The Nexus between Usd Parity and Trade Balance of BRICS-T Countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 3, 763 - 786, 01.12.2022

Huseyin Cetın , Yunus Emre Sürmen

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1086986

Öz

Unlike many previous studies that focused on the link between trade balance and exchange rate parities through time series models, panel data models were applied mainly to BRICS-T countries. Comparative variances of trade balances against USD/local currency parity were revealed, and the most sensitive countries were Brazil, Turkey, and Russia. According to the panel EGLS analysis, the same parity had a non-significant negative impact on the trade balance in the short run. A significant long-term effect was found in the FMOLS analysis. Panel VAR and VECM generalized impulse response analysis revealed the negative impact of the USD/domestic currency parity on the trade balance of BRICS-T. The J-curve was observed briefly in the analyses.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange rate, Trade Balances, Panel Data Analysis, Wavelet Analysis

Amerikan Doları Paritesi ile BRICS-T Ülkelerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesi Arasındaki İlişki

Öz

Zaman serisi modelleri aracılığıyla ticaret dengesi ve döviz kuru pariteleri arasındaki bağlantıya odaklanan önceki birçok çalışmanın aksine, bu çalışmada çoğunlukla BRICS-T ülkeleri için panel veri modelleri uygulanmıştır. Ticaret dengelerinin USD/ yerli para birimi paritesine karşı karşılaştırmalı varyansları ortaya çıkarılıp en duyarlı olan ülkeler Brezilya, Türkiye ve Rusya olarak bulunmuştur. Panel EGLS analizine göre aynı paritenin ticaret dengesi üzerinde kısa vadede önemli olmayan bir olumsuz etkisi olmuştur. FMOLS sonucuna göre, uzun vadeli anlamlı etki bulunmuştur. Panel VAR ve VECM genelleştirilmiş etki tepki analizi, USD/yerli para birimi paritesinin BRICS-T'nin ticaret dengesi üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini ortaya çıkarmıştır. J-eğrisi analizlerde kısa süreliğine gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz kuru, Ticaret Dengesi, Panel Veri Analizi, Dalgacık Analizi

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