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Savunma Harcamalarının Kamu Borcu, Bütçe Açığı ve Cari Açık Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerden Bulgular

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 3, 686 - 701, 01.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1086651

Öz

Kamu harcamaları içinde önemli bir paya sahip olan savunma harcamalarının çeşitli makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin çok sayıda çalışma olmasına rağmen, kamu borcu, bütçe açığı ve cari işlemler açığı üzerindeki etkilerine ilişkin çok az çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 2000-2019 dönemi için 16 gelişmiş ve 9 gelişmekte olan ülkeden yıllık veriler kullanılarak sistem GMM analiziyle, savunma harcamalarının kamu borcu, bütçe açığı ve cari işlemler açığı üzerindeki etkisi ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları, savunma harcamalarının kamu borcunu, bütçe açığını ve cari işlemler açığını belirlemede önemli bir faktör olduğunu göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmed, A. D. (2012), “Debt Burden, Military Spending and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 23, No.5: 485-506.
  • Alozious, J. (2015), “Fiscal Policies and Current Account Dynamics in OECD Countries: Do Military Expenditures Matter?” Master’s Thesis, Lund University.
  • Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991), “Some Tests Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, No. 2: 277-297.
  • Asteriou, D., & Hall, S. G. (2011), Applied Econometrics. Macmillan Education, Palgrave: Third Edition.
  • Azam, M., & Feng, Y. (2015), “Does Military Expenditure Increase External Debt? Evidence from Asia”. Defence and Peace Economics, doi:10.1080/10242694.2015.1072371
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, England: Third Edition.
  • Brzoska, M. (1983), “Research Communication: The Military Related External Debt of Third World Countries.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 20, No. 3: 271-277.
  • Canbay, Ş., & Mercan, D. (2017), “Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cari İşlemler Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, Vol. 2, No. 2: 86-104.
  • Caruso, R., & Di Domizio, M. (2016), “Military Spending and Budget Deficits: The impact of US Military Spending on Public Debt in Europe (1988–2013).” Defence and Peace Economics, doi: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1228259
  • Çayın, M., & Yapraklı, S. (2018), “Defence Expenditures, Economic Growth and Current Account Deficit: Analysis of Causality on Turkey.” In Emprical Studies on Growth, edited by Gökhan Karhan, Mücahit Çayın, Yunus Aşçı, Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Dunne, J. P., Perlo-Freeman, S., & Soydan, A. (2004a), “Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialised Economies: A Panel Analysis.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 125-132.
  • Dunne, J. P., Perlo-Freeman, S., & Soydan, A. (2004b), “Military Expenditure and Debt in South America.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 173-187.
  • Ertekin, Ş. (2020), "Savunma Harcamalarının Bütçe Açıkları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi.” Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 41: 460-474.
  • Esener, S. C., & Ipek, E. (2015), “Expanding Effects of Military Expenditures on External Debt in Developing Countries.” Journal of Business Economics and Finance, Vol. 4, No. 4: 617-632.
  • Frederiksen, P. C., & Looney, R. E. (1994), “Budgetary Consequences of Defence Expenditures in Pakistan: Short-Run Impacts and Long-Run Adjustments.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 31, No. 1: 11-18.
  • Froyen, R. T. (1995), Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies. Prentice Hall: Fifth Edition, London.
  • Gül, E., & Torusdağ, M. (2020), “Savunma Harcamaları Cari Açık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, Vol. 9, No. 3.
  • Günlük-Şenesen, G., & Sezgin, S. (2002), “Turkey’s Defence Expenditures and Debt Burden.” Paper presented at the 6th Middlesex Conference on Economics and Security, London, June 2002.
  • Günlük-Şenesen, G. (2004), “The Role of Defence on External Indebtedness: An Assessment of Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 145-156.
  • Ipek, E. (2014), “Savunma Harcamalarının Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı.” Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol. 14, No. 3.
  • IMF World Economic Outlook (accessed March 17, 2021).
  • Karagöl, E. (2006), “The Relationship between External Debt, Defence Expenditures and GNP Revisited: The Case of Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 17, No. 1: 47-57.
  • Karagöz, K. (2018), “Impact of Defence Expenditures on External Debt: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey and Turkic Republics.” Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1: 183-192.
  • Karakurt, B., Şentürk, S. H., & Şahingöz, B. (2020), “Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları, Silah İthalatı ve Dış Borçlar Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı.” International Journal of Public Finance, Vol. 5, No. 2: 273-294.
  • Khan, L., Arif, I., & Waqar, S. (2021), “The Impact of Military Expenditure on External Debt: The Case of 35 Arms Importing Countries.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 32, No. 5: 588-599.
  • Kollias, C., Manolas, G., & Paleologouc, S. M. (2004), “Military Expenditure and Government Debt in Greece: Some preliminary empirical findings.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 189-197.
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2003), Macroeconomics. Worth Publishers, New York: Fifth Edition.
  • Muhanji, S., & Ojah, K. (2014), “External Debt and Military Spending: The Case of Africa’s Conflict Countries.” MPRA Paper, No. 56077.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2008), “Does Military Expenditure Determine Fiji’s Exploding Debt Levels?” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 19, No. 1: 77-87.
  • Özsoy, O. (2008), “Government Budget Deficits, Defence Expenditure and Income Distribution: The Case of Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 19, No. 1: 61-75.
  • Samadi, A. H., & Behboodi, M. (2013), “An Investigation into The Relationship between Government Budget Deficits, Defence Expenditure and Transfer Payments in Iran.” Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking, Vol. 1, No. 1.
  • Sezgin, S. (2004), “An Empirical Note on External Debt and Defence Expenditures in Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 199-203.
  • Shahbaz, M., Shabbir, M. S., & Butt, M. S. (2016). “Does Military Spending Explode External Debt in Pakistan?” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 27, No. 5: 718-741.
  • Smyth, R., & Narayan, P. K. (2009), “A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence Six Middle Eastern Countries.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 46, No. 2: 235-250.
  • Şit, M. (2018),” Macroeconomic Effects of Defence Expenditures in Turkey.” Savunma Bilimleri Dergisi, Vol. 17, No. 2: 93-114.
  • Wolde‐Rufael, Y. (2009), “The Defence Spending – External Debt Nexus in Ethiopia.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 20, No. 5: 423-436.

The Impact of Defence Expenditures on Government Debt, Budget Deficit, and Current Account Deficit: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 3, 686 - 701, 01.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1086651

Öz

Although there are many studies on the effect of defence expenditures, which have a significant share in government expenditures, on various macroeconomic variables, there are very few studies on their effects on government debt, budget deficit and current account deficit. In this paper, the effect of defence expenditures on government debt, budget deficit, and current account deficit is empirically analyzed by system GMM analysis employing annual data from 16 developed and 9 developing countries for the period 2000-2019. The findings of the paper show that defence expenditures are important factor to determine government debt, budget deficit and current account deficit.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmed, A. D. (2012), “Debt Burden, Military Spending and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 23, No.5: 485-506.
  • Alozious, J. (2015), “Fiscal Policies and Current Account Dynamics in OECD Countries: Do Military Expenditures Matter?” Master’s Thesis, Lund University.
  • Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991), “Some Tests Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, No. 2: 277-297.
  • Asteriou, D., & Hall, S. G. (2011), Applied Econometrics. Macmillan Education, Palgrave: Third Edition.
  • Azam, M., & Feng, Y. (2015), “Does Military Expenditure Increase External Debt? Evidence from Asia”. Defence and Peace Economics, doi:10.1080/10242694.2015.1072371
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, England: Third Edition.
  • Brzoska, M. (1983), “Research Communication: The Military Related External Debt of Third World Countries.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 20, No. 3: 271-277.
  • Canbay, Ş., & Mercan, D. (2017), “Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cari İşlemler Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, Vol. 2, No. 2: 86-104.
  • Caruso, R., & Di Domizio, M. (2016), “Military Spending and Budget Deficits: The impact of US Military Spending on Public Debt in Europe (1988–2013).” Defence and Peace Economics, doi: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1228259
  • Çayın, M., & Yapraklı, S. (2018), “Defence Expenditures, Economic Growth and Current Account Deficit: Analysis of Causality on Turkey.” In Emprical Studies on Growth, edited by Gökhan Karhan, Mücahit Çayın, Yunus Aşçı, Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Dunne, J. P., Perlo-Freeman, S., & Soydan, A. (2004a), “Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialised Economies: A Panel Analysis.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 125-132.
  • Dunne, J. P., Perlo-Freeman, S., & Soydan, A. (2004b), “Military Expenditure and Debt in South America.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 173-187.
  • Ertekin, Ş. (2020), "Savunma Harcamalarının Bütçe Açıkları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi.” Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 41: 460-474.
  • Esener, S. C., & Ipek, E. (2015), “Expanding Effects of Military Expenditures on External Debt in Developing Countries.” Journal of Business Economics and Finance, Vol. 4, No. 4: 617-632.
  • Frederiksen, P. C., & Looney, R. E. (1994), “Budgetary Consequences of Defence Expenditures in Pakistan: Short-Run Impacts and Long-Run Adjustments.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 31, No. 1: 11-18.
  • Froyen, R. T. (1995), Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies. Prentice Hall: Fifth Edition, London.
  • Gül, E., & Torusdağ, M. (2020), “Savunma Harcamaları Cari Açık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, Vol. 9, No. 3.
  • Günlük-Şenesen, G., & Sezgin, S. (2002), “Turkey’s Defence Expenditures and Debt Burden.” Paper presented at the 6th Middlesex Conference on Economics and Security, London, June 2002.
  • Günlük-Şenesen, G. (2004), “The Role of Defence on External Indebtedness: An Assessment of Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 145-156.
  • Ipek, E. (2014), “Savunma Harcamalarının Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı.” Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol. 14, No. 3.
  • IMF World Economic Outlook (accessed March 17, 2021).
  • Karagöl, E. (2006), “The Relationship between External Debt, Defence Expenditures and GNP Revisited: The Case of Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 17, No. 1: 47-57.
  • Karagöz, K. (2018), “Impact of Defence Expenditures on External Debt: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey and Turkic Republics.” Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1: 183-192.
  • Karakurt, B., Şentürk, S. H., & Şahingöz, B. (2020), “Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları, Silah İthalatı ve Dış Borçlar Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı.” International Journal of Public Finance, Vol. 5, No. 2: 273-294.
  • Khan, L., Arif, I., & Waqar, S. (2021), “The Impact of Military Expenditure on External Debt: The Case of 35 Arms Importing Countries.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 32, No. 5: 588-599.
  • Kollias, C., Manolas, G., & Paleologouc, S. M. (2004), “Military Expenditure and Government Debt in Greece: Some preliminary empirical findings.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 189-197.
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2003), Macroeconomics. Worth Publishers, New York: Fifth Edition.
  • Muhanji, S., & Ojah, K. (2014), “External Debt and Military Spending: The Case of Africa’s Conflict Countries.” MPRA Paper, No. 56077.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2008), “Does Military Expenditure Determine Fiji’s Exploding Debt Levels?” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 19, No. 1: 77-87.
  • Özsoy, O. (2008), “Government Budget Deficits, Defence Expenditure and Income Distribution: The Case of Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 19, No. 1: 61-75.
  • Samadi, A. H., & Behboodi, M. (2013), “An Investigation into The Relationship between Government Budget Deficits, Defence Expenditure and Transfer Payments in Iran.” Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking, Vol. 1, No. 1.
  • Sezgin, S. (2004), “An Empirical Note on External Debt and Defence Expenditures in Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2: 199-203.
  • Shahbaz, M., Shabbir, M. S., & Butt, M. S. (2016). “Does Military Spending Explode External Debt in Pakistan?” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 27, No. 5: 718-741.
  • Smyth, R., & Narayan, P. K. (2009), “A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence Six Middle Eastern Countries.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 46, No. 2: 235-250.
  • Şit, M. (2018),” Macroeconomic Effects of Defence Expenditures in Turkey.” Savunma Bilimleri Dergisi, Vol. 17, No. 2: 93-114.
  • Wolde‐Rufael, Y. (2009), “The Defence Spending – External Debt Nexus in Ethiopia.” Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 20, No. 5: 423-436.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ayşegül DURUCAN> (Sorumlu Yazar)
KIRIKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0001-8424-4018
Türkiye


Eda YEŞİL>
KIRIKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0002-2525-6745
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 12 Mart 2022
Kabul Tarihi 23 Haziran 2022
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Durucan, A. & Yeşil, E. (2022). The Impact of Defence Expenditures on Government Debt, Budget Deficit, and Current Account Deficit: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries . Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi , 17 (3) , 686-701 . DOI: 10.17153/oguiibf.1086651