Konut piyasasında çoklu balon oluşumu: Türkiye geneli ve TR71 bölgesinden ampirik deliller

Öz

Konut piyasasındaki balon oluşumları nedeniyle ABD’de başlayan Mortgage Krizinin küresel ölçekte tarihteki en önemli mali krizlerinden birisine dönüşmesi, konut piyasasındaki balonların makroekonomik sonuçları konusunda dramatik bir tecrübe oluşturmuştur. Bu kapsamda bu çalışmada Türkiye Genelinin yanı sıra Niğde, Nevşehir, Aksaray, Kırşehir ve Kırıkkale’nin yer aldığı TR71 Bölgesinde Ocak 2010-Temmuz 2021 arası dönemde konut piyasasında balonlarının tespit edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda konut piyasasında çoklu balonların tespiti için Genelleştirilmiş SADF yöntemi kullanılırken, balon oluşumlarının başlangıç ve bitiş tarihlerinin tespiti için Backwards SADF yöntemi kullanılmıştır. GSADF testi her iki örneklem için de konut piyasasında balonların varlığını göstermektedir. BSADF testi sonuçlarına göre ise, veri dönemde Türkiye Geneli için 2013A02-2013A12, 2014A06-2017A07, 2018A02-2019A10 ve 2020A06-2020A08 olmak üzere 4 ve TR71 Bölgesi için 2011A12-2012A01, 2012A11-2013A02 ve 2018A02-2019A06 olmak üzere 3 balon oluşum dönemi tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, balon oluşum dönemlerinde ipotekli konut satışların toplam konut satışları içindeki paylarının keskin bir şekilde azalması ekonomik birimlerin rasyonel davrandıklarının bir işareti olarak kabul edilebileceğinden, bu durumun balon oluşumun muhtemel bir finansal krize dönüşme olasılığını azalttığı ileri sürülebilir. Buna rağmen, ekonomik birimlerin balon oluşumuna gecikmeli olarak tepki vermesi, Türkiye’de konut balonlarının finansal krizlere yol açma ihtimali tamamen ortadan kaldırmamaktadır. Bu nedenle, konut ve finansal piyasalara yönelik regülasyonlarla piyasa sürekli takip etmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye Ekonomisi
• TR71
• Konut Balonu
• GSADF
• BSADF

Multiple bubble formation in the real estate market: Empirical evidence from Turkey and TR71 region

Abstract

The fact that the Mortgage Crisis, which started in the USA due to the bubble formations in the real estate (or housing) market, turned into one of the most important financial crises in history on a global scale has created a dramatic experience in the macroeconomic consequences of the bubbles in the real estate. In this context, in this study, it is aimed that possible bubbles in the real estate market is detected between January 2010 and July 2021 in TR71 region (Niğde, Nevşehir, Aksaray, Kırşehir and Kırıkkale) as well as Turkey (general). In this direction, the Generalized SADF method was used to detect multiple bubbles in the real estate market, while the Backwards SADF method was used to determine the start and end dates of bubble formations. The GSADF test results demonstrate that there are bubbles in the real estate market for both samples. According to the results of the BSADF test results, in the data period, it has been determined that there are 4 bubbles formation periods for Turkey in general, including 2013M02-2013M12, 2014M06-2017M07, 2018M02-2019M10 and 2020M06-2020M08; and there are 3 bubbles formation periods for the TR71 Region, including 2011M12-2012M01, 2012M11-2013M02 and 2018M02-2019M06. However, since the sharp decrease in the share of mortgaged house sales in total house sales during bubble formation periods may be accepted as a sign that economic agents act rationally, it may be argued that this situation reduces the possibility of bubble formation turning into a possible financial crisis. Despite this, the delayed reaction of economic agents to bubble formation does not completely eliminate the possibility of real estate bubbles causing financial crisis in Turkey. For this reason, real estate and financial markets should be constantly inspecting and monitored through regulations.

Keywords

• Turkish Economy
• TR71
• Housing Bubble
• GSADF
• BSADF

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