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STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST

Cilt: 17 Sayı: 4 10 Ekim 2024
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STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST

Öz

This study aims to investigate the stationarity of long-term real interest rates for the top 10 countries with the highest long-term real interest rates among OECD countries in order to determine the effectiveness of monetary policies to be implemented. The study is one of the first to consider both structural breaks and nonlinearity to determine the effectiveness of policies to be implemented regarding interest rates. As a result of the Ranjbar et al. (2018) unit root test allowing for both structural changes and nonlinearity, the long-term real interest rates are stationary at the level for Turkey and Colombia; whereas not stationary at the level for the USA, Chile, Hungary, Iceland, Korea, Norway, Poland, and Canada. According to the results, it was determined that the policies to be implemented regarding interest rates in Türkiye and Colombia would be ineffective because interest rates tend to be mean-reverting.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Monetary policy, Interest rate hysteresis, Fourier

Kaynakça

  1. Appelt, K. (2016). Keynes' theory of the interest rate: A critical approach. Theory, Methodology, Practice-Review of Business and Management, 12(01), 3-8.
  2. Atkins, F. J. and Coe, P. J., 2002. An ARDL Bounds Test of The Long-Run Fisher Effect in The United States and Canada. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24(2), 255-266.
  3. Atkins, F. J. and Serletis, A., 2003. Bounds Tests of The Gibson Paradox and The Fisher Effect: Evidence From Low‐Frequency International Data. The Manchester School, 71(6), pp. 673-679.
  4. Bai, J. and Perron, P., 2003. Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
  5. Balparda, B., Caporale, G. M. and Gil-Alana, L. A., 2015. The Fisher Relationship in Nigeria. Economics and Finance Working Paper Series, No. 15-10.
  6. Becker, R., Enders, W. and Lee, J., 2006. A Stationarity Test in The Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), pp. 381-409.
  7. Berument, H. and Froyen, R. T., 2021. The Fisher Effect on Long-Term UK Interest Rates in Alternative Monetary Regimes: 1844-2018. Applied Economics, pp. 1-15.
  8. Breeden, D. T., 1979. An Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model with Stochastic Consumption and Investment Opportunities. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(3), pp. 265-96.
  9. Canarella, G., Gil-Alana, L., Gupta, R. and Miller, S., 2020. The Behavior of Real Interest Rates: New Evidence From A Suprasecular Perspective. University of Pretoria Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 2020-93.
  10. Caporale, T. and Grier, K. B., 2000. Political Regime Change and The Real Interest Rate. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, pp. 320-334.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Alper, F. Ö., & Alper, A. E. (2024). STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(4), 944-957. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1510489
AMA
1.Alper FÖ, Alper AE. STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST. ÖHÜİİBFD. 2024;17(4):944-957. doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1510489
Chicago
Alper, Fındık Özlem, ve Ali Eren Alper. 2024. “STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 17 (4): 944-57. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1510489.
EndNote
Alper FÖ, Alper AE (01 Ekim 2024) STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 17 4 944–957.
IEEE
[1]F. Ö. Alper ve A. E. Alper, “STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST”, ÖHÜİİBFD, c. 17, sy 4, ss. 944–957, Eki. 2024, doi: 10.25287/ohuiibf.1510489.
ISNAD
Alper, Fındık Özlem - Alper, Ali Eren. “STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 17/4 (01 Ekim 2024): 944-957. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1510489.
JAMA
1.Alper FÖ, Alper AE. STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST. ÖHÜİİBFD. 2024;17:944–957.
MLA
Alper, Fındık Özlem, ve Ali Eren Alper. “STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST”. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 17, sy 4, Ekim 2024, ss. 944-57, doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1510489.
Vancouver
1.Fındık Özlem Alper, Ali Eren Alper. STATIONARITY OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATES: FINDINGS FROM NONLINEAR FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST. ÖHÜİİBFD. 01 Ekim 2024;17(4):944-57. doi:10.25287/ohuiibf.1510489