Feldstein-Horioka Bulmacası (FHB): G8 Ülkeleri üzerine bir analiz

Yıl 2022, , 189 - 207, 31.01.2022

Ayberk Nuri Berkman

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1011838

Cited By: 2

Öz

1970’lerin sonundan itibaren Bretton Woods sisteminin çökmesi ve küresel bütünleşmenin özellikle son elli yılda önemli ölçüde artmasıyla birlikte finansal serbestleşme ve küreselleşme hız kazanmıştır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve portföy yatırımları açısından yabancı sermaye akımları, özellikle yüksek büyüme oranlarına sahip, nispeten ucuz ancak nitelikli işgücüne sahip gelişmekte olan piyasalarda artmıştır. Feldstein ve Horioka (1980) çalışmasında temel olarak tasarruflardan yatırımlara doğru bir içsel ilişki olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Uluslararası iktisat ve Makroekonomik süreçlerle sofistike ilişkiler silsilesi ile açıklanabilen bu ilişki literatürde Feldstein – Horioka Bulmacası (FHB) olarak ifade edilmektedir. Bu çalışma, G8 ülkelerindeki (ABD, Almanya, Fransa, İngiltere, İtalya, Japonya, Kanada ve Rusya) ulusal tasarruflar ve yatırımlar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. 1996 – 2020 dönemleri için yıllık frekanstaki verilerden yararlanılarak yatay kesit bağımlılığı, delta homojenliği, Pesaran (2007) CIPS birim kök sınamaları ve Westerlund (2007) ve Westerlund ve Edgerton (2007) Bootstrap Panel Eşbütünleşme testleri ve son olarak Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse(2011) Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar G8 ülkelerinde FHB’nin önemli ölçüde mevcut olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre tasarruflardan yatırımlara doğru bir aktarımına ilişkin kanıtlara rastlanamamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Feldstein-Horioka Bulmacası, Ulusal Tasarruflar, Yatırımlar, G-8 Ülkeleri

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (FHP): An analysis on G8 Countries

Öz

Along with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system from the end of the 1970s and the increase in global integration, especially in the last fifty years, financial liberalization and globalization have accelerated. In terms of portfolio investments and foreign direct investments, foreign capital flows increased especially in emerging markets with high growth rates and relatively low-cost but skillful labor. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) basically argued that there was an internal relationship from savings to investments. This relationship, which can be explained by a series of sophisticated relations with international economics and macroeconomic processes, has been expressed as the Feldstein - Horioka Puzzle (FHP) in the literature. This study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between national savings and investments in the G8 countries (the USA, Germany, France, England, Italy, Japan, Canada, and Russia). Cross-sectional dependency, Delta Homogeneity, Pesaran (2007) CIPS unit root tests, Westerlund (2007) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) Bootstrap Panel Cointegration tests, and finally Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) Causality tests are performed utilizing the annual data over the period 1996–2020. The obtained results of the study reveal that FHP is not significantly present in the G8 countries. Accordingly, there is no evidence of a direct transfer from savings to investments.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle, National Savings, Investments, G-8 Countries

Kaynakça

• Akkoyunlu, Ş., 2020. Revisiting the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for Turkey. Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), pp.129-148.
• Ang, J. B., 2007. Are saving and investment cointegrated? The case of Malaysia (1965– 2003). Applied Economics, 39(17), pp.2167-2174.
• Artis, M. J. and Bayoumi, T, 1992. Global capital market integration and the current account. Money and Financial Markets, Cambridge, MS and Oxford: Blackwell, 1992, pp.297-307.
• Ay, A. and Özmen, I., 2017. Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin Yükselen Ekonomilerde Sınanması: Panel Veri Analiz. Sosyal Ekonomik Arastırmalar Dergisi, pp.1-18.
• Barros, C. P. and Gil-Alana, L. A., 2015. Investment and saving in Angola and the Feldstein– Horioka puzzle. Applied Economics, 47 (44), pp.4793-4800.
• Bayoumi, T., 1989. Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy or Endogenous Behavior?, IMF Working Paper, No: 89/66.
• Bayoumi, T., Sarno, L. and Taylor, M. P., 1996. Saving-Investment Correlations, European Capital Flows and Regional Risk Discusssion Paper. Department of Economics and Accounting, Liverpool: University of Liverpool.
• Blanchard, O. and Giavazzi, F., 2002. Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: the end of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle?. Brookings papers on economic activity, 2002 (2), pp.147-186.
• Brahmasrene, T., and Jiranyakul, K. (2009). Capital mobility in Asia: evidence from bounds testing of cointegration between savings and investment. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14(3), 262-269.
• Coakley, J., Kulasi, F. and Smith, R., 1996. Current account solvency and the Feldstein-- Horioka puzzle. The Economic Journal, pp.620-627.
• Coakley, J., Kulasi, F. and Smith, R., 1998. The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and capital mobility: a review”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 3(2), pp.169-188.
• Dooley, M., Frankel, J. and Mathieson, D. J., 1987. International capital mobility: What do saving-investment correlations tell us?. Staff Papers, 34 (3), 503-530.
• Drakos, A.A., Kouretas, G.P., Stavroyiannis, S. and Zarangas, L., 2017. Is the FeldsteinHorioka puzzle still with us? National saving-investment dynamics and international capital mobility: A panel data analysis across EU member countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 47, pp.76-88.
• Feldstein, M., 1983. Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run. European Economic Review, 21(1-2), pp.129-151.
• Feldstein, M., 1994. Tax policy and international capital flows. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130 (4), pp.675-697.
• Feldstien, M. and Bacchetta, P., 1991. National Saving and International Investment. NBER Working Paper Series, Paper No. 3164.
• Feldstein, M., & Horioka, C. (1980). Domestic saving and international capital flows. The Economic Journal, 90(358), 314–329. https://doi.org/10.2307/2231790
• Fieleke, N.S., 1982. National Saving and International Investment. Saving and government policy, pp.138-58.
• Fouquau, J. Hurlin, C. and Rabaud, I., 2008. The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: A Panel Smooth transition regression approach. Economic Modelling, 25, pp.284-299.
• Frankel, J., Dooley, M. and Mathieson, D.J. 1987. International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell US?. IMF Staff Papers, 34(3), pp.503- 530.
• Gregorio, J., & Guidotti, P. E. (1995). Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23(3), 433–448.
• Harberger, A. C., 1980. Vignettes on the world capital market. The American Economic Review, 70 (2), pp.331-337.
• Hericourt, J and Maurel M., 2005. The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Revisited: An ‘EuropeanRegional’ Perspective. William Davidson Institute Working Paper, No. 763.
• Katsimi, M. and Zoega, G., 2016. European integration and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(6), pp.834-852.
• Kim, S.H., 2001. The Saving-Investment Correlation Puzzle is Still a Puzzle. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, pp.1017-1034.
• Kollias, C., Mylonidis, N. and Paleologou, S.M., 2008. The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle across EU members: Evidence from the ARDL bounds approach and panel data. International Review of Economics & Finance, 17(3), pp.380-387.
• Krol, R., 1996. International Capital Mobility: Evidence from Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, pp.467-474.
• McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington, DC: The Brooking Institution.
• Marinheiro, C. F., 2008. Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Egypt. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(6), pp.1041-1056.
• Mastroyiannis, A., 2007. Current account dynamics and the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle: The case of Greece. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 4(1), pp.91-99.
• Murphy, R.G., 1984. Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries. Journal of international Money and Finance, 3(3), pp.327-342.
• Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (2000). The six major puzzles in international macroeconomics: Is there a common cause? Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
• Özmen, E. and Parmaksız, K., 2003. Exchange rate regimes and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: The French evidence. Applied Economics, 35(2), pp.217-222.
• Patra, S.K. and Mohanty, R.K., 2020. Does the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exist among South Asian countries? A regime‐switching approach. Journal of Public Affairs, 20(3), e2061.
• Penati, A. and Dooley, M., 1984. Current account imbalances and capital formation in industrial countries, 1949-81. Staff Papers, 31(1), pp.1-24.
• Petreska, D. and Mojsoska-Blazevski, N., 2013. The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and transition economies. Economic Annals, 58(197), pp.23-45.
• Raheem, I.D., 2017. More Finance or Better Finance in Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: Evidence from SSA Countries. Global Business Review, 18(1), pp.132-143.
• Raza, H., Zoega, G., and Kinsella, S., 2018. Asymmetries exist in the Feldstein–Horioka relationship. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27(6), pp.667-684.
• Roubini, N., 1988. Current Account and Budget Deficits in an Intertemporal Model of Consumption and Taxation Smoothing: A Solution to the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?. NBER Working Paper Series, Paper No. 2773.
• Sarno, L. and Taylor, M. P., 1998. Exchange controls, international capital flows and savinginvestment correlations in the UK: An empirical investigation. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 134(1), pp.69-98.
• Shaw, E. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
• Sinn, S., 1992. Saving-investment correlations and capital mobility: On the evidence from annual data. The Economic Journal, 102 (414), pp.1162-1170.
• Summers, L.H., 1988. Tax policy and international competitiveness. In Frenkel J. A. ed., International Aspects of Fiscal Policies (pp.349-386). University of Chicago Press.
• Taylor, A., 1994. Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered. NBER Working Paper Series, Paper No. 4892.
• Tesar, L.L., 1991. Savings, investment and international capital flows. Journal of International economics, 31(1-2), pp.55-78.