Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Dinamikleri ve Döviz Kurunun Yurtiçi Fiyatlara Geçiş Etkisi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1, 252 - 270, 01.04.2023

Mustafa Karabacak

https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1255298

Cited By: 2

Öz

1980’li yıllardan beri popüler bir araştırma konusu olan döviz kuru geçiş etkisi hem enflasyonu öngörmek açısından önemli bir enformasyon kaynağı olmakta hem de çeşitli kanallardan enflasyonu tetiklemekte, hatta beslemektedir. Dolayısıyla, politika yapıcılar için önemli bir sinyal görevi görmektedir. Bu bağlamda Türkiye için yapılan çalışmalarda, 2001 krizinin ardından değişen kur rejimi ve para politikası stratejisinin etkisiyle geçiş etkisinin azaldığı görülse de 2016’dan itibaren kurdaki ve enflasyondaki hızlı artış döviz kuru geçiş etkisini yeniden gündeme getirmiştir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada 2003Q1-2022Q3 döneminde, Türkiye’de döviz kuru geçiş etkisinin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bulgular Enflasyon Hedeflemesine geçiş ile birlikte geçiş etkisinin de azaldığı yönündedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz kuru geçiş etkisi, Enflasyon, ARDL Modeli

Dynamics of Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Turkey

Öz

The exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), a popular topic since the 1980s, is an important source of information for forecasting inflation and can trigger or even fuel inflation through various channels. Therefore, it is an important signal for policymakers. In this context, although studies for Turkey show that ERPT declined after the 2001 crisis due to the change in the exchange rate regime and monetary policy strategy, the rapid increase in exchange rates and inflation since 2016 has put the ERPT back on the agenda. Therefore, this study aims to estimate ERPT in Turkey for the period 2003Q1-2022Q3. The results suggest that ERPT has decreased with the transition to inflation targeting.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate Pass-through, Inflation, ARDL Model

Kaynakça

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