Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Politikası, Faiz, Döviz Kuru ve Enflasyon Dinamikleri: 2006–2025 Dönemi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 96 - 132, 17.03.2026

Okan Şenol

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1757588

https://izlik.org/JA59TB69YS

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2006–2025 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisinde para arzı, nominal faiz oranı ve döviz kurunun enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini ARDL modeli ile incelemektedir. Ampirik analiz sonuçları, döviz kuru değişimlerinin enflasyon üzerinde güçlü ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu, para arzının ise anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Nominal faiz oranlarının etkisi ise sınırlı ve dönemsel olarak farklılık göstermektedir. Bulgular, 2018 sonrası uygulanan para politikalarının geleneksel çerçevenin dışına çıktığını ve özellikle döviz kuru geçişkenliğinin enflasyon dinamiklerinde belirleyici hale geldiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye Ekonomisi , Para Politikası , Enflasyon Belirleyicileri , ARDL Model

Monetary Policy, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in the Turkish Economy: An Empirical Analysis over the Period 2006–2025

https://izlik.org/JA59TB69YS

Öz

This study examines the impact of money supply, nominal interest rates, and exchange rates on inflation in the Turkish economy during the 2006–2025 period using the ARDL model. The empirical findings reveal that exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect inflation, while money supply has no meaningful influence. The effect of nominal interest rates is limited and varies across periods. These results suggest that Turkey’s monetary policy, especially after 2018, diverged from conventional frameworks, with exchange rate pass-through becoming the dominant factor in shaping inflation dynamics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turkish Economy , Monetary Policy , Determinants of Inflation , ARDL Model

Kaynakça

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