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The Nexus between Usd Parity and Trade Balance of BRICS-T Countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 3, 763 - 786, 01.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1086986

Öz

Unlike many previous studies that focused on the link between trade balance and exchange rate parities through time series models, panel data models were applied mainly to BRICS-T countries. Comparative variances of trade balances against USD/local currency parity were revealed, and the most sensitive countries were Brazil, Turkey, and Russia. According to the panel EGLS analysis, the same parity had a non-significant negative impact on the trade balance in the short run. A significant long-term effect was found in the FMOLS analysis. Panel VAR and VECM generalized impulse response analysis revealed the negative impact of the USD/domestic currency parity on the trade balance of BRICS-T. The J-curve was observed briefly in the analyses.

Kaynakça

  • Akbostanci, E. (2004), “Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40(5), 57-73.
  • Alemu, A. M. & J. S. Lee (2014). “Is currency depreciation always good for improving trade balance? An empirical analysis of selected Asian economies” Indian Journal of Finance, 8(7), 7- 17.
  • Arize, A. C. (1994). “Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance”. International Economic Journal, 8(3), 1-9.
  • Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J. & Igwe E. U. (2017). “Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach”International Review of Economics & Finance, 49, 313-326.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee M. & Kutan, A. (2009). “The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe”. Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Vol. 41(20), 2523-2532.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Wang, Y. (2006). “The J curve: China versus her trading partners. Bulletin of Economic Research, 58(4), 323-343.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Bose, N. & Zhang, Y. (2018). “Asymmetric cointegration, nonlinear ARDL, and the J-Curve: A bilateral analysis of China and its 21 trading partners”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(13), 3131-3151.
  • Bhat, S. A. & Bhat, J. A. (2021). “Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach”. Foreign Trade Review, 56(1), 71-88.
  • Broll, U., Mukherjee, S. & Sensarma, R. (2020). “Risk preferences estimation of exporting firms under exchange rate uncertainty”. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.67, 126-136.
  • Cheung, Y. W. & Sengupta, R. (2013). “Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: an analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 39, 231-245.
  • Chiloane, L., Pretorius, M., & Botha, I. (2014). “The relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance in South Africa” Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 7(2), 299-314.
  • Chit, M. M., Rizov, M. & Willenbockel, D. (2010). “Exchange rate volatility and exports: New empirical evidence from the emerging East Asian economies” World Economy, 33(2), 239-263.
  • Corporate Finance Institute, https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/balance-of-trade-bot/
  • Deloitte,https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/za/Documents/process-and operations/ZA_Rand_Depreciation_brochure.pdf
  • Eurostat, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/home Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008). “The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners”, Journal of Asian Economics, 19(3), 236-243.
  • Himarious D. (1989). “Do devaluations improve the trade balance? The evidence revisited, Economic Inquiry, Vol.27, Issue 1, 143-168.
  • Houthakker H. & Magee, S.P. (1969). “Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics” Vol. 51, Issue 2, 111-125.
  • Igue, N. N., & Ogunleye, T. S. (2014). “Impact of real exchange rate on trade balance in Nigeria” African Development Review, 26(2), 347-358.
  • Iyke, B. N. & Ho, S. Y. (2017). “The real exchange rate, the Ghanaian trade balance, and the J- curve”, Journal of African Business, 18(3), 380-392.
  • Jadoon, A. U. & Guang, Y. (2019). “The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Trade Balance of Pakistan” International Journal of Economic Sciences, 8(1), 68-80.
  • Kamal, K. M. M. (2015). “A Panel Data Analysis to Evaluate the Effect of Currency Devaluation on Major Export Items” Dhaka University Journal of Science, 63(1), 53-57.
  • Kenen, P. B. (1989). “The International Economy” 2. Edition, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
  • Krugman P. R., Obstfeld, M. & Melitz, M.J. (2012). “International Economics: Theory & Policy”.
  • Kyophilavong, P., Shahbaz, M., Rehman, I. U., Souksavath, S. & S. Chanthasene (2018). “Investigating the Relationship between Trade Balance and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Laos’ Trade with Thailand”. Global Business Review, 19(3), 590-603.
  • Lerner A.P. (1944). “The Economics of Control: Principles of Welfare Economics” The Macmillan Company, New York.
  • Li Y. & Wang, X. (2019). “Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on China-South Korea Bilateral Trade Balance” International Conference on Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Earth and Environmental Science.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). “Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303-325.
  • Marshall A. (1923). “Money, credit and commerce”. London: Macmillan.Ninth Edition, Addison- Wesley, Boston.
  • Mminele (2016). https://www.bis.org/review/r160720c.htm
  • Mustafa, M., Rahman, M., & Guru-Gharana, K. K. (2015). “Brazil-US trade balance and exchange rate: Dynamic empirics” The Journal of Developing Areas, 151-164.
  • Nicita, A. (2013). “Exchange rates, international trade and trade policies” International Economics, 135, 47-61.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). “Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis” Econometric theory, 597-625.
  • Qiu, B., Das, K. K., & Reed, W. R. (2020). “The effect of exchange rates on Chinese trade: A dual margin approach” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(15), 3709-3731.
  • Radulescu, I.G., Panait M. & Voica, C. (2014). “BRICS Countries Challenge to the World Economy New Trends”, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol.8, 605-613.
  • Reis Gomes, F. A. & Senne Paz, L. (2005). “Can real exchange rate devaluation improve the trade balance? The 1990–1998 Brazilian case” Applied Economics Letters, 12(9), 525-528.
  • Schaling, E. & Kabundi, A. (2014). “The exchange rate, the trade balance and the J-curve effect in South Africa. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 17(5), 601-608.
  • Singh, T. (2004). “Testing J-curve hypothesis and analysing the effect of exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade in India” Empirical economics, 29(2), 227-245.
  • Trademap, https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
  • Vieira, F. V. & R. MacDonald (2016). “Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis” Journal of Economic Studies, Vol.43, 203-221.
  • Wang C-H, Lin C-H. A. & Yang, C. (2012). “Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners”, Japan and the World Economy, 24(4), 266– 273.
  • Warner D. & Kreinin, M. (1983). “Determinants of International Trade Flows” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 65, Issue.1, 96-104.
  • Wilson P. (2001). “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J- Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea” Open Economies Review, Vol. 12, Issue.4, 389-413.
  • World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org(GDP Per Capita, Gross Capital Formation, High Technology Exports, Service Sector Exports Data)
  • Zhang, G. & MacDonald, R. (2014). “Real exchange rates, the trade balance and net foreign assets: long-run relationships and measures of misalignment” Open Economies Review, 25(4), 635-653.

Amerikan Doları Paritesi ile BRICS-T Ülkelerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesi Arasındaki İlişki

Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 3, 763 - 786, 01.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1086986

Öz

Zaman serisi modelleri aracılığıyla ticaret dengesi ve döviz kuru pariteleri arasındaki bağlantıya odaklanan önceki birçok çalışmanın aksine, bu çalışmada çoğunlukla BRICS-T ülkeleri için panel veri modelleri uygulanmıştır. Ticaret dengelerinin USD/ yerli para birimi paritesine karşı karşılaştırmalı varyansları ortaya çıkarılıp en duyarlı olan ülkeler Brezilya, Türkiye ve Rusya olarak bulunmuştur. Panel EGLS analizine göre aynı paritenin ticaret dengesi üzerinde kısa vadede önemli olmayan bir olumsuz etkisi olmuştur. FMOLS sonucuna göre, uzun vadeli anlamlı etki bulunmuştur. Panel VAR ve VECM genelleştirilmiş etki tepki analizi, USD/yerli para birimi paritesinin BRICS-T'nin ticaret dengesi üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini ortaya çıkarmıştır. J-eğrisi analizlerde kısa süreliğine gözlemlenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Akbostanci, E. (2004), “Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40(5), 57-73.
  • Alemu, A. M. & J. S. Lee (2014). “Is currency depreciation always good for improving trade balance? An empirical analysis of selected Asian economies” Indian Journal of Finance, 8(7), 7- 17.
  • Arize, A. C. (1994). “Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance”. International Economic Journal, 8(3), 1-9.
  • Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J. & Igwe E. U. (2017). “Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach”International Review of Economics & Finance, 49, 313-326.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee M. & Kutan, A. (2009). “The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe”. Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Vol. 41(20), 2523-2532.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Wang, Y. (2006). “The J curve: China versus her trading partners. Bulletin of Economic Research, 58(4), 323-343.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Bose, N. & Zhang, Y. (2018). “Asymmetric cointegration, nonlinear ARDL, and the J-Curve: A bilateral analysis of China and its 21 trading partners”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(13), 3131-3151.
  • Bhat, S. A. & Bhat, J. A. (2021). “Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach”. Foreign Trade Review, 56(1), 71-88.
  • Broll, U., Mukherjee, S. & Sensarma, R. (2020). “Risk preferences estimation of exporting firms under exchange rate uncertainty”. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.67, 126-136.
  • Cheung, Y. W. & Sengupta, R. (2013). “Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: an analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 39, 231-245.
  • Chiloane, L., Pretorius, M., & Botha, I. (2014). “The relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance in South Africa” Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 7(2), 299-314.
  • Chit, M. M., Rizov, M. & Willenbockel, D. (2010). “Exchange rate volatility and exports: New empirical evidence from the emerging East Asian economies” World Economy, 33(2), 239-263.
  • Corporate Finance Institute, https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/balance-of-trade-bot/
  • Deloitte,https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/za/Documents/process-and operations/ZA_Rand_Depreciation_brochure.pdf
  • Eurostat, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/home Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008). “The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners”, Journal of Asian Economics, 19(3), 236-243.
  • Himarious D. (1989). “Do devaluations improve the trade balance? The evidence revisited, Economic Inquiry, Vol.27, Issue 1, 143-168.
  • Houthakker H. & Magee, S.P. (1969). “Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics” Vol. 51, Issue 2, 111-125.
  • Igue, N. N., & Ogunleye, T. S. (2014). “Impact of real exchange rate on trade balance in Nigeria” African Development Review, 26(2), 347-358.
  • Iyke, B. N. & Ho, S. Y. (2017). “The real exchange rate, the Ghanaian trade balance, and the J- curve”, Journal of African Business, 18(3), 380-392.
  • Jadoon, A. U. & Guang, Y. (2019). “The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Trade Balance of Pakistan” International Journal of Economic Sciences, 8(1), 68-80.
  • Kamal, K. M. M. (2015). “A Panel Data Analysis to Evaluate the Effect of Currency Devaluation on Major Export Items” Dhaka University Journal of Science, 63(1), 53-57.
  • Kenen, P. B. (1989). “The International Economy” 2. Edition, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
  • Krugman P. R., Obstfeld, M. & Melitz, M.J. (2012). “International Economics: Theory & Policy”.
  • Kyophilavong, P., Shahbaz, M., Rehman, I. U., Souksavath, S. & S. Chanthasene (2018). “Investigating the Relationship between Trade Balance and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Laos’ Trade with Thailand”. Global Business Review, 19(3), 590-603.
  • Lerner A.P. (1944). “The Economics of Control: Principles of Welfare Economics” The Macmillan Company, New York.
  • Li Y. & Wang, X. (2019). “Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on China-South Korea Bilateral Trade Balance” International Conference on Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Earth and Environmental Science.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). “Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303-325.
  • Marshall A. (1923). “Money, credit and commerce”. London: Macmillan.Ninth Edition, Addison- Wesley, Boston.
  • Mminele (2016). https://www.bis.org/review/r160720c.htm
  • Mustafa, M., Rahman, M., & Guru-Gharana, K. K. (2015). “Brazil-US trade balance and exchange rate: Dynamic empirics” The Journal of Developing Areas, 151-164.
  • Nicita, A. (2013). “Exchange rates, international trade and trade policies” International Economics, 135, 47-61.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). “Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis” Econometric theory, 597-625.
  • Qiu, B., Das, K. K., & Reed, W. R. (2020). “The effect of exchange rates on Chinese trade: A dual margin approach” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(15), 3709-3731.
  • Radulescu, I.G., Panait M. & Voica, C. (2014). “BRICS Countries Challenge to the World Economy New Trends”, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol.8, 605-613.
  • Reis Gomes, F. A. & Senne Paz, L. (2005). “Can real exchange rate devaluation improve the trade balance? The 1990–1998 Brazilian case” Applied Economics Letters, 12(9), 525-528.
  • Schaling, E. & Kabundi, A. (2014). “The exchange rate, the trade balance and the J-curve effect in South Africa. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 17(5), 601-608.
  • Singh, T. (2004). “Testing J-curve hypothesis and analysing the effect of exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade in India” Empirical economics, 29(2), 227-245.
  • Trademap, https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
  • Vieira, F. V. & R. MacDonald (2016). “Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis” Journal of Economic Studies, Vol.43, 203-221.
  • Wang C-H, Lin C-H. A. & Yang, C. (2012). “Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners”, Japan and the World Economy, 24(4), 266– 273.
  • Warner D. & Kreinin, M. (1983). “Determinants of International Trade Flows” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 65, Issue.1, 96-104.
  • Wilson P. (2001). “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J- Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea” Open Economies Review, Vol. 12, Issue.4, 389-413.
  • World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org(GDP Per Capita, Gross Capital Formation, High Technology Exports, Service Sector Exports Data)
  • Zhang, G. & MacDonald, R. (2014). “Real exchange rates, the trade balance and net foreign assets: long-run relationships and measures of misalignment” Open Economies Review, 25(4), 635-653.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Huseyin CETIN> (Sorumlu Yazar)
BURSA TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0001-7296-0447
Türkiye


Yunus Emre SÜRMEN>
BURSA TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0002-4031-8676
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 13 Mart 2022
Kabul Tarihi 30 Haziran 2022
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022, Cilt 17, Sayı 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Cetın, H. & Sürmen, Y. E. (2022). The Nexus between Usd Parity and Trade Balance of BRICS-T Countries . Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi , 17 (3) , 763-786 . DOI: 10.17153/oguiibf.1086986