Enerji Fiyatlarının Dış Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Rolü: Doğrusal Olmayan İlişkinin Analizi

Öz

Enerji ülkelerin gerek ekonomik büyüme performansları gerekse de dış ticaret işlemleri açısından önemli bir üretim faktörüdür. Özellikle enerjide dışa bağımlı olan ülkelerde enerji harcamaları dış ticaret üzerinde kaydadeğer etkilere sahip olabilmektedir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, enerji giderleri ile dış ticaret açığı arasındaki ilişki doğrusal olmayan ekonometrik modellerle ele alınmıştır.  Veriler TÜİK ve MB’dan (TCMB) alınmış olup 2002:1- 2015:12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Doğrusal olmayan Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları enerji giderleri ve dış ticaret açığı değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Harcaması,Dış Ticaret Açığı,Doğrusal Olmayan Granger Nedensellik Analizi

Role of Energy Prices on Foreign Trade Deficit: Analiysis of Non-Linear Relationship

Abstract

Energy is an importantproduction factor for both countries’ economic growth and their foreign trade. Especially, in countries which are foreign source dependant on, energy expenditure may have considerable effects on foreign trade. For this purpose, the relationship in between energy expenditure and foreign trade deficit is discussed through non- linear econometric models. The data is taken from database of TUIK and Cebtral Bank (CBRT)for the term 2002:1- 2015:12. Non-linear Granger causality analiysis has shown that, the variables of energy consumption and foreign trade deficit have a bidirectional causality relationship. 

Keywords

• Energy Expanditure,Foreign Trade Deficit,Non-linear Granger Causality Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Ahmed, H. J. A., & Wadud, I. M. (2011). “Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses”. Energy Policy, 39(12), 8062-8069. Retrieved September 27, 2015, from Science Direct
2. Akram, Q. Farooq (2004). "Oil prices and exchange rates: Norwegian evidence." The Econometrics Journal.; 7(2):476, Retrieved November 10, 2015, from JSTOR
3. Baek, E., & Brock, W. (1992). “A general test for nonlinear granger causality: bivariate model”. Iowa State University and University of Wisconsin at Madison Working Paper.
4. Balke, N. S., Brown, S. P., & Yücel, M. K. (2002). “Oil price shocks and the US economy: Where does the asymmetry originate?”. The Energy Journal, 23(3), 27-52, Retrieved November 10, 2015, from JSTOR
5. Bayat, T., Şahbaz, A., & Akçacı, T. (2014). “Petrol fiyatlarının dış ticaret açığı üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği”. ERÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (42).
6. Bell, D., Kay, J., & Malley, J. (1996). “A non-parametric approach to non-linear causality testing”. Economics Letters, 51(1), 7-18, Retrieved December 12, 2015, from Science Direct
7. Berument, M. H., Ceylan, N. B., & Dogan, N. (2010). “The impact of oil price shocks on the economic growth of selected MENA countries”. The Energy Journal, 149-176, Retrieved November 11, 2015, from JSTOR
8. Blanchard, O. J., & Gali, J. (2007). “The Macroeconomic effects of oil shocks: why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?” (No. w13368). National Bureau of Economic Research [Web: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13368 Erişim Tarihi: 23.11.2015]

9. Brock W., Hsieh D., LeBaron B., 1991. “Nonlinear dynamics chaos and instability: statsitical theory and economic evidence”. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.
10. Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D., & LeBaron, B. (1996). “A test for independence based on the correlation dimension”. Econometric reviews, 15(3), 197-235. , Retrieved December 11, 2015, from Taylor & Francis Group.
11. Dawson , Jennifer C., (2006), "The effect of oil prices on exchange rates: a case study of the Dominican Republic" Honors Projects. Paper 9. [Web: http://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/econ_honproj/9 Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2016]
12. Demirbaş, M., Türkay, H., & Türkoğlu, M. (2009). “Petrol fiyatlarındaki gelişmelerin Türkiye'nin cari açığı üzerine etkisinin analizi”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 289-299
13. Diks, C., & Panchenko, V. (2006). “A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30(9), 1647-1669, , Retrieved January 7, 2016, from Science Direct
14. Diks, C., and Panchenko, V. A. (2006). “New statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing”. J. Econ. Dyn. Control, 30:1647–1669, Retrieved January 7, 2016, from Science Direct
15. Erdoğan, S., & Bozkurt, H. (2009). “Türkiye’de cari açığın belirleyicileri: MGARCH modelleri ile bir inceleme”. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 1(84), 135- 172, Retrieved January 18, 2016, from ULAKBİM
16. Erkan, B., Şentürk, M., Akbaş, Y. E., & Bayat, T. (2011). “Uluslararası Ham petrol fiyatlarındaki volatilitenin işsizlik göstergeleri üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği üzerine ampirik bulgular”. University of Gaziantep Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 715-730
17. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (2015) Ham petrol ve doğalgaz sektör raporu, [Web: http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2f1%2fDocuments%2fSekt%C3%B6r%20Raporu%2fTP_HAM_PETROL-DOGAL_GAZ_SEKTOR_RAPORU__2015.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 10.04.2017]
18. Farzanegan, M. R., & Markwardt, G. (2009). “The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy”. Energy Economics, 31(1), 134-151, Retrieved January 7, 2016, from Science Direct
19. Lescaroux, F., & Mignon, V. (2008). On the influence of oil prices on economic activity and other macroeconomic and financial variables. OPEC Energy Review, 32(4), 343-380, Retrieved January 5, 2016, from Wiley
20. Güneş, S., Gürel, S. P., & Cambazoğlu, B. (2013) “Dış ticaret hadleri, dünya petrol fiyatları ve döviz kuru ilişkisi, yapısal var analizi: Türkiye örneği”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 9, 20, 1-17.
21. Hamilton, J. D. (1983). “Oil and the macroeconomy since world war II”. The Journal of Political Economy, 228-248, Retrieved November 10, 2015, from JSTOR
22. Hamilton, J. D., & Herrera, A. M. (2004). “Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: the role of monetary policy: a comment”. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36(2), 265-286, Retrieved November 10, 2015, from JSTOR
23. Harri, A., Nalley, L., & Hudson, D. (2009). “The relationship between oil, exchange rates, and commodity prices”. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41(02), 501-510. [Web:https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S1074070800002959 Erişim Tarihi: 16.12.2015]
24. Hassan, S. A., & Zaman, K. (2012). “Effect of oil prices on trade balance: new insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan”.Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2125-2143, Retrieved January 7, 2016, from Science Direct
25. Hiemstra C., Jones Jonathan D., 1994. “Testing for linear and nonlinear granger causality in the stock price-volume relation”. Journal of Finance, 49, (5), 1639-1664, Retrieved November 22, 2015, from JSTOR
26. Hiemstra, C., & Jones, J. D. (1994). “Testing for linear and nonlinear Granger causality in the stock price‐volume relation”. The Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1639-1664, Retrieved November 1, 2015, from JSTOR
27. Iwayemi, A., & Fowowe, B. (2011). “Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria”. Energy policy, 39(2), 603-612, Retrieved January 7, 2016, from Science Direct
28. Jimenez-Rodriguez, R. (2008). “The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries”. Energy Economics, 30(6), 3095-3108, Retrieved January 7, 2016, from Science Direct
29. Karabulut, G., & Danışoğlu, A. Ç. (2006). “Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının büyümesini etkileyen faktörler”. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 47-63.
30. Keane, M. P., & Prasad, E. S. (1996). “The employment and wage effects of oil price changes: a sectoral analysis”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 389-400, Retrieved April 3, 2016, from SSRN
31. Khademvatani, A. (2003). “Crude oil price and aggregate economic activity: Asymmetric or symmetric relationship: evidence from canada’s economy” [Web https://economics.ca/2006/papers/0590.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 27.03.2016]
32. Kibritçioğlu, A., & Kibritçioğlu, B. (1999). “Ham petrol ve akaryakıt ürünü fiyat artışlarının Türkiye'deki enflasyonist etkileri”. Başbakanlık Hazine Müsteşarlığı. [Web: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0306/0306003.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 22.12.2015]
33. Kiseok Lee, Shawn Ni, and Ronald A. Ratti (1995), “Oil shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of price variability”, The Energy Journal, 16(4), 39-56, Retrieved November 1, 2015, from JSTOR
34. Kostakoğlu, S. Fatih ve Dibo, Mete (2011), “türkiye’de cari açık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin var yöntemi ile analizi’’, Paper Presented At Econanadolu 2011: Anadolu International Conference İn Economics II, June 15-17, Eskişehir.
35. Mork, K. A., Olsen, Ø., & Mysen, H. T. (1994). “Macroeconomic responses to oil price increases and decreases in seven OECD countries”. The Energy Journal, 19-35, Retrieved November 1, 2015, from JSTOR
36. Nikbakht, L. (2010). “Oil prices and exchange rates: The case of OPEC”.Business Intelligence Journal, 3(1), 83-92. [Web: http://www.saycocorporativo.com/saycouk/bij/journal/vol3no1/article_6.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 17.10.2015]
37. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik (2004) “Oil price shocks and the macroeconomy: what has been learned since 1996” The Energy Journal, 25(2), 1-32, Retrieved November 1, 2015, from JSTOR
38. Olomola, P.A., Adejumo, A.V., (2006). “Oil price shock and macroeconomic activities in Nigeria”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 3, 28–34, Retrieved February 8, 2016, from Researchgate
39. Özlale, Ü., & Pekkurnaz, D. (2010). “Oil prices and current account: a structural analysis for the Turkish economy”. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4489-4496. Retrieved February 17, 2016, from Science Direct
40. Peker, O., & Hotunluoğlu, H. (2009). “Türkiye’de cari açığın nedenlerinin ekonometrik analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23(3). 221-237, Retrieved February 15, 2016, from ULAKBİM
41. Robalo, P. B., & Salvado, J. C. (2008). “Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s” [Web: http://fesrvsd.fe.unl.pt/WPFEUNL/WP2008/wp529.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2016]
42. Su, L., & White, H. (2003). “Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood”. Journal of Econometrics, 182(1), 27-44, Retrieved February 17, 2016, from Science Direct
43. TEİAŞ (2017), Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de enerji görünümü, [Web:http://www.teias.gov.tr/eBulten/makaleler/2014/Dunyada_ve_Turkiyede_Enerji_Gorunumu.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 15.04.2017]
44. TÜİK (2017) Temel istatistikler, yıllara göre dış ticaret istatistikleri, [Web: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist, Erişim Tarihi: 11.04.2017]
45. Van Robays, I. (2012). “Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks”. [Web: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2150274 ,Erişim Tarihi: 14.05.2016
46. Yanar, R., & Kerimoğlu, G. (2011). “Türkiye’de enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve cari açık ilişkisi”. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 3(2), 191-201, Retrieved February 5, 2016, from SOBİAD
47. Yaylalı, M., & Lebe, F. (2012). “İthal ham petrol fiyatlarının türkiye’deki makroekonomik aktiviteler üzerindeki etkisi”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(1), 43-68.