders”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol.58, No.1: 14-21.
  • Statmen, M.; Thorley, S.; Vorkink, K. (2006), “Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume”, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol.19, No.4: 1531–1565.
  • Thomas, A.; Spataro, L. (2015), “Financial Literacy, Human Capital and Stock Market Participation in Europe: An Empirical Exercise Under Endogenous Framework”, Dipartimento di Economia e Management–Università di Pisa Discussion Paper, Gennaio, 194.
  • TSPB (2020), “Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2019”, obtained from: https://www.tspb.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TurkiyeSermayePiyasasi2019r.pdf#page=48
  • Van Rooij, M.; Lusardi, A.; Alessie, R. (2011), “Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.101, No.2: 449-472. Vanhaverbeke, F. (2014), “Excess Returns: A Comparative Study Of The World's Greatest İnvestors”, Harriman House Limited.
  • Vieira, K. M., Potrich, A. C. G.; Bressan, A. A. (2020), “A Proposal of A Financial Knowledge Scale Based On Item Response Theory”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Vol.28: 100405.
  • Volpe, R. P.; Kotel, J. E.; Chen, H. (2002), “A Survey of Investment Literacy Among Online Investors”, Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, Vol.13, No.1: 1-16.
  • Wafi, A. S.; Hassan, H.; Mabrouk, A. (2015), “Fundamental Analysis Models in Financial Markets–Review Study”, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol.30: 939-947.
  • Xia, T.; Wang, Z., & Li, K. (2014), “Financial literacy overconfidence and stock market participation”. Social Indicators Research, Vol.119, No.3: 1233-1245.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Serkan UNAL (Sorumlu Yazar)
UFUK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0002-7060-979X
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Nisan 2022
Başvuru Tarihi 5 Eylül 2021
Kabul Tarihi 16 Ekim 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Unal, S. (2022). Is Popularity of Technical Analysis a Product of Low Financial Literacy and Overconfidence Among Stock Market Investors? . Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi , 17 (1) , 146-169 . DOI: 10.17153/oguiibf.991524