HIC ve IBT Grupları İçin Feldstein–Horioka Bulmacasının Test Edilmesi: Gizli Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 154 - 173, 17.03.2026

Mikail Pehlivan

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1743740

https://izlik.org/JA54GY79PE

Öz

Bu çalışma, yatay kesit bağımlılığını, eğim heterojenliğini ve asimetrik şokları dikkate alan bootstrap panel nedensellik yaklaşımıyla 1970-2024 döneminde yüksek gelirli (HIC) ve IDA-IBRD borçlu (IBT) ekonomiler için Feldstein–Horioka bulmacasını yeniden incelemektedir. Simetrik ve asimetrik tam-örneklem testleri, ulusal tasarrufun yurt içi yatırımın nedeni olmadığını ve yüksek sermaye hareketliliğini göstermektedir. Buna karşın kayan pencere tahminleri, gizli ve zamanla değişen bağları ortaya çıkarmakta; tasarruf kaynaklı yatırım, HIC grubunda 1993’teki ERM krizi ve 2021 pandemi toparlanması sırasında yeniden belirirken; IBT grubunda 1990-95, 2000-02 ve 2004’te ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ayrıca IBT için 1984-85 ve 1987-88’de pozitif şok; 2020’de ise HIC için negatif şok gözlemlenmektedir. Katsayı işaretlerindeki değişim, yüksek kredi artışları sırasında yatırım-çekişli bir süreci desteklemektedir. Bulgular, sermaye hareketliliğinin kalıcı değil, dönemsellik gösterdiğini ortaya koymakta; politika önerileri, dış finansmanın aniden kesildiği dönemlerde yatırımı korumak için iç tasarrufun güçlendirilmesi, yerel finansman araçlarının çeşitlendirilmesi ve karşıt-döngüsel tamponların önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sermaye hareketliliği , iç tasarruf , bootstrap panel nedensellik , asimetrik şoklar , kayan pencere analizi

Testing the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle for HIC and IBT Groups: Evidence from Hidden Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Analysis

https://izlik.org/JA54GY79PE

Öz

Using a bootstrap panel-causality framework that accommodates cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity and asymmetric shocks, this study re-examines the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for high-income (HIC) and IDA-IBRD borrower (IBT) economies during 1970–2024. Symmetric and asymmetric full-sample tests indicate no significant causality from national saving to domestic investment, implying high average capital mobility. Rolling-window estimation, however, uncovers hidden, time-varying linkages. Saving-led investment re-emerges in HIC during the 1993 ERM turmoil and the 2021 pandemic rebound, while IBT exhibit pronounced causality in 1990-95, 2000-02 and 2004, with additional positive-shock episodes in 1984-85 and 1987-88 and a negative-shock episode for HIC in 2020. Coefficient signs switch over time, supporting an investment-pull narrative during credit booms. The evidence therefore portrays capital mobility as episodic rather than permanent. Policy implications highlight the importance of strengthening domestic saving mechanisms, broadening local funding instruments and maintaining counter-cyclical buffers to safeguard investment when external finance suddenly retreats.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Capital mobility , domestic saving , bootstrap panel causality , asymmetric shocks , rolling-window analysis

Kaynakça

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