Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Tax Burden and Fertility Rates in Türkiye

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 26 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 2511 - 2527, 30.12.2025

Serkan Işık

Öz

Turkey is undergoing a transformation in both family structure and demographic composition. The total fertility rate has remained below 2.1 for the past eight years and declined to 1.48 in 2024, falling below the critical threshold of 1.50. This represents a demographic turning point, increasing the risk of population aging and contraction. Using data from 1965–2023, this study investigates the long-term relationship between tax burden and total fertility rate. Considering economic and structural breaks, the Fractional Frequency Fourier ADL test was applied, and FMOLS was used for long-term estimation. The findings indicate that higher tax burden reduces fertility rates, while tax-reducing measures may positively influence family formation decisions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tax burden , fertility rate , Fourier ADL , FMOLS , Türkiye

Türkiye’de Vergi Yükü İle Doğum Oranları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi

Öz

Türkiye’de aile yapısı ve demografik yapı dönüşüm sürecindedir. Toplam doğurganlık hızı son sekiz yıldır 2,1’in altında olup, 2024’te 1,48’e gerileyerek kritik eşik kabul edilen 1,50’nin altına düşmüştür. Bu durum, nüfusun yaşlanma ve daralma riskini artıran önemli bir kırılma noktasıdır. Çalışmada, 1965–2023 verileriyle vergi yükü ile toplam doğurganlık hızı arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Ekonomik ve yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak Kesirli Frekanslı Fourier ADL testi uygulanmış, uzun dönem tahminleri için FMOLS yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, vergi yükündeki artışın doğurganlığı azalttığını ve vergi yükünü hafifletici politikaların aile kurma kararlarını teşvik edebileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vergi yükü , doğurganlık hızı , Fourier ADL , FMOLS , Türkiye

Kaynakça

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