Yenilenebilir Enerji, Enerji İthalatından Kaynaklanan Enflasyonist Baskıları Azaltabilir mi? Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 698 - 720, 17.03.2026

Emre Akusta

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1588792

https://izlik.org/JA69SA46BT

Öz

Bu çalışma, yenilenebilir enerjinin Türkiye'de enerji ithalatından kaynaklanan enflasyonist baskıları azaltma potansiyelini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, birim kök analizi kapsamında yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Zivot & Andrews ile Lee & Strazicich testleri kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Johansen ve Hatemi-J eşbütünleşme testleri aracılığıyla incelenmiştir. Uzun dönem katsayıları DOLS ve FMOLS yöntemleri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulguların sağlamlığı ise ayrıca ARDL yaklaşımı ile test edilmiştir. Ayrıca, enerji ithalatından kaynaklanan enflasyonist baskıları hafifletmede yenilenebilir enerjinin etkisini ölçmek için bir etkileşim terimi oluşturulmuştur. Sonuçlar, enerji ithalatı ve döviz kurunun enflasyon üzerinde artırıcı bir etkiye sahipken, yenilenebilir enerji ve etkileşim teriminin azaltıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. DOLS, FMOLS ve ARDL sonuçları birbirini desteklemektedir. Ayrıca, her iki modelde de yenilenebilir enerjinin enerji ithalatından kaynaklanan enflasyonist baskıları hafifletme etkisi, yenilenebilir enerjinin doğrudan enflasyonu düşürücü etkisinden daha güçlüdür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yenilenebilir enerji , Enerji ithalatı , Enflasyon , Etkileşim terimi , Yapısal kırılmalar

Can Renewable Energy Mitigate Inflationary Pressures from Energy Imports? Evidence from Türkiye

https://izlik.org/JA69SA46BT

Öz

This study analyses the potential of renewable energy to reduce inflationary pressures arising from energy imports in Türkiye. Annual data for the period 1980-2022 are used in the analysis. In this study, unit root properties are examined using the Zivot-Andrews and Lee-Strazicich tests, both of which explicitly account for structural breaks. Cointegration is investigated via the Johansen and Hatemi-J cointegration tests. Long-run coefficients are subsequently estimated using the DOLS and FMOLS estimators. The robustness of the empirical findings is further assessed using the ARDL approach. In addition, an interaction term is constructed to measure the impact of renewable energy in alleviating inflationary pressures arising from energy imports. The results show that energy imports and exchange rate have an increasing impact on inflation, while renewable energy and the interaction term have a decreasing impact. DOLS, FMOLS, and ARDL results support each other. Moreover, in both models, the impact of renewable energy in mitigating inflationary pressures stemming from energy imports is stronger than the direct disinflationary impact of renewable energy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Renewable energy , Energy imports , Inflation , Interaction term , Structural breaks

Kaynakça

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